Sofia Quijada
Union La Calera host Everton at Municipal Nicolás Chahuan in a mid-table Chilean Primera Division clash where both clubs are fighting to avoid slipping toward the relegation zone. La Calera sit 13th with 18 points from 15 games, one point and one place below their visitors. The interesting wrinkle here is that La Calera have won four of the last six head-to-head meetings across all competitions, including the reverse fixture earlier this season, making their home record against Everton particularly worth noting.
Francisco José Pozzo has been the standout attacker for Union La Calera, scoring three goals in his last five matches and contributing an assist, making him the focal point of Martín Cicotello’s 4-3-3. For Everton, striker Julián Alfaro has two goals from three recent appearances and pairs well with Alan Medina, who has contributed a goal and an assist in the same stretch, giving Walter Ribonetto genuine threat up front.
Hot stat: Union La Calera have registered 45 total shots across their last five matches compared to just 24 for Everton, nearly double the output, which reflects a significant difference in attacking intent heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Chilean Primera Division 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Municipal Nicolás Chahuan, La Calera |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:00 CEST |
Union La Calera vs Everton Prediction
La Calera’s dominance in recent head-to-head meetings, combined with their superior shot volume and home advantage, points toward a Union La Calera win. Their 4-3-3 generates width and forward pressure, and Everton’s away record this season offers little reason for confidence. Bookmakers price this as near-even, which makes La Calera at roughly 2.50 a reasonable value pick given their H2H edge and home form.
La Calera have accumulated 13 yellow cards across five matches, showing an aggressive defensive style that could disrupt Everton’s build-up. Everton’s passing and interception data is incomplete, but their 4-4-2 structure tends to sit compact, which may limit open space. With La Calera generating 21 corner kicks in their last five games and Everton managing just eight, set-piece situations could be decisive here. We predict La Calera to edge this one without it being a high-scoring affair.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Union La Calera to Win & Under 3.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Union La Calera have picked up three wins, two losses, and three draws across their last eight matches, showing steady if unspectacular form. Their most recent result was a 1-0 victory over Coquimbo, a side sitting fifth in the table with a strong rating, which is arguably La Calera’s best scalp of the recent run. Before that, they fell 1-0 to the same Coquimbo in what appears to be a cup fixture, then drew 1-1 with San Felipe and beat Universidad de Chile 1-0. The win over Universidad de Chile stands out given that club’s ranking. La Calera have kept things tight at the back in recent weeks, with three consecutive 1-goal-or-fewer conceding performances.
Everton have managed two wins, three losses, and two draws across their last seven matches, a run that places them slightly behind La Calera in terms of consistency. Their most recent match was a 1-0 win over Copiapo, a lower-ranked side, which snapped a run that included a 2-2 draw with San Luis Quillota and a 1-2 home defeat to Universidad Católica. Their best result in the window was a 3-0 win over Copiapo earlier in the sequence. The two heavy defeats to Universidad Católica, 1-2 and 1-3, underline Everton’s fragility against quality opposition, though La Calera are not at that level.
🚨Check out our dedicated Union La Calera vs Everton stats page for more info.
Across the six most recent meetings, Union La Calera have won four times, drawn once, and lost once. Their 5-3 aggregate goal advantage in those fixtures reinforces their edge in this matchup. The only Everton win came in the Copa Chile 2025 Group D (0-2), while La Calera responded by winning the return leg of that same group stage. In the 2026 league fixture played earlier this season, La Calera won 1-0 with the bookmakers already expecting them to win at 49%.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Evenly Matched but La Calera Hold the Edge
- Moneyline Union La Calera 2.50 | Everton 2.80
- Draw 3.10
The market prices this as a near-even contest, with La Calera at roughly 2.50 and Everton between 2.70 and 3.00 depending on the bookmaker. Given that La Calera have won four of the last six H2H meetings and hold home advantage, the 2.50 on offer represents real value. The draw at 3.10 is not worth pursuing given La Calera’s strong head-to-head record. Everton’s odds in the 2.70-2.93 range feel slightly generous for a side that has lost three of their last seven and struggled against stronger opponents.
Possible Starting Lineups
Union La Calera Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Nicolás Avellaneda
- DF: Christopher Díaz, Daniel Gutiérrez, Cristián Gutiérrez, Vicente Lavín
- MF: Camilo Moya, Axel Encinas, Joaquín Soto
- FW: Francisco José Pozzo, Martín Hiriart Espinoza, Bayron Oyarzo
Cicotello looks set to deploy a 4-3-3 based on the last five matches. Nicolás Avellaneda starts in goal with eight saves in five games. Christopher Díaz and Daniel Gutiérrez are the most consistent defensive presences, each featuring in all five recent fixtures. Francisco José Pozzo leads the attack with three goals and an assist, making him the most dangerous player on the pitch. Martín Hiriart Espinoza adds creativity with two assists, and Bayron Oyarzo, despite featuring in only four games, has chipped in with two goals from limited minutes.
Everton Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Ignacio González
- DF: Hugo Magallanes, Ramiro González, Vicente Fernández, Nicolás Baeza
- MF: Joaquin Moya, Benjamín Berríos, Amaro Leon
- FW: Julián Alfaro, Alan Medina, Emiliano Ramos
Ribonetto has been using a 4-4-2 shape, but the player minutes suggest a more fluid three-forward arrangement at times. Ignacio González starts in goal despite picking up a yellow card recently. Hugo Magallanes is a notable name at the back, having scored one goal from defense in the last three matches. Up front, Julián Alfaro with two goals and Alan Medina with one goal and one assist are the primary threats. Emiliano Ramos provides support from the forward line with an assist across three appearances.
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Union La Calera. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
The numbers back Union La Calera as the side more likely to take three points. They have won four of the last six meetings with Everton, nearly doubled their visitors in shots over the last five matches, and generated far more corners, all pointing to a team that controls games at home. Everton’s attack has some bite through Alfaro and Medina, but their inconsistency away from home and their losses to stronger sides this season raise doubts.
We predict a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Union La Calera. The under 2.5 goals market aligns with both teams’ recent scoring rates in head-to-head fixtures, four of the last six H2H games ended with two goals or fewer. La Calera’s disciplined defensive shape and Everton’s limited away threat make a tight home win the most logical outcome. Our best bet is Union La Calera to win, and to be honest, their H2H record makes this one of the cleaner selections on the card.
