Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction: 26.04.2025 1. HNL Preview

With the 1. HNL regular season rolling towards its climax, Varazdin and Lokomotiva Zagreb meet at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec with both sides searching for crucial momentum. For Varazdin, perched a respectable fifth in the table, a win could cement their upper mid-table ambitions and keep hopes of leapfrogging into contention for European football alive. Meanwhile, Lokomotiva Zagreb, currently languishing in ninth, are desperate for points to escape the lower echelons and avoid a nervy run-in. Though neither team enters with blistering form, both have everything to play for—and in clashes with such stakes, tactical discipline and a clinical edge become paramount.

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Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction

Looking at the odds and recent form, Varazdin are slight favourites but hardly overwhelming ones. Their home advantage and relatively sturdy defensive record (just 20 goals conceded in 31 matches) give them an edge, especially against a Lokomotiva Zagreb side that has struggled not only for wins (just a 0% win rate in their last five matches) but for consistency at both ends of the pitch. Varazdin have drawn 3 of their last 5 and, crucially, have dropped fewer points at home. The reverse fixture earlier this season was tightly contested, and there’s a palpable sense both sides will approach this one with an extra layer of caution given their recent goal-scoring droughts.

From a style perspective, fouls and bookings have been piling up for both—Varazdin with 14 yellows in just five matches, Lokomotiva with 9—suggesting that the midfield battle could get scrappy. Lokomotiva have also accrued more fouls (69 v 65) but have mustered more corners, which hints at a direct approach despite their limited final third conversion. Both sides average a pass accuracy of around 85%, but Varazdin’s slightly steadier possession build (2126 passes versus Lokomotiva’s 1897 over the last five) might be decisive in a match likely settled by narrow margins. Expect a cagey, hard-fought contest with few clear-cut chances.

Team Analysis

Varazdin come into this fixture off a much-needed 1-0 victory over Slaven Belupo, finally breaking a run of draws and losses. That win snapped a four-match winless spell and showcased their defensive steel: a single goal proved enough, aided by a disciplined, if sometimes overly physical, midfield display. Their previous draw with title-chasing Hajduk Split (1-1) highlighted their resilience, and another solid performance against Dinamo Zagreb (1-1) shows they’re not easy to break down at home. The lack of attacking output is a concern, however—just 3 goals in their last five matches—but manager Nikola Safaric has clearly built a side that values solidity over swashbuckling flair.

Lokomotiva Zagreb’s recent fortunes paint a gloomier picture. Winless in five, they’ve succumbed to defeats against lowly Sibenik (1-2) and mid-table Slaven Belupo (0-2), though they did hold Hajduk Split (1-1) in a chaotic, evenly contested encounter. A goalless streak, which includes a 0-1 home reverse to high-flyers Rijeka, may well erode confidence, yet coach Ilija Loncarevic won’t be short of motivation in pushing his team to up the energy levels against a traditional rival. The goals have dried up (also 3 in 5 games), and defensive lapses (conceding more shots, accumulating 44 interceptions, but letting in more than a goal a game) have left supporters frustrated.

Most recent H2Hs: Varazdin dominates

🚨Read our full Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Varazdin the favourite

While Varazdin are favoured, the relatively close odds reflect the home side’s penchant for draws and Lokomotiva’s ability to complicate matches on the break. The market tips this as a low-scoring, potentially scrappy affair—and with neither side particularly prolific of late, the Under 2.5 goals prediction holds significant weight. The value is firmly with Varazdin in a draw-no-bet scenario, considering their home record and Lokomotiva’s abysmal away form.

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Key Players to Watch

Dimitar Mitrovski (Varazdin, Forward)
Mitrovski remains Varazdin’s most consistent attacking outlet. Two goals in five matches, 10 shots, and a habit of drifting into dangerous pockets make him a constant threat—even when opportunities are at a premium. His tireless work rate off the ball and knack for finding space in tight matches distinguishes him as a potential match-winner here.

Komnen Andrić (Lokomotiva Zagreb, Forward)
The focal point of Lokomotiva’s attack, Andrić can turn a game with a moment of individual brilliance. One goal in five and a noteworthy 125 passes attempted underline his involvement not just as a target man but as a creative fulcrum. With Lokomotiva struggling for goals, a spark from Andrić could be decisive if they’re to snatch a result.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Varazdin possible starting eleven

Based on recent appearances, Varazdin are poised to continue with a 4-2-3-1 formation, giving them defensive structure and flexibility on the break. The partnership of Boršić and Maglica has provided consistency at the back, while Marina offers composure in midfield. Vuk and Mitrovski’s movement and goal threat make them the players to watch. Expect Safaric to emphasise tactical discipline, with Dabro’s industry likely crucial in transitional play.

Lokomotiva Zagreb possible starting eleven

Lokomotiva Zagreb, under Loncarevic, are also expected to set out in a 4-2-3-1, mirroring their hosts. Kolinger anchors the defence with assurance, while Karačić’s surges add dynamism down the flank. Mudražija is their main creative force in midfield, and Andrić remains the obvious danger man up front. Their formation gives room for wing play, though build-up play has been their Achilles heel of late.

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The Verdict

So, where does the smart money go? We’re tipping Varazdin Draw No Bet as the main pick—driven by their steadier home record, defensive resilience, and Lokomotiva Zagreb’s ongoing troubles away from home. With both sides struggling in attack and not shy about putting in a foot, a physical midfield scrap beckons. Expect less of a goal fest and more of a chess match; a single moment—likely from Mitrovski or Andrić—could decide it. Ultimately, Varazdin’s greater consistency and well-drilled backline should see them edge it, but take the insurance on the DNB market given their draw-heavy form.

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