Arjun Menon
As the new 1. HNL season gains momentum, Varazdin host Gorica at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec in a meeting shaped by sharply contrasting forms. With Varazdin’s steady climb and Gorica looking to regain early-season confidence, this fixture presents intriguing storylines beyond the opening-weekend jitters. Notably, Varazdin’s recent stability at home and Gorica’s shakeup under coach Mario Carevic set an interesting tactical battlefield.
Key figures for this clash include Varazdin’s Ivan Mamut, who brings presence up top with a goal in his last two appearances, and Gorica’s creative fulcrum, who will be pivotal in trying to carve out chances against a defensively organized home side.
The standout “hot stat”: Varazdin have bagged five wins from their last seven matches, a superb 71% win rate—a testament to their formidable run of form heading into this encounter.
| 🏆 Tournament: | 1. HNL 2025/26 – Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Anđelko Herjavec, Varazdin |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.08.2025 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
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Varazdin vs Gorica prediction
Given current momentum, Varazdin look the likelier side to clinch all three points. Their recent 71% win rate, established defensive structure (most used 3-4-3 formation), and high confidence after beating stronger sides like Santa Clara and Sarajevo, shape them as justified favorites. Gorica, meanwhile, are struggling for consistency and failed to keep a clean sheet in recent competitive outings—the 1-3 loss to Triglav highlighted vulnerabilities at the back, despite a typically resilient 4-2-3-1 shape.
Expect Varazdin to play front-foot football, leveraging strong home form and possession-based build-ups, while Gorica will likely sit deeper and look to counter, but they’ve lacked cutting edge up front, scoring just once in their last three matches. Foul and yellow card counts are relatively average for both teams, but keep an eye on Varazdin’s ability to press early—which could tip the match their way if Gorica lose composure in the midfield battleground.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Varazdin Asian Handicap -0.5 |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Varazdin: Nikola Safaric’s men have made a habit of grinding out results in high-stakes matches. Their latest run included a narrow 2-1 victory over Santa Clara, followed by a tough 0-2 reverse in the rematch—a result more about missed early chances than a collapse in structure. A 2-1 win against Zorya and Sarajevo underpins their resilience, highlighted by Ivan Mamut’s three-match streak with a direct goal contribution. The home outfit is disciplined, with just one defeat in their last seven matches and a tendency to pull through tight contests.
Gorica: Gorica’s recent form has been erratic. Under Mario Carevic, they have experimented tactically but suffered a 1-3 setback against Triglav and struggled for consistent offensive output—netting only once in their last three games. Their 2-2 draw with Siroki Brijeg showed flashes of attacking intent but defensive lapses proved costly. Their away record and mixed pre-season offer little indication of sustained improvement, as they failed to capitalize on attacking chances and have leaked goals in transition.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Varazdin | Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
| Total shots | 19 | 11 |
| Free kicks | 27 | 22 |
| Corner kicks | 5 | 4 |
| Total fouls | 21 | 18 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 79 | 74 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 8 |
| Offsides | 4 | 5 |
🚨Read our full Varazdin vs Gorica stats for more analysis.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Varazdin the favourite
- Moneyline Varazdin 1.72 | Gorica 4.90
- Draw 3.55
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.18 | Under 2.5 1.68
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.02 | No 1.75
Bookmaker predictions reinforce Varazdin’s advantage, pricing the hosts at a shade under 1.75 for a home win and Gorica drifting just under 5.00—indicative of faith in Varazdin’s recent success and Gorica’s ongoing adjustment. With under 2.5 goals favored and “both teams to score: no” at shorter odds, the market expects a controlled, possibly one-sided encounter.
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Possible Starting Lineups
Varazdin possible starting eleven
- GK: Oliver Zelenika
- DF: Lamine Ba, Vane Jovanov, Mateo Barać
- MF: Leon Belcar, Tomislav Duvnjak, Mario Marina, Petar Bočkaj
- FW: Ivan Mamut, Marko Dabro, Matej Vuk
Varazdin’s starting eleven is shaped by continuity and discipline, especially in defense where Ba, Jovanov, and Barać anchor a reliable back line. Zelenika’s command in goal underpins confidence, while Mamut’s work rate up front (and his recent scoring form) is pivotal. Expect the side to continue with a 3-4-3 that provides attacking width while maintaining defensive solidity. Watch for Marko Dabro to be a deciding factor with his late runs.
Gorica are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1, a formation aimed at shoring up midfield but providing flexibility if they seek a late equalizer. Uncertainty in their back line’s regularity suggests possible rotation, but expect an experienced core. Their attacking output is under scrutiny—any spark will likely come from their advanced midfield trio.
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Gorica. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
The Verdict
All factors point towards a Varazdin win. Their recent momentum, home advantage, and defined tactical identity should carry them through against a Gorica side still striving for balance. Unless Gorica find unlikely attacking fluency, expect a controlled Varazdin victory, potentially with a clean sheet—my pick is Varazdin to win 2-0, building further belief as they aim for a top-half finish this year.
