Trabzonspor vs Kasimpasa Prediction: 23.01.2026 Süper Lig Preview

The Süper Lig regular season intensifies as third-placed Trabzonspor welcome Kasimpasa to the Medical Park Arena on January 23rd. With Trabzonspor currently trailing league leaders Galatasaray and Fenerbahce, every point is crucial in the title push. For Kasimpasa, lingering near the relegation spots, this fixture carries a different kind of urgency—one of survival. What makes this clash especially intriguing is both teams lining up with similar 4-2-3-1 formations, hinting toward a tactical chess match where minutes of invention could make all the difference.

Ernest Muci, Trabzonspor’s midfield dynamo, has emerged as a player to watch, especially after netting three goals in his last three appearances and orchestrating much of Trabzonspor’s attacking dynamism. On the other flank, Kasimpasa’s defensive resilience has largely depended on Nicholas Opoku; his presence and anticipation have underpinned their ability to grind out draws against tougher opposition.

Statistically, the “Hot stat” tilts in Trabzonspor’s favor: they have bagged 9 goals in their last five matches, highlighting a clear attacking edge compared to Kasimpasa’s goal drought over the same period.

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Trabzonspor vs Kasimpasa prediction

Given both recent form and season-long data, Trabzonspor enter this match as clear favorites, a conclusion supported by bookmakers with odds hovering around the 1.50 mark. The home side’s robust attack, orchestrated through the likes of Ernest Muci and Felipe Augusto, contrasts sharply with Kasimpasa’s current struggles in front of goal—0 scored, 10 conceded in the last five fixtures. Despite Kasimpasa’s resistance in defense (just 3 yellow cards and fewer fouls than the league average in their last five outings), their inability to turn possession (average 427 passes/game) into high-quality chances is an ominous sign against Trabzonspor’s precise, possession-hungry style (averaging 772 passes, 85% pass accuracy).

Expect a match dictated by Trabzonspor’s technical midfield, moving the ball efficiently and threatening from wide areas. Both sides are disciplined in their approach—each averaging just under 4 yellow cards across five games—but with Trabzonspor committing fewer fouls, they should control the pace and flow of the match.

Team Analysis

Trabzonspor go into this match buoyed by a dramatic 2-1 win over Kocaelispor, with Felipe Augusto and Arseniy Batagov finding the net and the team completing 772 passes at high accuracy. This win followed a 6-1 rout of Istanbulspor AS, underlining an attack in full flow. However, not all has been smooth sailing; a 1-4 defeat to Galatasaray exposed defensive cracks, but these setbacks have generally been met with swift, positive responses—emphasized by a solid backbone in midfield and rapid transitions through the wings.

Kasimpasa, meanwhile, arrive off a goalless draw against Antalyaspor—a fixture emblematic of their recent struggles up front. While they notched victories in friendlies, such as a 2-0 win over Westerlo and Kocaelispor, their league campaign is threatened by insufficient firepower. With 0 goals scored in their last five matches, Emre Belözoğlu faces the pressing challenge of finding solutions, possibly turning to Mamadou Fall or Mortadha Ben Ouanes to infuse some unpredictability and incision.

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🚨Read our full Trabzonspor vs Kasimpasa stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Trabzonspor the favourite

• Moneyline Trabzonspor 1.50 – 1.55 | Kasimpasa 5.50 – 6.12
• Draw 4.30 – 4.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.75 | Under 2.5 2.05
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.25 | No 1.60

Trabzonspor’s heavy favoritism is well justified by every metric: superior league position, significantly higher goal output, greater attacking variety, and home advantage at Medical Park Arena. Kasimpasa’s win probability is dampened by their lack of recent attacking returns and historical difficulties when traveling to Trabzon. Given recent results and head-to-heads usually tight but still favoring the hosts, backing Trabzonspor is a logical and statistically sound play.

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My take on the Match

This fixture is built for Trabzonspor to assert their quality and bounce in front of a home crowd. While Kasimpasa’s defensive resolve occasionally frustrates more potent opposition, their recent impotence in front of goal is a glaring weakness here. Unless Belözoğlu engineers a tactical masterstroke, expect Trabzonspor to dominate possession, carve out chances, and maintain pressure throughout. My pick is a home win with a possible margin of more than one goal—Trabzonspor -1.5 on Asian Handicap presents solid value. If Muci continues his rich vein of form, this could be a statement game for both the player and his club’s title ambition.

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