Tunisia vs Netherlands Prediction: 26 June 2026 World Cup 2026

Group F concludes with Tunisia facing Netherlands at Kansas City Stadium, and the stakes could not be more different for these two sides. Netherlands arrive with four points and a clear path to the knockout stage, while Tunisia sit bottom with zero points, having conceded nine goals across two games. Ronald Koeman’s side already look locked into second place at minimum, but a win here could push them into first depending on the Japan vs Sweden result. Tunisia, under Hervé Renard, are mathematically eliminated from Round of 16 contention and play this match with nothing left to lose.

The player to watch for Netherlands is Cody Gakpo, who has been in outstanding form with four goals in four matches this tournament. For Tunisia, Hannibal Mejbri has been the most active creative presence, registering one assist and generating the most free kicks of any Tunisian outfield player, though his output has been limited by the team’s structural struggles.

Hot stat: Tunisia have conceded nine goals in just two World Cup matches, while managing only one goal of their own. Their total shots across the last five matches stands at 15, compared to Netherlands’ 52 over the same period.

Tunisia vs Netherlands Prediction

Netherlands are the clear favourites here, and the numbers back that up at every level. They have outscored opponents 9-3 in their two group games, generated 52 shots in their last five matches, and have Gakpo firing on all cylinders. Tunisia, to be honest, have looked completely outclassed in this tournament and offered almost nothing going forward against Japan and Sweden.

We predict a comfortable Netherlands win with goals coming early. The handicap market is worth considering, but the cleaner play is a straightforward Netherlands win combined with over 2.5 goals. Tunisia’s defensive structure has been porous all tournament, and Netherlands have the firepower to expose that again.

Tunisia average just five corner kicks and 32 free kicks across their last five matches, which tells you how rarely they get into threatening positions. Netherlands, on the other hand, average 16 corners and 39 free kicks over the same period. Their dominance in set-piece situations gives them an additional route to goal beyond open play. Tunisia commit more fouls per game relative to their possession share, which creates constant dead-ball opportunities for Koeman’s side.

Netherlands’ pass accuracy stands at 1,798 out of 2,030 attempted passes across five matches, reflecting a team that controls the ball and dictates tempo. Tunisia managed 812 accurate passes from 1,029 attempts, and that gap in quality shows in how these teams defend and attack. Expect Netherlands to dominate possession, press high, and create multiple clear chances.

Team Analysis

Tunisia have lost all four of their matches in the last 30 days, and their World Cup campaign has been a disaster by any measure. They lost 1-5 to Sweden and 0-4 to Japan, with the Japan defeat being particularly damaging. Their only goal in this tournament came against Sweden, and even that came in a game they lost heavily. The 0-5 defeat to Belgium in their most recent warm-up match before the tournament offered a warning sign that went unheeded. Tunisia’s form line reads as a string of defeats, and there is no evidence in their recent performances to suggest a turnaround is coming.

Netherlands have been inconsistent but effective. They drew 2-2 with Japan in a competitive match before routing Sweden 5-1, which is the kind of result that signals a team finding its stride. Their 0-1 loss to Algeria before the tournament was a blip, and the 2-1 win over Uzbekistan showed they can grind out results too. Gakpo and Crysencio Summerville have combined for six goals and two assists between them in this tournament, and Brian Brobbey adds another dimension from the bench. Netherlands’ form line shows nine wins in their last fifteen games, which reflects a team capable of winning when it matters.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨 Check out our dedicated Tunisia vs Netherlands stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Netherlands the Favourite

• Moneyline Tunisia 6.25 | Netherlands 1.50
• Draw 4.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.45 | Under 2.5 2.60
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.80 | No 1.40

The bookmakers have Netherlands as overwhelming favourites, and the 65% win probability assigned to them feels accurate, perhaps even conservative given Tunisia’s form. The odds on a Netherlands win at around 1.47-1.50 reflect the reality of this matchup. Tunisia at 6.25 represents a long shot that their recent performances simply do not support. The draw at 4.20 is unlikely given how open Tunisia have been defensively. Over 2.5 goals looks like the most straightforward secondary market here, and BTTS No aligns with our view that Tunisia will struggle to score against a Dutch backline anchored by Virgil van Dijk.

Possible Starting Lineups

Tunisia Possible Starting Eleven

Renard is likely to stick with his 4-3-3 shape, though results have given him little reason for confidence in the current setup. Omar Rekik is the only outfield player to register a goal this tournament, which tells its own story about Tunisia’s attacking output. Hannibal Mejbri remains the most technically capable player in the squad and will look to create from deep. Aymen Dahmen has been the first-choice goalkeeper and will likely retain his place. Tunisia need a different approach but have shown no signs of finding one.

Netherlands Possible Starting Eleven

Koeman has settled into a 3-4-3 shape, which gives Netherlands width and attacking depth. Cody Gakpo is the standout name, and with four goals already, he will be eager to add to that tally. Ryan Gravenberch has been excellent in midfield with two assists and strong interception numbers, making him the engine of this team. Frenkie de Jong’s passing accuracy of 237 out of 248 attempts across five matches shows he controls the tempo consistently. Verbruggen keeps his place in goal. Koeman may rotate some players given the qualification is already secure, but the core should remain intact.

🏅Tips.GG Premium Subscription Brings You Even Closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

TipsGG Match Prediction

The data points in one direction. Tunisia have conceded nine goals in two matches, registered just 15 total shots across their last five games, and carry a winrate of 0% in the past 30 days. Netherlands have 52 shots over the same five-match span, 16 corners per average, and a forward line in form. We predict Netherlands to win this match comfortably, likely by a margin of three or more goals.

The best value play is Netherlands Win combined with Over 2.5 goals. BTTS No is also worth including given Tunisia’s inability to convert the few chances they create. The corner market, with Netherlands averaging 16 corners in recent matches against Tunisia’s five, supports an Over 9.5 corners bet as well. This is one of the clearest matchups of the group stage, and the numbers leave very little room for doubt.

Read also: Tunisia vs Netherlands Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated June 2026)
Read also: Tunisia vs Netherlands: Predicted Lineups for the World Cup Clash
Read also: Tunisia v Netherlands Betting Odds
Read also: Tunisia 2026 World Cup Preview: Squad, Odds, Prediction & Best Bets
Read also: Netherlands 2026 World Cup Preview: Squad, Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

More Useful Links for Football Fans

• Gamble Responsibly
• Best Football Betting Websites
• How to Bet On Sports
• Sports Betting Glossary
• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current Football Tournaments
• Football Betting Guide by Tips.GG