Liam Duckstein
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Toulouse and Strasbourg arrive at the Stadium Municipal on level terms, ten points apiece from nine rounds, and Friday’s winner pulls clear of the congested lower half. Toulouse sit 12th thanks to four draws, Strasbourg 13th with a minus-two goal difference, so one result swings either camp between calm and crisis. The market history here carries a twist: only one of the last four meetings followed the bookmakers’ lead, and Toulouse have won the most recent two.
Form sends mixed signals. The hosts took one win from their last five, though it came as a 3-0 statement against Le Mans, and they fell 0-2 away to Marseille last Sunday. Strasbourg lost four straight before thrashing Auxerre 5-1 at home, the sort of scoreline that resets a dressing room. Watch Casper Tengstedt, two goals and 14 shots in five matches for the hosts, and Gessime Yassine, whose two goals and two assists carried the visitors’ recovery.
The loudest number in this data set belongs to the visitors: 59 shots across their last five matches, 17 more than Toulouse produced in the same window.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Ligue 1 2026/27, Regular Season, France |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadium Municipal, Toulouse |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:45 CEST |
Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction
Our pick is a home win, and the 2.04 average on Toulouse is the best value on the board. Strasbourg have shipped 19 goals in nine league games and conceded in each of their last five. Toulouse’s back line has held firmer, seven goals against in that same span, with Guillaume Restes ever present in goal. Home advantage, a settled defence and Tengstedt’s shot volume tip a tight fixture toward the hosts. We predict a 2-1 Toulouse win, with Strasbourg good for one goal but not for a point.
Style adds texture. Askou’s side moves the ball patiently, 2197 passes over five games against Strasbourg’s 1906, and both teams sit near 86 percent passing accuracy. Out of possession the hosts turn aggressive: 58 fouls and 10 yellow cards in five, comfortably more than the visitors’ 48 and 6. Strasbourg go more direct, 59 attempts and 16 corners in five, so chances should flow at both ends, and the card market leans toward the home side.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Toulouse to win by exactly one goal, as their last two meetings with Strasbourg finished 2-1 and 1-0 |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 goals |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Jens Berthel Askou’s men came up short in Marseille last time out, beaten 0-2 on the road, their third defeat in five. The stretch around it tells the fuller story: a goalless grind against Troyes, the 3-0 win over Le Mans, a 2-2 draw with Monaco and a 2-3 stumble against second-division Pau in early October. One win in five reads poorly. Seven goals conceded across that run paints a calmer picture of a defence that rarely collapses, and four draws in nine league games underline a side that is hard to put away.
In our preview of Marseille vs Toulouse we backed a Marseille win with both teams scoring, and the 0-2 result went against us.
Hugo Oliveira answered a four-match losing streak about as loudly as possible. Strasbourg thrashed Auxerre 5-1 at home last weekend, washing out defeats to Rennes, Paris Saint Germain, Nice and Paris that cost 11 goals. The attack has kept firing all season, 17 league goals in nine games, four more than Toulouse have managed. Seven goals in the last five tell you the front line works; eleven conceded in the same window tell you why they sit 13th. Across the calendar year they have won 16 of 44, a shade better than the hosts’ 12 of 36.
In our preview of Strasbourg vs Auxerre we called goals at both ends with the hosts edging it, and the 5-1 result delivered it.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
The four latest league meetings split two apiece. Toulouse won 1-0 in December 2025 and 2-1 the following May. Strasbourg took both 2024/25 fixtures 2-1, each time against a market that leaned toward Toulouse. Those games produced five goals per side, so blowouts have no precedent in this fixture regardless of what happened to Auxerre last week.
The table below compares each side’s output across their last five matches.
| Statistic | Toulouse | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 7 |
| Total shots | 42 | 59 |
| Free kicks | 53 | 34 |
| Corner kicks | 13 | 16 |
| Total fouls | 58 | 48 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 86.4 | 85.8 |
| Interceptions | 27 | 34 |
| Offsides | 9 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Toulouse vs Strasbourg stats page for more info.
Strasbourg. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Toulouse the favourite
- Moneyline Toulouse 2.04 | Strasbourg 3.32
- Draw 3.77
Those averages imply roughly 46 percent for the hosts, 25 for the draw and 29 for Strasbourg once the bookmaker margin comes out, and that matches our provider’s model almost exactly. Quotes on Toulouse barely move between 1.98 and 2.10 across the market, a sign oddsmakers see a genuine contest. We still take the home side. Strasbourg have lost five of nine and drawn once all season, a profile that rarely travels well to a ground where draws are the home specialty. Perhaps the 3.77 on the draw tempts given Toulouse’s habits, but the win price carries the real edge.
Possible Starting Lineups
Toulouse possible starting eleven
- GK: Guillaume Restes
- DF: Aron Dønnum, Mark McKenzie, Rasmus Nicolaisen, Christ Tape
- MF: Cristian Casseres, Niko Sigur, Thomas Jorgensen, Rafik Messali, Jacen Russell-Rowe
- FW: Casper Tengstedt
Askou’s last five matches all came in a 4-2-3-1. Restes keeps goal after four straight full shifts, and McKenzie with Tape have not missed a minute of that run. Nicolaisen’s 264 minutes in three games make him the obvious partner at the back, and Dønnum offers a goal and an assist from the back four. Casseres and Sigur screen, Jorgensen links play, Messali brings the legs on the flank and Russell-Rowe works off Tengstedt, whose two goals and 14 shots in five games make him the busiest shooter on either roster.
Strasbourg possible starting eleven
- GK: Filip Jørgensen
- DF: Jeyland Mitchell, Abdoul Karim Coulibaly, Joaquín Martínez Gauna, Genesis Antwi
- MF: Dario Essugo, Pape Demba Diop, Giovanni Reyna
- FW: Gessime Yassine, Conrad Harder, Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
Oliveira shapes up in a 4-3-3. Jørgensen has played every minute and made 11 saves behind a defence where Coulibaly and Martínez Gauna also banked all 360 minutes of the last five, with Mitchell and Antwi providing width from full back. Essugo drives the trio with two goals and six interceptions, Diop moves the ball best with 202 passes, and Reyna adds craft plus a goal. Yassine and Harder pick themselves up top, and Amo-Ameyaw edges Martial Godo for the final forward slot on minutes played.
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Toulouse. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a 2-1 Toulouse win, built on home control, the tighter defence and Tengstedt’s finishing against a back line that concedes every week. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score support the main call, because Strasbourg score freely and defend loosely, and Toulouse create enough at home to profit from that. Four draws in nine keep a caveat alive, so conservative punters can shorten the risk with Toulouse double chance, perhaps paired with under 9.5 corners given both sides’ modest corner counts. To be honest, this looks tighter than Strasbourg’s 5-1 suggests, and the home crowd should decide it late.
