Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: 24.01.2026 Bundesliga

When Union Berlin welcome Borussia Dortmund to the An der Alten Försterei, the atmosphere will be charged not just with the anticipation of Bundesliga points, but also with the echo of recent meetings that have become increasingly one-sided in Dortmund’s favor. With Union eager to break their home curse against the Schwarzgelben and Dortmund intent on keeping pressure on early league leaders, there’s tactical intrigue baked into this fixture.

Among the key players to watch is Woo-Yeong Jeong, whose attacking flair and recent goal form have often been the spark in Union’s forward play. On the other side, Dortmund’s Nico Schlotterbeck has been a pillar at the back and lately, a threat on set pieces, his ability to transition from defense to attack could tilt the game. Goalkeeping duels between Frederik Rønnow and Gregor Kobel add another level, but it’s these outfield protagonists who will truly shape the game’s narrative.

Hot stat: Dortmund’s recent trip to the Alte Försterei produced a commanding 3-0 win, marking their second consecutive three-goal margin against the Iron Ones, a clear signal that this fixture has shifted dynamic in recent seasons.

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Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

The best value prediction for this match leans towards the visitors. Dortmund’s recent Bundesliga form just a single defeat in 18 games and the pedigree shown in their last away thrashing of Union Berlin suggests Niko Kovac’s side are well-poised to continue their dominance. Tactical factors back this up: Dortmund not only score more freely (nine goals in their last five versus Union’s four), but their ability to exploit Union’s open midfield with swift ball progression has repeatedly paid dividends.

Union Berlin’s style remains combative they’re unafraid to rack up the fouls and yellow cards (averaging nearly eight per five matches and three yellows), making them a tough nut to crack at home. However, their ball retention (pass accuracy around 75 percent) and relatively low shot output signal creative struggles. Dortmund, meanwhile, have shown discipline (higher pass accuracy, fewer reckless fouls) and tempo control through midfielders like Emre Can and Julian Brandt, who dictate the rhythm and are key in transition. Unless Union can stem Dortmund’s waves of fast attacks and avoid lax defending, especially in set-piece situations, their pursuit of a statement win could again end in frustration.

Team Analysis

Union Berlin’s recent run is defined by grit rather than fireworks with three straight draws (1-1 v Stuttgart, 1-1 v FC Augsburg, 2-2 v Mainz) and a solitary recent victory at home over FC Köln. Their midfield, marshaled by Rani Khedira, prioritises defensive solidity, but creative outlet Woo-Yeong Jeong is forced to drop deep to get on the ball. Union’s transition struggles and lingering reliance on tight margins means even home fixtures can turn cagey unless their attackers find early joy.

Borussia Dortmund are carrying momentum, aside from a recent continental hiccup against Tottenham (0-2 loss), they brushed St. Pauli aside in a 3-2 thriller, dominated Werder Bremen 3-0, and drew a wild six-goal affair with Eintracht Frankfurt. Dortmund’s forward line energized by Maximilian Beier and the versatile Brandt has proven hard to predict, but their midfield creativity and ability to carve defenses open is significant. The recent defensive fragility (conceded seven in last four) could give Union hope if they press at pace, but the overall quality leans in BVB’s favor.

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🚨Read our full Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Borussia Dortmund the favourite

• Moneyline Union Berlin 3.60 | Borussia Dortmund 2.06
• Draw 3.45
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.92
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.78 | No 2.01

The bookmakers’ odds clearly tip toward Dortmund, thanks to their superior league position, recent head-to-head success, and attacking output. Union’s resilience makes the draw a risk, but Dortmund’s class reflected by average odds around 2.06 and a 46 percent implied win probability makes them the favored pick. A high-scoring affair is in play, but given Union’s trouble converting chances and Dortmund’s ability to punish in transition, away victory and over 2.5 goals offers strong value.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Union Berlin possible starting eleven

Union are expected to stick to their favored 3-4-2-1 formation with Rønnow’s steady hands behind a back three led by Danilho Doekhi. The wing-backs, particularly Juranović, will be crucial not only for wide coverage but also pushing forward. Expect Jeong a standout recently with two vital goals and Ljubičić to be the focal points of any attacking threat, the latter’s recent scoring should earn him a leading role. Baumgart may want to start Ilić up top due to his creative link-up play.

Borussia Dortmund possible starting eleven

Niko Kovac will likely deploy the 3-4-2-1 that recently brought a well-balanced blend, with Schlotterbeck anchoring the defense and Ryerson offering both defensive grit and adventurous runs from wide. In midfield, Can and Brandt’s partnership is central for tempo and transitions. Up front, Beier’s pace and Adeyemi’s dribbling could stretch Union’s often compact defensive lines, while Guirassy’s presence provides strength and clinical finishing. Expect fluid movement and aggressive pressing from this lineup.

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The Verdict

This contest pits one of the league’s most determined mid-table sides against a Dortmund team hunting for silverware. While Union Berlin’s resilience especially at home should not be underestimated, the attacking firepower and recent away form make Borussia Dortmund the pick. My main tip: Dortmund win, with Beier and Brandt central to a high-paced, transition-heavy game. If Union can frustrate Dortmund with physical play and capitalize on set pieces, an upset isn’t impossible, but recent evidence and squad quality lean firmly toward an away victory.

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