Sofia Quijada
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Twente sit third in the League Phase table with a perfect two-from-two record, while Pafos occupy 27th spot having drawn their only point from a tricky group. The gap in form is wide: Twente have won four of their last five matches in all competitions, Pafos have won just one of their last six. The sharpest detail from the data set is the scoring gulf, Twente have netted 17 goals across their last five outings against two for Pafos, a split that tells you most of what you need to know before kickoff.
Watch Wout Weghorst, who has scored five goals in his last five appearances for Twente and leads the line with real physical presence. On the Pafos side, Gabriel Teixeira Aragao carries almost the entire attacking burden, scoring both of the team’s goals across their last five games.
Hot stat: Twente have scored at least two goals in every one of their last five matches, including a 9-0 demolition of Excelsior, while Pafos have strung together four consecutive draws and managed only two goals combined over their last five fixtures.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | De Grolsch Veste, Enschede |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 22:00 CEST |
Twente vs Pafos prediction
We predict a comfortable Twente win, and backing them at 1.30 on the moneyline offers little return given the gap in quality. The smarter route is the Twente -1.5 Asian handicap or a win-to-nil bet, both of which pay closer to true value while still reflecting the one-sided nature of this fixture. Pafos have scored only twice in five matches and have not won away from home in their recent run, so expecting them to trouble a Twente side averaging over three goals a game at home feels optimistic.
Twente’s style backs up the numbers, they complete far more passes per game than Pafos (roughly 650 against 164) and commit just one yellow card per match on average, a sign of controlled, disciplined football rather than chasing the game. Pafos foul less too (around four fouls a game) but that largely reflects a side without the ball rather than one dictating tempo. Corners also favor Twente heavily, averaging over six per game to Pafos’ 2.4, which should feed into a lively set-piece battle in Twente’s favor.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Twente to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Twente’s last five results read 1-0 over Thun, a 1-2 loss at Utrecht, a 4-1 win at Lincoln Red Imps, a 2-0 win over AZ Alkmaar, and a 9-0 rout of Excelsior in their most recent outing. The Utrecht defeat is the only blemish in that stretch, and the response since has been emphatic, with 15 goals scored across the following three games. In our preview of Lincoln Red Imps vs Twente we called a comfortable win with at least a two-goal margin, and the 4-1 result delivered it comfortably.
Pafos have gone four straight matches without a win, drawing 0-0 with APOEL, 1-1 with Riga FC, 0-0 with Nea Salamis, and most recently 2-2 with Apollon Limassol, with a 1-3 loss to Atalanta sitting just before that run. The pattern is clear, Pafos struggle to find the net and have leaked goals against stronger sides. In our preview of Pafos vs Riga FC we called a tight, low-scoring game and leaned toward Riga’s double chance for value, and the eventual 1-1 draw delivered exactly that outcome.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Twente and Pafos have no recent competitive meetings on record, this fixture marks their first encounter in our data set.
🚨Check out our dedicated Twente vs Pafos stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Twente the favourite
- Moneyline Twente 1.34 | Pafos 7.85
- Draw 5.39
The market leaves almost no room for an upset, with Twente priced below 1.35 across the board and Pafos drifting past 7.50 with most bookmakers. That gap mirrors the underlying form and goal data closely, Twente’s recent scoring explosion combined with Pafos’ four-game drought without a win justifies the short price, even if it offers little in straight returns.
Possible Starting Lineups
Twente possible starting eleven
- GK: Joel Drommel
- DF: Bart van Rooij, Robin Propper, Aske Emil Berg Adelgaard, Ruud Nijstad
- MF: Ramiz Zerrouki, Kristian Nokkvi Hlynsson, Thomas Van den Belt, Daouda Weidmann, Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter
- FW: Wout Weghorst
John van den Brom keeps faith with the 4-2-3-1 that has delivered 17 goals in five games. Zerrouki and Hlynsson shield the back four, while Van den Belt, Weidmann and Orjasaeter rotate behind Weghorst, who leads the line and the scoring charts. Orjasaeter’s five assists in five games make him a player to watch for chance creation.
Pafos possible starting eleven
- GK: Radosław Majecki
- DF: Nicholas Ioannou, Samy Mmaee, David Luiz, Felipe Bruno
- MF: Vlad Dragomir, Ivan Šunjić, João Correia, Domingos Quina
- FW: Anderson Silva, Gabriel Teixeira Aragao
Ricardo Sá Pinto also lines up in a 4-2-3-1, with Dragomir and Šunjić protecting a back four that has already shipped goals against stronger continental opposition. Gabriel Teixeira Aragao remains the main attacking outlet, and Pafos will need him sharp given how little support he has received in front of goal recently.
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Pafos. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Twente to win comfortably, perhaps by a 3-0 scoreline, built on their current scoring run and Pafos’ inability to find consistent net presence over their last five outings. The handicap and win-to-nil markets look the sharpest way to back the hosts, while the low goal threat from Pafos makes BTTS No our preferred secondary angle. To be honest, Pafos’ away form gives little reason for optimism here, and this looks like a routine three points for Twente at De Grolsch Veste.
