Liam Duckstein
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Universitatea Craiova and KuPs meet for the second time in this UEFA Europa League Third Qualifying Round tie, with the first leg ending 1-1 in Finland. Craiova host this decider at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco with a clear home advantage, but KuPs showed in the first leg that they are far from easy opposition. The aggregate score is level, which means every detail in this return fixture matters.
Stefan Baiaram has been Craiova’s most dangerous attacking presence, contributing 3 goals and an assist across their last six matches. For KuPs, Jaime Moreno is the man to watch, having found the net 3 times and added an assist in the same span, combining well with Joslyn Lutumba Luyeye up front.
Hot stat: Universitatea Craiova produced 94 total shots across their last five matches, nearly 70% more than KuPs’ 56. That volume of attempts points to a significant territorial edge when playing at home.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27 Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, Craiova |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Universitatea Craiova vs KuPs Prediction
With the tie level on aggregate, Craiova carry a meaningful home advantage. Their 3-4-3 shape at Ion Oblemenco allows them to overload wide areas and generate corner kick pressure, something they have done consistently, recording 30 corners in five games. KuPs sit on a draw in their most recent domestic outing against TPS Turku, and their away record this season shows clear defensive fragility when pressed by higher-tempo sides.
We predict Craiova to win this match and progress. The Romanian side’s shot volume, territorial dominance, and the pressure of a home crowd in a knockout context all point toward a home victory. KuPs are capable of nicking a goal, but Craiova’s attacking depth is too much to contain for 90 minutes in this setting.
Craiova commit fewer fouls on average (36 across five games) compared to KuPs (45), suggesting the Finnish side plays with more physical disruption in midfield. KuPs also carry 12 yellow cards in five matches versus Craiova’s 9, which adds a disciplinary risk element. Craiova’s pass accuracy stands higher in raw numbers, reflecting a more controlled buildup style. KuPs tend to disrupt rather than dominate, and that approach may not be enough to hold a motivated Craiova side at home.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Universitatea Craiova to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 1.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Universitatea Craiova enter this second leg off the back of a 0-1 home loss to Arges in the Romanian league, which was a concerning result ahead of such an important European night. Before that, they put four past Petrolul and drew 2-2 with Levski Sofia, but the 1-5 defeat to Dinamo Bucuresti earlier in the sequence raised questions about their defensive concentration. Their form across the last 30 days shows three wins, three draws, and three losses, so consistency remains a problem. To be honest, Craiova’s performances have been uneven, but the European context and home crowd tend to bring out a different level of focus from this squad.
KuPs arrive having drawn 1-1 with TPS Turku in their most recent domestic fixture, a result that extends a run where they have struggled to produce decisive performances. Their 0-2 loss to Sabah Baku earlier in the sequence was a clear warning sign about their ability to handle physical, direct opponents. The 3-1 win over VPS was a positive, and the 1-0 victory against Gnistan showed defensive solidity when the pressure was manageable. Their last 30-day record of three wins, two draws, and three losses mirrors Craiova’s closely, but the away setting here makes their task considerably harder.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Universitatea Craiova | KuPs |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Universitatea Craiova vs KuPs stats page for more info.
KuPs. Source: Official Website
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Universitatea Craiova the Favourite
- Moneyline Universitatea Craiova 1.35 | KuPs 7.00
- Draw 4.00
The odds reflect the bookmakers’ strong confidence in a Craiova win, with 65% probability assigned to the home side. At 1.35, the straight win is short but understandable given the home context and the first-leg draw. KuPs at 7.00 is a long price, and perhaps rightly so, though their ability to score in the first leg shows they cannot be completely dismissed. The draw at 4.00 is fair given how evenly matched the teams were in Finland. We see value in backing Craiova to keep a clean sheet rather than just taking the moneyline at a compressed price.
Possible Starting Lineups
Universitatea Craiova Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Razvan Sava
- DF: Adrian Rus, Nikola Stevanović, Alexandru Cretu
- MF: Nicușor Bancu, Vladimir Screciu, Anzor Mekvabishvili, Samuel Teles
- FW: Stefan Baiaram, Aime Steven Nsimba Labe, Carlos Mora
Filipe Coelho is likely to stick with the 3-4-3 that has been the team’s go-to shape. Razvan Sava gets the nod in goal based on playing time data. Adrian Rus has been key in defense, contributing a goal and two assists from the back line. Stefan Baiaram is the player to watch, with three goals in six appearances making him the focal creative threat alongside the pace of Nsimba Labe on the opposite flank.
KuPs Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Hemmo Riihimaki
- DF: Saku Heiskanen, Arttu Lötjönen, Clinton Antwi, Brahima Magassa
- MF: Tommi Jyry, Valentin Gasc, Taneli Hämäläinen
- FW: Jaime Moreno, Joslyn Lutumba Luyeye, Saku Savolainen
Miika Nuutinen has consistently used a 3-4-3, and the personnel here reflects that approach. Hemmo Riihimaki is the clear first-choice goalkeeper, having made 10 saves across five matches. Jaime Moreno leads the attack with three goals and is the most dangerous player KuPs have going forward. Luyeye offers a physical presence and pace, while Tommi Jyry provides the creative link from midfield. Saku Heiskanen’s three yellow cards in six games is a disciplinary concern in what will be a pressured environment.
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Universitatea Craiova. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Craiova’s shot volume, home setting, and the pressure of a knockout tie all point toward a Romanian win. Their 94 shots in five games dwarfs KuPs’ 56, and when you factor in 30 corners generated, the territorial dominance is clear. KuPs showed in the first leg they can be compact and dangerous on the break, but replicating that over 90 minutes in Craiova, with the crowd pushing the home side, is a different challenge entirely.
We predict Universitatea Craiova to win this match 2-0. Their defensive structure, when focused, has the tools to contain KuPs’ forward line, and the attacking quality of Baiaram and Nsimba Labe should be enough to break through. KuPs’ disciplinary record adds another layer of risk for the visitors, and perhaps a red card or two yellow-card accumulation could change the game’s shape entirely.
