Sofia Quijada
Velez Sarsfield face Newells Old Boys on May 5th at Jose Amalfitani Stadium in Buenos Aires in a clash that could reshape the upper and lower ends of the Apertura Group A standings. Velez aim to cement their top-three position, while Newells look to escape the lower rungs. Matías Pellegrini and Jeronimo Russo stand out as key threats — Pellegrini for his creative output in Velez’s midfield and Russo as Newells’ most consistent attacking contributor. Hot stat: Velez Sarsfield have conceded only 9 goals in 14 matches, the second-best defensive record in Group A.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Argentine Primera Division 2026, Apertura Group A |
| 🏟 Venue: | Jose Amalfitani, Buenos Aires |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:15 CEST |
Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys prediction
We predict a home win for Velez Sarsfield. The data heavily favors them: they boast a 55% win probability by bookmaker consensus, a strong 53% win rate in 2026, and a consistent home performance. Newells Old Boys, by contrast, have just 3 wins in 16 league matches and a -12 goal difference. Velez’s recent form is more stable, with only two losses in their last 14 matches. The hosts average more total shots and maintain higher pass accuracy, suggesting they control possession and tempo.
Velez commit fewer fouls (40 in their last five games versus Newells’ 43), and collect slightly fewer yellow cards. Their controlled aggression and better passing shape their advantage in midfield. Newells play with a direct 4-4-2 but lack the firepower to regularly threaten organized defenses, and their away goal-scoring remains low.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Under 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Velez Sarsfield recent matches: Velez beat Gimnasia y Tiro 2-0, showing defensive security and clinical finishing. In their last four games, they’ve taken points from Union (2-2 draw), San Lorenzo (0-0 draw), and Central Cordoba (1-0 win). They rarely lose composure, keeping clean sheets in three of those fixtures. Midfielders Tobías Andrada and Manuel Lanzini both orchestrate play, while Florian Monzón delivers up front.
Newells Old Boys recent matches: Newells drew 1-1 with Instituto de Córdoba, with Jeronimo Russo and Juan Ignacio Ramírez the main attacking spark. They’ve improved slightly in recent games — including a 3-2 win at Union de Santa Fe and a 0-0 draw with San Lorenzo — but defensive lapses remain, as their 26 goals conceded indicate. Their only recent clean sheet came against San Lorenzo, a rare defensive highlight.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Velez Sarsfield | Newells Old Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 9 | 7 |
| Total shots | 67 | 43 |
| Free kicks | 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks | 16 | 13 |
| Total fouls | 40 | 43 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 80.1 | 76.8 |
| Interceptions | 44 | 37 |
| Offsides | 2 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Velez Sarsfield the favourite
- Moneyline Velez Sarsfield 1.70-1.73 | Newells Old Boys 5.20-5.75
- Draw 3.15-3.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.35 | Under 2.5 1.54
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.30 | No 1.60
Bookmakers price Velez as clear favorites. Odds for a Newells away win are distant, reflecting their poor form and goal deficit. Under 2.5 goals is short, matching the defensive nature of both sides. The market expects at least one clean sheet, with “both teams to score: no” strongly backed. TipsGG’s team sees little value in the away win or BTTS given Newells’ struggles on the road and Velez’s defensive record.
Newells Old Boys. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Velez Sarsfield possible starting eleven
- GK: Álvaro Montero
- DF: Joaquin Garcia, Elías Gómez, Emanuel Mammana, Aarón Quirós
- MF: Tobías Andrada, Manuel Lanzini, Rodrigo Aliendro, Diego Valdés
- FW: Florián Monzón, Dilan Godoy
This XI reflects coach Schelotto’s reliance on a 4-2-3-1. Montero secures the back, with Quirós and Garcia flanking Mammana. Lanzini and Andrada handle creative duties. Pellegrini rotates in as needed. Monzón’s finishing and Godoy’s runs are crucial for breaking the Newells defense.
Newells Old Boys possible starting eleven
- GK: Josué Reinatti
- DF: Armando Méndez, Saúl Salcedo, Oscar Salómon, Luca Regiardo
- MF: Facundo Samuel Guch, Luca Regiardo, Rodrigo Herrera, David Sotelo
- FW: Jeronimo Russo, Juan Ignacio Ramírez
Newells stick with a 4-4-2. Reinatti is the mainstay in goal. Salcedo and Salómon hold central defense. Russo and Ramírez form a direct forward pairing, with support from Herrera and Guch in midfield. Russo’s recent form stands out as Newells’ best chance for an away goal.
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Velez Sarsfield. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Velez Sarsfield to win. The hosts combine a resilient defense, strong passing accuracy, and disciplined midfield. Newells Old Boys rarely threaten away from home and concede frequently. We predict a low-scoring affair, with Velez likely to keep a clean sheet and edge the match, perhaps by a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline. Under 2.5 goals and “both teams to score: no” stand as the best value bets for this fixture.
