Liam Duckstein
TPS Turku host Jaro at Veritas Stadium in Turku on June 27, in what shapes up as a must-watch mid-table clash in the Veikkausliiga 2026 Regular Season. TPS sit 7th on 16 points, while Jaro are rooted near the bottom in 11th with just 8 points from 13 games. The form of both sides has been poor recently, but Jaro’s record of zero wins in their last four matches makes this a particularly grim stretch for Jens Karlsson’s side.
One player to watch for TPS Turku is Luke Ivanovic, who leads the attacking line with 8 total shots across the last five matches and has registered a goal. For Jaro, Herman Sjögrell stands out with 14 total shots in recent games, the highest of any player in this fixture, and he will be central to whatever Jaro can produce going forward.
Hot stat: Jaro have conceded 17 goals in their last five Veikkausliiga matches, shipping five against Ilves and five against HJK alone. That defensive fragility is impossible to ignore heading into this game.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Veikkausliiga 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Veritas Stadium, Turku |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
TPS Turku vs Jaro prediction
TPS Turku are far from convincing this season with a 30% win rate, but at home against a Jaro side that has not won in their last four matches and has the worst defensive record in recent Veikkausliiga play, the home win is the most logical outcome here. We predict a TPS Turku win, and the value at around 2.10 to 2.22 across most bookmakers is reasonable given the gulf in current form.
TPS have accumulated 9 yellow cards across their last five games and committed 58 fouls, making them a physical side that disrupts play frequently. Jaro, by contrast, have been more composed with 42 fouls and 6 yellow cards, but their high lost-ball count and poor pass accuracy in dangerous areas suggest they struggle to convert pressure into results. TPS’s 58% pass accuracy is lower than Jaro’s 80%, yet TPS’s defensive structure, 31 interceptions to Jaro’s 27, gives them the edge in transitions.
The head-to-head from earlier this season ended 0-0, which does introduce some caution. A low-scoring match is possible. We lean toward a 1-0 or 2-0 TPS win, with under 2.5 goals carrying real value given TPS’s recent scoring struggles, just 2 goals in five matches.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | TPS Turku to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
TPS Turku have had a difficult run in the last 30 days, winning just one of five matches. Their most recent game was a 0-0 draw against Lahti, a side sitting 10th in the table. Before that, they lost 1-2 to KuPs and 0-1 to Ilves. Their single win in this stretch came against VPS, a 1-0 result. The pattern is clear: TPS can grind out results against lower-ranked opposition but struggle against the top half of the table. Ivan Piñol’s side scores very few goals, just two across five matches, and relies heavily on defensive discipline to stay competitive.
Jaro’s recent form is dire. They drew 1-1 with Gnistan in their last match, which was actually their best result in a long time. Before that, they lost 0-5 to Ilves, 2-5 to HJK, and 1-2 to AC Oulu. Their only bright spot in the last five was a 3-0 win over bottom-side Mariehamn. Jens Karlsson’s team has conceded 17 goals in five matches, and their defensive numbers tell the story: they are losing the ball frequently, with Oliver Isak Kass Kawo and Herman Sjögrell both posting very high lost-ball counts. Jaro generate shots, 48 across five games, but the conversion rate is low and the goals against column is alarming.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | TPS Turku | Jaro |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 6 | 2 |
| Total shots | 39 | 48 |
| Free kicks | 50 | 32 |
| Corner kicks | 12 | 18 |
| Total fouls | 58 | 42 |
| Interceptions | 31 | 27 |
| Offsides | 1 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated TPS Turku vs Jaro stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: TPS Turku the favourite
- Moneyline TPS Turku 2.22 | Jaro 3.17
- Draw 3.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The bookmakers price TPS Turku as favourites at around 2.10 to 2.22, which reflects the home advantage and Jaro’s poor recent form. The draw at 3.40 to 3.60 is priced fairly given the 0-0 result in their last meeting. Jaro at 2.93 to 3.17 looks too short for a side that has not won in four matches and has conceded 17 goals in that time. Pinnacle offers the best value for TPS at 2.19, and the draw market at 3.60 with Pinnacle or Betway is worth noting for those who want to hedge. To be honest, the under 2.5 goals line is the most attractive market given both teams’ scoring records, and BTTS No carries solid logic given Jaro’s attacking inconsistency.
Possible Starting Lineups
TPS Turku possible starting eleven
- GK: Elmo Henriksson
- DF: Matej Hradecky, Oscar Häggström, Tobias Karkulowski, Eetu Turkki
- MF: Timo Zaal, Lasse Ikonen, Pau Juvanteny, Tomi Vakiparta
- FW: Luke Ivanovic, Miika Kauppila
TPS Turku are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, their preferred formation in recent weeks. Elmo Henriksson starts in goal after 17 saves across four matches. The back four picks itself based on minutes played, with Hradecky and Häggström as the central pairing. Timo Zaal is the engine in midfield, covering the most passes of any outfield player and anchoring the defensive structure. Luke Ivanovic is the most dangerous attacker in the squad based on shots and fouls drawn, and he deserves attention as the primary threat going forward.
Jaro possible starting eleven
- GK: Senne Vits
- DF: Jesper Svenungsen Skau, Johan Brunell, Aron Bjonback, Erik Gunnarsson
- MF: Oliver Isak Kass Kawo, Fabian Ostigard Ness, Adam Vidjeskog, Herman Sjögrell
- FW: Kaius Hardén, Ville Vuorinen
Jaro are also expected to deploy a 4-2-3-1. Senne Vits keeps goal after 16 saves in four appearances. Jesper Svenungsen Skau leads the back line in passing volume and provides the most composure from deep. Oliver Isak Kass Kawo is arguably Jaro’s most complete midfielder, contributing 2 assists and 7 interceptions, and he will be key to any creative play. Kaius Hardén leads the attack with 10 shots and 2 offsides in recent games, suggesting he is the primary focal point up front. The red card received by Michael Ogungbaro in recent matches may impact defensive selection.
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Jaro. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
TPS Turku are not a free-scoring side, but they are playing at home against a Jaro team in genuine crisis. Jaro have conceded 17 goals in five matches, won nothing in four, and are relying on individual moments rather than collective structure. TPS have 31 interceptions to Jaro’s 27 across the same period and commit more fouls, suggesting they press aggressively and disrupt opposition rhythm effectively.
We predict a TPS Turku win, most likely by a single goal, with under 2.5 goals the standout market. The 0-0 draw in their previous meeting this season adds a note of caution, but the context was different then. Jaro’s current defensive record makes a clean sheet for TPS entirely realistic, and the TPS Turku to win to nil tip at roughly 3.00 to 3.20 across most books offers genuine value. Perhaps the safest single play here is TPS win combined with under 2.5 goals on the same ticket.
