Udinese vs Monza Prediction: 11.05.2025 Serie A 2024/25 Preview

Sunday’s early Serie A fixture at the Dacia Arena brings together Udinese and Monza, two sides on contrasting season trajectories but with each desperate for points for different reasons. Udinese sit 12th, not fully safe, facing a Monza side that has struggled all season and are mired deep at the foot of the table. While the bookmakers’ odds paint a clear picture, what’s fascinating here is the psychological edge: Udinese have shown flashes of resilience at home, whereas Monza, despite their struggles, can sometimes thrive as written-off underdogs. There’s more at play than meets the eye.

For Udinese, keep a close eye on dynamic midfielder Oier Zarraga, whose late runs into the box offer a threat that belies his modest goal count — his positional intelligence will be crucial. Meanwhile, Monza’s attacking hopes rest on Gianluca Caprari, a creative influence with sharp vision, still eager to salvage pride in a tough campaign.

A hot stat for this clash? Despite their position, Udinese come in having lost just one of their last three league fixtures and recently bagged an important 2-1 win over Cagliari – vital form at a crunch time.

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Udinese vs Monza prediction

The best value bet in this fixture appears to be a straightforward home win for Udinese. The reasons stack up convincingly: Udinese are unbeaten in their last two home games (win and draw), and while their record overall is inconsistent, they still average more shots, enjoy greater accuracy, and have a more balanced squad than Monza. Monza, meanwhile, are in the gritty grasp of a daunting losing streak — five defeats on the bounce, no goals scored in that run, and the lowest winrate in the division at only 6 percent this calendar year.

Expect Udinese to press their advantage early, with a high midfield work-rate and superior ball circulation (pass accuracy 82 percent in recent matches reflects stability). Monza’s discipline could be a concern — 11 yellows in their past five outings, and an average of 10.4 fouls per game, suggest frustration seeps into their approach. If Udinese’s attacking wingbacks get time, Monza’s patchy backline will struggle.

However, one note of caution: neither attack is particularly prolific and corner tally has been modest, hinting this could settle as a low-scoring contest unless early nerves crack open defences. Yet, the home side’s organisation and recent positive result should carry them to three points.

Team Analysis

Udinese’s recent games: Since a hefty 0-4 defeat to Milan, Udinese have steadied the ship, picking up a critical 2-1 win against Cagliari after a cagey 0-0 draw with high-flyers Bologna. Their ability to dig in for points under pressure was on full display last out, coming from behind with determination and patience against Cagliari. The back three’s composure, combined with flexible midfield support (notably from Lovrić and Karlström), allowed them to edge possession and deliver when it mattered. Zarraga’s cool finish and Kristensen’s precise set-piece header stood out, and it’s that resilience which sets Udinese apart in this relegation-skirting run-in.

Monza’s recent games: For Monza, the last five matches were a microcosm of their season’s woes. They come into this one on the back of a chastening 0-4 defeat to Atalanta and have failed to score in each of their last five outings. In fact, their most recent win seems a distant memory. Defensive lapses, lack of bite in midfield, and the growing pressure of their position has seen them racking up yellow cards and fouls with alarming regularity. Gianluca Caprari remains their creative heartbeat, but even he has struggled to break through, starved of both service and confidence. Their average possession and pass accuracy are respectable, but the lack of cutting edge up front is the story.

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🚨Read our full Udinese vs Monza stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Udinese the favourite

Odds firmly back Udinese as outright favourites. The short price on the home win (1.49) reflects both their superior squad depth and Monza’s ongoing collapse. The bookies see little hope for Monza, and with their offensive troubles, the BTTS “No” option also offers value. Under 2.5 goals is the standout on the goal lines — neither team has lit up the scoreboard recently, and the stats back up a tight, tentative affair.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Udinese possible starting eleven

• GK: Maduka Okoye
• DF: Jaka Bijol, Christian Kabasele, Oumar Solet
• MF: Kingsley Ehizibue, Hassane Kamara, Jesper Karlström, Sandi Lovrić, Arthur Atta
• FW: Oier Zarraga, Keinan Davis

Udinese are likely to deploy their 3-5-2, banking on the trio of Bijol, Kabasele, and Solet to hold the line. Okoye has impressed for reliability in goal. In midfield, Lovrić and Karlström add tactical discipline, while Kamara and Ehizibue provide width and overlapping runs. Up front, Davis will aim to use his physicality, with Zarraga’s movement offering subtlety and late runs. Expect compactness in defence and swift transitions — Zarraga and Davis are the ones to watch for goal involvement.

Monza possible starting eleven

• GK: Stefano Turati
• DF: Luca Caldirola, Samuele Birindelli, Pedro Pereira
• MF: Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro, Alessandro Bianco, Giorgos Kyriakopoulos, Stefan Lekovic
• FW: Dany Mota, Gianluca Caprari, Omari Forson

Monza tend to favour a 3-4-2-1. Turati returns between the sticks, shielded by Caldirola and Pereira, with Birindelli perhaps trusted for runs on the right. Midfield workload will fall on Akpa Akpro and Bianco. Up front, Mota leads the line, supported by the movement of Caprari and Forson. Given their current form, they may drop deep and look to counter, relying on Caprari’s guile and Mota’s pressing – but discipline at the back is critical with so many recent bookings.

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My take on the Match

Our main pick here is a comfortable if unspectacular Udinese win – potentially by more than one goal if early pressure tells. Monza have simply shown too many vulnerabilities, both in defence and discipline, while Udinese have proven capable of raising their game under pressure at home. The difference in hunger, recent form, and tactical flexibility is stark, and as the season climaxes, it’s Udinese who look set to take decisive steps towards safety. Still, as every football supporter knows, drama can unfold at any moment – but barring a turnaround of epic proportions, Monza look resigned to their fate.

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