Liam Duckstein
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Venezia welcome Fiorentina to the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo with both clubs sitting at rock bottom of the Serie A table after three rounds. Neither side has picked up a single point yet, which is a rare situation this early in a season for a club with Fiorentina’s pedigree. Venezia have shipped seven goals already, Fiorentina nine, so this fixture looks less like a clash of styles and more like a battle to stop the bleeding.
Perhaps the most interesting wrinkle here is that Fiorentina, despite being winless in three straight league games and carrying a -8 goal difference, still arrive as clear bookmaker favourites. That gap between reputation and current form is exactly the kind of scenario our punters at TipsGG like to dig into.
Watch Akor Adams closely for Venezia. He has scored twice and added an assist in his last five appearances, and his 15 shots in that span show he is the focal point of every Venezia attack. On the Fiorentina side, Franco Mastantuono has been their most dangerous creator, racking up 11 shots and 8 free kicks won over the same stretch, even though his side has struggled to convert chances into results.
Hot stat: both teams sit on zero points after three rounds, but the number that jumps out is Fiorentina’s defense conceding nine goals in just three matches, the worst defensive record in the entire division. Venezia are not far behind with seven goals against, meaning this fixture pits the two shakiest backlines in Serie A against each other.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venice |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction
We predict goals at both ends here. Venezia have conceded in every one of their last five matches and Fiorentina have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last four, so backing Over 2.5 total goals combined with both teams to score looks like the value angle. To be honest, neither side has shown the defensive organization to keep the other out for 90 minutes.
Venezia foul at a high rate, averaging over ten fouls per match across their last five games, and have picked up nine yellow cards in that span, a sign of a team chasing the game and committing bodies forward under Stroppa’s 3-4-2-1 setup. Fiorentina have been comparatively cleaner defensively in terms of cards, with six yellows in five matches, but their pass accuracy sits lower than Venezia’s, which tracks with a side still adapting to Vanoli’s 3-5-2 system. Expect an open, transition-heavy match rather than a possession battle.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Draw No Bet – Fiorentina |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Venezia’s form graph makes for grim reading. Their most recent outing ended in a 2-3 home defeat to Frosinone, a game in which they actually scored twice but could not hold the lead, a pattern that has repeated itself across their last four matches, all losses. Before that stretch they beat Modena 3-2, showing they can score goals, but the concession of at least two goals in four straight matches points to a defense that keeps breaking down under pressure.
Fiorentina’s last match was arguably worse on paper. They lost 1-2 to Torino, extending a run of three consecutive league defeats. Before that they were beaten 0-3 by Frosinone and hammered 0-4 by Roma, a truly alarming sequence for a club of their stature. Their only bright spot in the last five games was a 4-1 win over Benevento, but the underlying trend of leaking goals in bunches has not gone away under Vanoli.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Venezia and Fiorentina have met only twice in recent seasons, both fixtures coming in the 2024/25 Serie A campaign. Venezia won the reverse fixture 2-1, while the earlier meeting finished 0-0. There is no fresh statistical breakdown from those matches available in our database beyond the scorelines.
🚨Check out our dedicated Venezia vs Fiorentina stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Fiorentina the favourite
- Moneyline Venezia 2.98 | Fiorentina 2.34
- Draw 3.35
The market leans toward Fiorentina despite their poor start, which tells us bookmakers still trust the squad quality over the recent results. Venezia’s home odds around 2.98 suggest bookmakers see this as roughly a one-in-three chance for the hosts, which lines up with their own miserable away-adjusted form. We would not be surprised if the draw price offers hidden value given how evenly matched these two struggling sides currently look.
Possible Starting Lineups
Venezia possible starting eleven
- GK: Filip Stankovic
- DF: Joël Schingtienne, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Ridgeciano Haps, Thierry Correia
- MF: Enrique Pérez Muñoz, Gianluca Busio, Simon Sohm
- FW: Albion Rrahmani, Akor Adams, John Yeboah
Stroppa is likely to stick with a back line built around Bella-Kotchap and Schingtienne, both regulars over the last five games, while Akor Adams leads the line as the clearest goal threat. Busio and Sohm give the midfield some bite in the 3-4-2-1 shape that Stroppa has favoured recently.
Fiorentina possible starting eleven
- GK: David De Gea
- DF: Radu Drăguşin, Marin Pongračić, Luca Ranieri
- MF: Nicolo Fagioli, Cher Ndour, Marco Brescianini, Franco Mastantuono, João Mário
- FW: Mateo Pellegrino
Vanoli keeps faith with a back three of Drăguşin, Pongračić and Ranieri, all near-permanent fixtures, while Mastantuono operates as the creative spark behind Pellegrino in a 3-5-2 setup. Fagioli’s distribution from deep will be worth watching given how often Fiorentina has been caught out on the counter.
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Venezia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Our punters at TipsGG see goals flying in at both ends. Venezia’s high foul count and open defensive structure gives Fiorentina room to work with, but Fiorentina’s own defensive collapse in three straight matches means Akor Adams and company should get their chances too. We predict a narrow Fiorentina win or draw, with both teams scoring and the total climbing past 2.5 goals. Backing BTTS alongside Draw No Bet on Fiorentina feels like the smarter route than a straight moneyline punt given how unpredictable both sides have been.
