Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor Prediction: 17.12.2025 Turkish Cup

The Papara Park Stadion in Trabzon sets the stage for this intriguing Group A clash in the Turkish Cup 2025/26 as Trabzonspor take on Alanyaspor. Beyond the expected intensity of cup football, this fixture stands out for its tactical undercurrents—Trabzonspor’s high-octane transitions under Fatih Tekke meeting João Pereira’s Alanyaspor, a side searching for identity but always capable of a surprise. Both teams arrive with contrasting form: Trabzonspor enter unbeaten in five, whilst Alanyaspor have stumbled, winning just once in that same stretch. Recent head-to-head encounters have delivered plenty of drama, so all eyes will be on how each side handles the pressure with progression in the group at stake.

For Trabzonspor, the explosive form of midfielder Ernest Muci—bagging 6 goals in his last 5 matches—demands special attention. His late surges into the box and ability to strike from distance have often tipped matches in his side’s favour. On the opposite end, Alanyaspor will rely heavily on the clinical Steve Mounié, whose physicality and poacher’s instinct (4 goals in his last 5) could cause headaches for any defence when given service.

A hot stat? Trabzonspor have scored 14 goals in their previous five outings, more than double Alanyaspor’s tally. That attacking firepower could well be decisive.

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Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor prediction

The best value lies with a Trabzonspor win. Their undefeated stretch, punchy output in front of goal, and greater balance between attack and defence provide the edge. With Ernest Muci’s relentless running and Paul Onuachu’s presence up front, Trabzonspor offer threats from multiple positions, not to mention their knack for high scoring matches lately. Alanyaspor, for all their resilience, have struggled to create chances and often find themselves outgunned away from home, as reflected by only 7 goals scored in their last 5.

Looking at style of play, Trabzonspor’s aggression comes with a caveat—11 yellow cards and 40 fouls in their recent matches hint at a side not shy to get stuck in. Their superior passing (1636 accurate passes in last 5), decent accuracy (87%) and willingness to press high shape their proactive game, but could leave space for counterattacks. Alanyaspor, meanwhile, are more measured, registering fewer cards (6 yellows), but their discipline in midfield is offset by a lack of clinical finishing. With both teams also amassing high corner counts—Trabzonspor averaging nearly 6, Alanyaspor at just under 8 per game—expect plenty of set piece drama. The match tempo promises to swing from end to end, but Trabzonspor’s recent form is simply too hard to ignore.

Team Analysis

Trabzonspor come off a pulsating 3-3 draw with Besiktas—testament to their attacking flair, but perhaps a reminder of defensive gaps. Muci’s brace was the highlight, as the side pressed hard and played with swagger, only to be pegged back late by Besiktas’ improvements in the second half. Before that, wins over Goztepe (2-1) and Vanspor FK (2-0) showed the team’s ability to grind out results when not at their fluid best. Across these games, the midfield has gelled well, with Okay Yokuşlu and Ozan Tufan providing stability behind the attacking line. Fatih Tekke will be hoping the back four can cut out the lapses that cost vital points last time out.

Alanyaspor have seen progress, but the outcomes haven’t consistently followed. Their latest match, a goalless draw with Kayserispor, was a frustrating affair—plenty of industry but little incision. The side’s best showing in recent games was the 5-0 rout over Corum, where Mounié was simply unplayable. However, too often, attacking play fades on the road, typified by recent scoreless draws and a narrow loss to Kasimpasa. João Pereira’s men will need to rediscover their attacking bite while shoring up the back three, especially against relentless sides like Trabzonspor.

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🚨Read our full Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Trabzonspor the favourite

• Moneyline Trabzonspor 2.06 | Alanyaspor 3.30
• Draw 3.26
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 1.90
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.85 | No 1.90

The bookmakers see Trabzonspor as firm favourites, and rightly so—given their home advantage, recent scoring streak, and more stable team shape. Alanyaspor’s odds reflect their inconsistency, especially when away, and while a draw isn’t out of the question—it would require them to rediscover both defensive and attacking coherence in one go. The odds also suggest an expectation of open play and goals on both sides, considering both defences’ recent records.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Trabzonspor possible starting eleven

Trabzonspor’s likely 4-2-3-1 leverages Onana’s experience between the posts and a defensive unit that, if focused, is well-balanced. Batagov and Saatçı anchor the centre, while Muci, operating as the advanced midfielder, will look to exploit spaces behind Onuachu—a formidable aerial force. The wide players, particularly Mustafa Eskihellaç at left back, are tasked with providing width as well as defensive cover. All eyes, though, will be on Muci’s movement and Onuachu’s finish. The blend of flair and steel makes this line-up a strong proposition.

Alanyaspor possible starting eleven

João Pereira has preferred the 3-4-2-1 in recent matches, and with Taşkıran providing decent shot-stopping abilities, the defensive trio of Aliti, Lima and Hadergjonaj must remain disciplined. In midfield, the partnership of Makouta and Akdag is industrious, but the real hope lies up front, where Mounié’s striker instincts are complemented by Hwang Ui-Jo’s movement and Elia’s darting runs. If Alanyaspor can connect their lines effectively, they may spring a surprise. The physical battle in midfield and Mounié’s ability to convert half-chances could be key.

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My take on the Match

The smart pick here is a Trabzonspor victory, likely by a 2-1 or 3-1 margin—though Alanyaspor are capable of snatching a goal on the break. The overall quality, scoring rhythm, and assertive midfield play of Trabzonspor should tell across ninety minutes, particularly if Muci and Onuachu continue their blistering form. Alanyaspor’s structure gives them a puncher’s chance, but unless their attack suddenly finds a spark, the edge stays with Tekke’s squad.

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