Liam Duckstein
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Toulouse welcome a Troyes side in genuine freefall to the Stadium Municipal this weekend, and the gap in form between these two clubs looks wider than the four places separating them in the table. Troyes arrive having lost four of their last five league matches, scoring just once in that stretch, while Toulouse have found a bit of rhythm despite a mixed run. The interesting wrinkle here is that Toulouse’s own form is shakier than the odds suggest, a 2-3 home defeat to Pau FC sits right in the middle of their last five games, yet they still look miles ahead of a Troyes side with the worst goal difference in the division.
Casper Tengstedt has been the main source of Toulouse’s goals lately, scoring twice and assisting once across his last two outings, and he looks the obvious man to watch up front. For Troyes, Timothee Nkada is one of the rare bright spots, netting in recent weeks despite his side’s broader struggles going forward.
Hot stat: Troyes have managed just one goal from 27 shots across their last five matches, while Toulouse have scored five times from only 21 attempts, a finishing gap that tells its own story heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Ligue 1 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadium Municipal, Toulouse |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:15 CEST |
Toulouse vs Troyes prediction
We predict Toulouse to win this one comfortably, and the value sits in backing them with confidence rather than chasing long odds elsewhere. Toulouse have scored in four of their last five matches and sit mid-table on merit, while Troyes have won one of their last five and travel with the league’s worst goal difference. Perhaps the biggest factor working in Toulouse’s favour is home advantage against a side that has conceded in nearly every outing recently.
Toulouse have committed fewer fouls and picked up fewer cards than Troyes across their last five games (25 fouls and 3 yellows against 27 fouls and 6 yellows for Troyes), hinting at a more disciplined, controlled approach from the home side. Toulouse’s passing numbers also edge out Troyes, with completion rates around 86% compared to roughly 81% for the visitors, a gap that should let them dictate tempo for long spells. Troyes do win more corners on average, which suggests they may create some set piece chances even while struggling from open play.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Casper Tengstedt to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Toulouse go into this match off the back of a 3-0 win over Le Mans, a result that snapped a run of inconsistency and gave Jens Berthel Askou’s side something to build on. That win followed a hard-fought 2-2 draw with Monaco and a surprising 2-3 defeat to Pau FC, showing a team capable of good performances but still prone to lapses. In our preview of Le Mans vs Toulouse we backed Toulouse to edge a tight, goal filled match, and the 3-0 scoreline landed the win we called even though the game turned out far more one sided than expected.
Troyes head into this fixture off a 1-3 home loss to Lens, extending a miserable sequence that includes defeats to Marseille, Angers and Lille either side of a single draw with Dijon. Stéphane Dumont’s side have scored only twice across those five matches, and the pattern of conceding first and chasing games looks set to continue. In our preview of Troyes vs Lens we predicted an away win for Lens, and the 1-3 final score delivered that call even though Troyes did manage to get on the board.
🚨Check out our dedicated Toulouse vs Troyes stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Toulouse the favourite
- Moneyline Toulouse 1.60 | Troyes 5.15
- Draw 4.20
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The market leans heavily toward Toulouse here, with most bookmakers pricing them around 1.60 and giving them roughly a 59% implied chance of victory. That lines up with the form gap between the two sides, and we think the odds are fair rather than overpriced given how poor Troyes have looked defensively. The draw at around 4.20 offers little appeal when one team is clearly struggling this badly on the road.
Possible Starting Lineups
Toulouse possible starting eleven
- GK: Guillaume Restes
- DF: Mark McKenzie, Christ Tape, Seny Koumbassa, Aron Dønnum
- MF: Cristian Casseres, Thomas Jorgensen, Rafik Messali, Niko Sigur, Niklas Schmidt
- FW: Casper Tengstedt
Askou looks set to stick with the 4-2-3-1 shape that has brought recent results, with Tengstedt leading the line after his two goal involvement across the last two matches. Dønnum offers an attacking outlet from the back line given his goal and assist in recent weeks, and Casseres should anchor midfield alongside Jorgensen.
Troyes possible starting eleven
- GK: Patrick Beach
- DF: Adrien Monfray, Junior Diaz, Lucas Maronnier, Paolo Gozzi Iweru
- MF: Antoine Mille, Dermane Karim, Mouhamed Diop, Merwan Ifnaoui, Iron Gomis
- FW: Renaud Ripart
Dumont is likely to keep the same 4-2-3-1 setup that has started every recent match, with Ripart leading the attack despite a goalless run. Karim and Mille have logged heavy minutes in midfield and will need to work hard defensively given how often Troyes have been overrun lately.
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Troyes. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Toulouse to win this one, likely by a two goal margin, with Tengstedt continuing his recent scoring form. Troyes have scored once in their last five matches and conceded freely, and nothing in their recent play suggests that pattern changes here. To be hones, the only real worry for Toulouse is their own inconsistency, but even on an off day they should have enough quality to beat a Troyes side that has forgotten how to score.
