Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Copa Del Rey Match - 04.02.2026

The iconic Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia sets the stage for a captivating Copa Del Rey 2025/26 Quarterfinals clash between the home side, Valencia, and the ever-resilient Athletic Bilbao. On February 4, 2026, at 21:00 CEST, football aficionados will witness two proud Spanish institutions vie for a treasured semifinal berth. A tactical battle is certain, presided over by Carlos Corberán (Valencia) and Ernesto Valverde (Athletic Bilbao), whose contrasting styles and recent form heighten anticipation for what could become a defining night in this season’s cup campaign.

Both teams enter this fixture with much at stake. Valencia, riding a more robust wave of consistency at home, is spearheaded by influential midfielder José Luis García Vayá, who has proven instrumental in both the buildup and defensive phases. For the visitors, the dynamic forward Gorka Guruzeta, with two goals in his last four matches, remains a potent threat on counters. With the weight of history echoing around Mestalla and the semi-final beckoning, expect an encounter brimming with emotion, intellect, and intensity.

Hot stat: Athletic Bilbao have amassed 26 corners in their last five matches — their superiority at forcing set pieces may have a significant influence on the game’s tempo in Valencia.

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Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao predictions

Me best bet: Both Teams To Score (BTTS – Yes). Both sides have shown a proclivity for incisive attacks, but defensive vulnerabilities, especially from quick turnovers and set pieces, have emerged in their recent outings. Valencia have netted eight goals in their last five matches, while Athletic Bilbao have scored nine, a testament to their creative units finding opportunities even amid tactical adversity. Given the relatively high recent xG of both teams and the stakes, it is reasonable to anticipate at least a goal apiece.

From a disciplinary standpoint, both teams play with intensity: Valencia have collected 11 yellows and 1 red in their last five, while Athletic have been slightly more aggressive with 14 yellows and 2 reds. Athletic’s pressing results in more corners forced (26 to Valencia’s 19, last five), but also more fouls (74 to 67) — an indicator of their eagerness to disrupt play and recover possession. Valencia, meanwhile, have focused on greater possession control (higher pass accuracy of 77 percent vs Bilbao’s 74 percent). Expect both teams’ aggressive pressing and fast transitions to shape the rhythm and, crucially, provide ample scoring chances.

Prop picks by me:

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Most recent H2Hs

Previous encounters have trended tight, tactical, and intense, with the last win favoring Valencia 2-0 at home. Athletic, however, have won two of the last three meetings, both by a 1-0 margin, exemplifying their capacity to grind out results. Ball progression and shot creation have largely been balanced, but Athletic’s ability to force more corners may yield further advantage, especially if the match lingers in a stalemate phase.

🚨Read our full Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Valencia have won 3 of their last 6 matches, boasting a 50 percent winrate in 2026.
• Athletic Bilbao’s winrate in their last 8 matches is just 25 percent, signaling inconsistency.
• Athletic have forced 26 corners in their last 5 matches, among the highest in the Copa Del Rey quarterfinals.
• Both teams have scored in 4 of Valencia’s last 6, and 5 of Bilbao’s last 8 matches across competitions.
• Average possession: Valencia 53 percent, Athletic Bilbao 50 percent (last 5 matches).
• Discipline: Both teams average 2+ yellow cards per match.

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao score prediction: 2-1

Prediction: Valencia 2-1 Athletic Bilbao. Expect José Luis García Vayá to anchor Valencia’s transitions and make late box entries, while Gorka Guruzeta and Robert Navarro threaten for Bilbao on the break. Defensive lapses on both sides have been punished lately, but home advantage and slightly superior form tip the scales for Los Che, who are likely to find a late winner through relentless wing play and set-piece prowess.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Valencia the favourite

Valencia’s marginal status as favourites is rooted in their superior home resilience and cup pedigree, reflected by the narrow odds advantage. The market anticipates a tight contest with a lean towards goals, as seen in the near-even odds for BTTS and a moderate price for Over 2.5. With both sides known for fiery clashes and high card counts, expect momentum swings and a live market full of opportunity.

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Over/Under Analysis

• Four of Valencia’s last six matches have featured over 2.5 goals.
• Bilbao have conceded at least two goals in 3 of their last 5 games.
• High offensive output recently (17 combined goals in teams’ last ten matches).
• Both squads average more than 10 shots per match, increasing the probability of breakthrough moments.

Valencia Preview

Valencia enter the quarterfinals buoyed by a satisfactory run: three wins in their last six matches and home form that has seen victories over Getafe and Espanyol. Their most recent outing, a narrow 1-2 loss to Real Betis, showcased both the promise and vulnerability of this emerging side. Despite dominating possession and shots, defensive lapses were costly. Stole Dimitrievski has been a pillar in goal, while José Luis García Vayá orchestrates midfield transitions. There is greater tactical cohesion under Corberán, as evidenced by improved pass accuracy and reduced reliance on route-one football.

Valencia possible starting eleven

Athletic Bilbao Preview

Athletic Bilbao’s road to the quarterfinals has been characterised by inconsistency. With two wins out of their last eight, Valverde’s men have oscillated between inspired attacking displays and defensive hesitation. The 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad highlighted both their ability to threaten top-tier opponents and their occasional lack of ruthlessness in front of goal. Guruzeta and Robert Navarro offer pace and finishing, but structural weaknesses in midfield and a tendency to accumulate cards pose tactical challenges.

Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

Our expert prediction leans towards Valencia advancing to the Copa Del Rey semifinals. Their balanced attack, stable midfield, and home advantage grant them a 44 percent win probability (according to our Tips.GG AI model), while Athletic Bilbao trail with a 38 percent chance and a 18 percent draw probability. Expect an absorbing encounter, with Valencia eking out a narrow, hard-fought win.

How to watch Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao

• When? February 4, 2026 – 21:00 CEST
• Where? Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
• How to watch: Check local listings in Spain, or tune in via official Copa Del Rey broadcasting partners and live streaming services.
• Favorite: Valencia

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