Alex MacQuoid
Two teams sitting in the bottom half of the Superettan table meet at Finnvedsvallen on June 16, and the stakes are already uncomfortable for both. Varnamo sit 15th with just 10 points from 11 games, one place above the relegation zone. Helsingborg are not much better at 9th with 14 points, but the gap between them feels bigger than four places suggests. The hosts have won zero of their last five matches, losing four of them, while Helsingborg at least picked up a win in that same window. What makes this interesting is that the only previous head-to-head on record ended 3-1 to Varnamo in a March 2025 friendly, which is a result the bookmakers have clearly not forgotten, pricing the home side as favorites despite their current miserable run.
Srdjan Tufegdzic’s Varnamo side have been shipping goals at an alarming rate, conceding 24 in 11 league games. That -10 goal difference is the second worst in the division. Stevie Grieve’s Helsingborg have their own defensive fragility, with 23 goals conceded, but they have at least scored 18 at the other end. Keep an eye on Helsingborg’s attacking output, because in their recent 2-1 win over Orebro they showed the ability to grind out a result even when not at their best. Varnamo’s form line reads ldlllwwwllldlll going back further, and that tells a story of a team that strings together brief recoveries before collapsing again.
Hot stat: Helsingborg have lost their last two matches by a combined score of 5-0, both against top-half opposition in Landskrona and Norrkoping. Varnamo have not scored in three of their last five matches.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Superettan 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Finnvedsvallen, Varnamo |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Varnamo vs Helsingborg prediction
The best value here is not necessarily on either team winning outright. Both sides are porous defensively and neither has shown consistent attacking quality over the last month. Varnamo’s 0-3 home loss to Osters in their most recent outing was damaging, and Helsingborg’s 0-3 away defeat to Landskrona just days ago means both teams arrive here with dented confidence. We think the most likely scenario is a low-scoring, scrappy affair where neither goalkeeper is totally convincing but big chances are hard to come by.
The draw at 3.40-3.50 carries real value given the form of both sides. Varnamo’s home advantage is factored into their favorite pricing, but they have won just three of eleven league games and their attacking output has dried up. Helsingborg away is not a comfortable proposition either, given they have lost three of their last five on the road. A draw makes sense for a match between two teams who look more worried about not losing than actually winning.
Both teams play a 4-4-2, which tends to produce a compact, physical midfield battle. The fouls count in matches involving these two is likely to be high, given the direct style both coaches prefer. Yellow cards are a reasonable side market to consider. With both teams struggling in front of goal, we lean toward under 2.5 goals, and honestly the Both Teams to Score market is closer to no than yes based on Varnamo’s recent blanks.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Draw at half-time |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Varnamo’s recent record is hard to look at. They have lost four of their last five, with the sole draw coming against bottom-side Norrby at home, a 2-2 result that flattered no one. The defeat to Osters, currently 7th in the table, was especially damaging. Osters are not a top team, and conceding three at home to them shows how fragile this Varnamo unit is right now. Their earlier losses to Assyriska United (0-2) and Falkenberg (1-3) came against genuinely strong sides, so there is some context, but losing 0-1 to Orebro, who are 12th and also struggling, is harder to excuse. Tufegdzic has not found a solution, and the team’s form line going back further shows this is a recurring pattern rather than a temporary dip.
Helsingborg’s situation is more nuanced. They beat Orebro 2-1 a week ago, which showed some grit, but the 1-3 loss to Varbergs and the 0-2 defeat to Norrkoping exposed their vulnerabilities against organized, high-pressing sides. The 0-3 result against Landskrona, their most recent match, is the one that stings, especially since Landskrona are only 8th. Their goal difference of -5 reflects a team that scores reasonably but leaks too many. The 2-2 draw with Oddevold earlier in the run was a match they could have won, and that kind of dropped result adds up. Grieve’s side have enough quality to beat Varnamo, but consistency is their problem.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Varnamo | Helsingborg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 8 |
| Total shots | 51 | 55 |
| Free kicks | 29 | 34 |
| Corner kicks | 21 | 23 |
| Total fouls | 36 | 54 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 78% | 82% |
| Interceptions | 31 | 39 |
| Offsides | 6 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Varnamo vs Helsingborg stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Varnamo the favourite
- Moneyline Varnamo 2.04-2.10 | Helsingborg 3.10-3.20
- Draw 3.40-3.50
- Over/Under Over 2.5 – | Under 2.5 –
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes – | No –
Varnamo at 2.04-2.10 reflects their home advantage and that 3-1 friendly win over Helsingborg, but the odds feel slightly generous given how poorly they have played recently. The bookmakers’ model weights home field heavily here. Helsingborg at 3.10-3.20 is arguably where some value sits if you believe their away form can improve, though the 0-3 away loss to Landskrona makes that a harder sell. The draw at 3.40-3.50 is the standout price. The average market expectation of 26% for the draw translates to implied odds of roughly 3.85, meaning the bookmakers are already offering above that. We think 26% underestimates how likely a stalemate is between two teams this low on confidence and goals.
Varnamo. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Varnamo possible starting eleven
- GK: J. Alvbåge
- DF: A. Lundqvist, D. Pavlovic, M. Björnsson, E. Lindqvist
- MF: O. Karlsson, A. Ericsson, M. Ekpolo, J. Nilsson
- FW: P. Lundqvist, A. Ouattara
Varnamo’s likely 4-4-2 keeps its shape but has looked disjointed in recent weeks, particularly in transition. The defensive line has been caught high too often, and the midfield two in the center have struggled to protect the back four. Tufegdzic has very little room to rotate without weakening the starting eleven further. The front two have been isolated and starved of service, which explains the scoreless runs. Honestly, there is no obvious player to point to as a match-winner in this squad right now, and that is the core of Varnamo’s problem.
Helsingborg possible starting eleven
- GK: A. Dahlin
- DF: M. Andersson, C. Lundström, O. Magnusson, J. Ekblad
- MF: S. Andersen, T. Björk, E. Söderberg, K. Ademi
- FW: N. Gueye, A. Jönsson
Helsingborg in a 4-4-2 have the shape to be competitive here. Grieve will likely set up to be compact and hit on the counter, which suits an away trip to a struggling home side. K. Ademi in the midfield has shown moments of quality and can dictate tempo when Helsingborg are organized. N. Gueye up front is the player to watch, capable of punishing a Varnamo defense that has been badly exposed this season. The question is whether Helsingborg’s own defensive fragility allows Varnamo to stay in the game long enough to make something happen.
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Helsingborg . Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This is a match between two teams who badly need points but look equally capable of throwing them away. Varnamo’s home record is not the fortress it should be at this stage of the season, and Helsingborg have not shown they can reliably pick up three points on the road. The head-to-head sample is tiny, just one friendly, so it does not carry much weight. What does matter is that both teams have conceded freely, both have struggled to score consistently, and both arrive here off the back of heavy defeats.
We think a draw is the most honest prediction for this fixture. Under 2.5 goals is the complementary bet that makes sense, given neither attack has been firing. The draw at 3.40+ represents real value against the implied market probability, and if Varnamo do find a goal it will likely come from a set piece rather than open play. Maybe Helsingborg nick something late, maybe Varnamo hold on for a point. Either way, this one feels like it ends tight.
