Varazdin vs Hajduk Split Prediction: 28.02.2026 1. HNL Preview

1. HNL fans are in for a compelling fixture on February 28, 2026 as Varazdin host Hajduk Split at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec. While Varazdin look to steady their mid-table status, Hajduk Split are pressing to keep pace at the league’s top end, bringing a sharp competitive edge to this encounter. Notably, both teams share a preferred 4-2-3-1 shape, which sets the stage for an intriguing tactical battle. In recent meetings, results have swayed back and forth – and with both managers relying on emerging domestic talent, the stakes here go beyond three points.

Nikola Safaric’s Varazdin will need creative spark from forward Matej Vuk, who netted in a recent tight outing. Meanwhile, Hajduk Split’s attack leans heavily on the form of Marko Livaja, who has tallied 2 goals from his last four matches and remains a direct threat to any backline.

One standout stat: Hajduk Split have earned an impressive 26 corner kicks over their last five matches, underlining their ability to sustain attacking pressure and exploit wide areas.

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Varazdin vs Hajduk Split prediction

Considering current form, squad quality, and underlying metrics, Hajduk Split enter as favourites. They boast a 75% win rate both in 2026 and throughout the last month, underlined by rock-solid defensive structure (only 6 yellow cards across their past five) and a robust attacking output (55 shots, 5 goals in the same stretch). Varazdin, meanwhile, are reeling from a crushing 0-4 loss to Dinamo Zagreb and have struggled against the league’s strongest sides.

Hajduk Split’s more consistent pressing and wide play have resulted in far more corners and offensive chances, while Varazdin’s back line—already conceding 3+ goals in recent outings—looks susceptible. Both teams favour a measured buildup but Hajduk Split’s precision (1,765 accurate passes in their last five matches vs Varazdin’s 857) grants them a notable possession edge.

Discipline and tactical control should also weigh into the scoreline: Hajduk Split commit nearly twice as many fouls per match (50 vs 26), but draw fewer yellow cards, suggesting their pressing is calculated rather than reckless.

Team Analysis

Varazdin: The recent 0-4 defeat against Dinamo Zagreb exposed limitations in defensive discipline and creative progression. Prior to that, conceding three goals to 8th-tier Radnik Krizevci in cup action only reinforced that their backline is shaky under sustained pressure. Midfield turnovers and lapses in marking have been a recurring theme, contributing to their negative goal differential. Still, talents like Matej Vuk and Ivan Mamut offer sporadic attacking threat, while set-piece routines have provided the occasional edge.

Hajduk Split: In contrast, Hajduk are fresh off a 1-0 win over Rijeka, followed by a confident 2-0 victory against Osijek. Their compact midfield, pivoting around Filip Krovinović and Rokas Pukstas, blends ball retention with incisive forward play. Despite a rare slip in a 0-1 loss to Gorica, Hajduk’s response was emphatic. Their dominance is not only built on clean sheets but also the ability to recover possession high up the pitch—evident in their 32 interceptions over the last five outings.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Varazdin vs Hajduk Split stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Hajduk Split the favourite

• Moneyline Varazdin 3.76 | Hajduk Split 2.04
• Draw 3.22
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.94 | Under 2.5 1.83
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.91 | No 1.84

The bookmakers’ prices reflect Hajduk Split’s status as firm favourites—a logic reinforced by their superior win rate, consistent results, and edge in key statistical metrics. Varazdin’s draw probability is comparable to their win chance, showing little market trust in a home upset. Meanwhile, odds are finely balanced on the goals market, hinting at a likely open contest but with Hajduk’s defence favoured to contain Varazdin’s sporadic threats.

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Possible Starting Lineups

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My take on the Match

My main prediction is a solid win for Hajduk Split, most likely by a comfortable margin. The depth, discipline, and form of Hajduk Split outshine Varazdin on nearly every front at this stage of the season. Hajduk’s superiority in midfield control and chance creation means value lies in backing them on the Asian Handicap market. Expect Varazdin to challenge on the counter, but barring a defensive lapse, the away side should deliver and maintain pressure on the league leaders.

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