Levi Rothermund
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Union Berlin sit bottom-half of the table with a defense that has leaked 17 goals in five matches, the worst return in the division. Dortmund arrive sitting second, just a point off top spot, carrying genuine title ambitions this season. There’s an odd wrinkle here though: Union actually won their last league fixture 1-0 against Elversberg, a rare clean sheet that broke a run of heavy defeats including that 0-7 humiliation at home to Bayern. Whether that result signals a turning point or a one-off against lesser opposition is the question hanging over this game.
Keep an eye on Serhou Guirassy up top for Dortmund, he’s been a constant outlet even in quieter scoring weeks, and his movement against a three-man Union back line could open things up quickly. For Union, Livan Burcu is the one forward who’s actually found the net recently, and on a day where Union need any kind of edge, his hold-up play matters.
Hot stat: Union Berlin have conceded 17 goals across their opening five Bundesliga matches this season, a defensive record that’s not just the worst in the league, it’s nearly double what most relegation-threatened sides have shipped. Dortmund, by contrast, have racked up 1,764 passes in their last five outings against Union’s 625, a gulf that says plenty about the control gap we expect on Saturday.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2026/27 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | An der Alten Försterei, Berlin |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:30 CEST |
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
We’re leaning Dortmund here, and honestly it’s not close. Union’s defensive numbers this season are alarming, 17 goals against in just five matches, and Dortmund’s attack has enough quality through Guirassy, Beier and the Bellingham-Nmecha midfield pairing to exploit space against a back three that’s been cut open repeatedly. Our pick is Borussia Dortmund to win, with a line toward -1.5 on the handicap given how badly Union have struggled defensively at home this term.
Style-wise, Dortmund’s possession dominance (1,510 accurate passes to Union’s 476 over the last five games) should let them dictate tempo from the first whistle. Union commit fouls at a slightly higher rate per match and have picked up more yellow cards recently, which suggests they might try to disrupt Dortmund’s rhythm physically rather than match them technically. That approach could lead to a stop-start game in midfield, but we doubt it changes the final outcome much.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Borussia Dortmund Asian Handicap -1.5 |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Union Berlin’s recent form reads like a rollercoaster. Across their last five league matches they’ve picked up just one win, one draw and three losses, with the Bayern Munich game standing out as a genuine low point, a 0-7 collapse that exposed every defensive weakness this squad carries. The Elversberg win last time out was built on a tight, disciplined performance rather than attacking fireworks, Union managed it without needing to concede, which hasn’t happened often lately. In our preview of Union Berlin vs Elversberg we leaned toward Elversberg avoiding defeat and both sides scoring, and the 1-0 result went against us completely, Union kept a clean sheet and grabbed all three points instead.
Dortmund’s trajectory looks far steadier. Over their last five fixtures they’ve won four and drawn one, losing none, and that consistency has them sitting second in the table. Their most recent outing against Bodo Glimt ended 0-1, a tight away win built more on game management than attacking flair. In our preview of Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund we called goals at both ends and a total pushing past 2.5, and the 0-1 scoreline went against that read, only one team scored and the match stayed well under that mark.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (avg. per meeting) | 0.5 | 3.25 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Borussia Dortmund the favourite
- Moneyline Union Berlin 5.19 | Borussia Dortmund 1.58
- Draw 4.40
The market makes Dortmund heavy favorites here, and the numbers back that up. A price around 1.58 on Dortmund reflects both their table position and Union’s leaky defense, while odds above 5.00 on Union winning outright look fair given how often they’ve conceded multiple goals this season. We think the draw at 4.40 is the least likely outcome of the three, Dortmund’s class usually finds a way through over 90 minutes against sides this open at the back.
Union Berlin. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Union Berlin possible starting eleven
- GK: Frederik Rønnow
- DF: Leopold Querfeld, Felix Uduokhai, Zeno Van Den Bosch
- MF: Christopher Trimmel, Rani Khedira, András Schäfer, Tom Rothe
- FW: Janik Haberer, Woo-Yeong Jeong, Livan Burcu
Mauro Lustrinelli should stick with the 3-4-2-1 shape that’s defined Union’s last five matches. Rønnow remains the clear choice in goal given his save numbers, and Burcu leads the line as the only forward with a recent goal to his name. Watch Schäfer in the number ten role, he’s been Union’s most involved creative outlet by shot and pass volume lately.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting eleven
- GK: Gregor Kobel
- DF: Ramy Bensebaini, Waldemar Anton, Kouakou Joane Gadou, Daniel Svensson
- MF: Felix Nmecha, Marcel Sabitzer, Jobe Bellingham, Joey Veerman, Konstantinos Karetsas
- FW: Serhou Guirassy
Niko Kovac’s 4-2-3-1 has barely changed across the last three games, and there’s little reason to tinker against a side as vulnerable defensively as Union. Guirassy stays the focal point up front, while Bellingham and Veerman rotate through the attacking midfield band looking to feed him. Nmecha and Sabitzer should anchor things defensively in midfield, freeing the fullbacks to push forward against Union’s narrow back three.
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Borussia Dortmund. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We’re backing Borussia Dortmund to win this one, likely by more than a single goal. Union’s defense has been picked apart by better sides all season, and Dortmund’s attacking trio has the tools to do the same on Saturday. Maybe Union rallies for a half, like they did against Elversberg, but a full 90 minutes of containing this Dortmund midfield feels unlikely. Our lean is Dortmund -1.5 with the total going over 2.5, and we wouldn’t be shocked if this one finishes 0-2 or 1-3 in the visitors’ favor.
