Alex MacQuoid
Tromso host Hradec Kralove at Alfheim on 23 July in the second qualifying round of the UEFA Europa League 2026/27. Norwegian sides entering European competition at this stage often carry momentum from a domestic season still in full swing, and Tromso are no exception — they have won all three of their last 30 days fixtures, scoring freely each time. Hradec Kralove arrive from the Czech top flight with a mixed recent run, two draws and one win in that same window, and their last outing ended 3-3 against FC Kharkiv, which is the kind of defensive display that will concern coach David Horejs ahead of a trip to northern Norway.
Midfielder Heine Asen Larsen is the player to watch for Tromso. Three goals and one assist in just two recent matches is a remarkable output for a central player, and his shooting volume — seven shots in those two appearances — suggests he is operating with real confidence. For Hradec Kralove, without detailed individual stats available, the collective shape will matter more than any single name, though their 5-3-2 system mirrors Tromso’s own preferred structure, which could make the tactical battle in central midfield the defining contest of the night.
Hot stat: Tromso scored eight goals across their last two recorded league matches — a 4-1 win over HamKam and a 4-0 dismantling of Valerenga. That is a level of attacking output that any European opponent needs to respect from the first whistle.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27 — Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Alfheim, Tromso |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Tromso vs Hradec Kralove Prediction
Tromso are the clear favourites here and the stats back that up. They have won 14 of 23 matches this year, their last three results have all been victories, and they are playing at home where the crowd at Alfheim can make life uncomfortable for visiting sides not used to the atmosphere. Hradec Kralove, by comparison, have a 58% win rate across 24 matches this year but their recent form is patchier — two draws in their last three, and conceding three goals at home to FC Kharkiv just days before this tie is not ideal preparation.
We think a Tromso win is the most logical outcome. Both sides line up in a 5-3-2 shape, so the game may be tighter than the odds suggest in the first half, but Tromso’s attacking quality — particularly through Larsen and Jens Hjerto Dahl, who also has two goals in two recent appearances — should eventually tell. Hradec Kralove will look to stay compact and hit on the counter, and they showed against Slavia Prague earlier in the year that they can produce results against strong opposition. Still, this is a different context: away from home, in a European qualifier, against a side in red-hot domestic form.
Tromso commit fouls regularly — 23 across their last five tracked matches — and Hradec Kralove may look to exploit set-piece situations if they can get into the game. Tromso’s pass accuracy sits at a solid level and they circulate the ball well, which should allow them to control large portions of possession and limit Hradec Kralove’s opportunities to build rhythm. The corner count for Tromso (nine in their last five) also suggests they generate sustained pressure from wide areas.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Tromso to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Tromso have been in remarkable scoring form. The 4-1 win over HamKam was their second consecutive four-goal performance, following the 4-0 result against Valerenga the week before. Before those two fixtures, they beat Orgryte 4-1 as well, meaning three straight four-goal wins in league play. The only real blemish in recent memory is a 0-5 loss to Bodo Glimt, but Bodo Glimt are one of Norway’s elite European-level clubs and that result can be set aside as a context-specific outlier. Coach Jørgen Vik has his team playing with genuine attacking intent, and the 5-3-2 system is clearly functioning as a platform for midfielders to contribute goals, not just Tromso’s forwards. Dahl’s two goals and Larsen’s three in just two matches each highlight how the whole unit is contributing in the final third.
Hradec Kralove’s recent picture is more complicated. A 3-0 win over Nordsjaelland in a pre-season friendly context showed they can be clinical, but the 3-3 draw with FC Kharkiv — a side ranked considerably lower — raised questions about their defensive concentration. The 1-1 draw with Wolfsberger before that continued a pattern of dropped points in matches they would have expected to control. Their best recent result was a 3-1 win over Slavia Prague, which is a genuinely impressive scalp and proves they have the quality to hurt better opponents. David Horejs will lean on that result for confidence, but the away trip to Norway adds a different kind of pressure altogether.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have not met before in competitive football, so there is no historical head-to-head data to draw on. The bookmakers’ current expectations — 62% probability for Tromso, 20% for the draw, 18% for Hradec Kralove — reflect the home advantage and recent domestic form rather than any established head-to-head pattern.
🚨Check out our dedicated Tromso vs Hradec Kralove stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Tromso the Favourite
- Moneyline Tromso 1.49 | Hradec Kralove 5.75
- Draw 4.50
The moneyline odds around 1.49 for Tromso feel about right given the home context and their current scoring run. The draw at 4.50 is not particularly generous but makes some sense — Hradec Kralove’s 5-3-2 is designed to frustrate, and they have drawn several matches recently. Honestly, the away win at 5.75 looks like a long shot given what we know about Tromso’s form at home, but Hradec Kralove’s win over Slavia Prague earlier this year is a reminder that they should never be written off entirely.
Possible Starting Lineups
Tromso Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jakob Haugaard
- DF: Vetle Skjaervik, Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal, Isak Vadebu, Leo Cornic, Mathias Tønnessen
- MF: David Edvardsson, Ruben Jenssen, Jens Hjerto Dahl
- FW: Heine Asen Larsen, Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Tromso’s 5-3-2 has been consistent across their last five matches and there is little reason for Vik to deviate for a home European qualifier. Jakob Haugaard starts in goal with four saves across two recent appearances — not heavily tested, which says something about how well the defensive structure has functioned. The back five picks itself from the regular starters, with Skjaervik and Guddal providing width and defensive cover, while Leo Cornic’s two interceptions and two offsides caught suggest he is engaged and alert. In midfield, Dahl is the key creative threat — two goals in two matches and seven shots — alongside the experienced Jenssen and the industrious Edvardsson. Up front, Larsen’s three recent goals make him the most dangerous player on the pitch, and Nyhammer adds another goal threat with one goal and one assist in his last two appearances. This is a settled, confident group.
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Tromso. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Tromso are in the best form of any side in this qualifying round picture. Twelve goals across three consecutive league wins, a settled 5-3-2 system, and the home advantage at Alfheim all point in one direction. Hradec Kralove have enough quality to make this uncomfortable — their win over Slavia Prague proved that — but their recent defensive lapses, particularly the 3-3 draw with Kharkiv, suggest they can be punished by a side with Tromso’s current attacking confidence.
We think Tromso win this one, probably 2-1 or 3-1. Hradec Kralove will score — their attacking output in recent matches has been decent and they will not sit back entirely — but Larsen, Dahl, and the rest of Tromso’s midfield-forward unit carry too much momentum to be shut out at home. Our best bet is Tromso to win and both teams to score, which reflects the open nature of a European qualifier where both sides need goals across the two legs.
- Main Tip: Tromso Win + Both Teams To Score
- Value Tip: Tromso to score in both halves
- Goals: Over 2.5
