Toulouse vs Amiens Prediction: 04.02.2026 Coupe de France

As the Coupe de France 2025/26 Round of 16 delivers another intriguing match-up, Toulouse hosts Amiens at Stadium Municipal. The stakes are high for both sides, particularly with Toulouse showing a resilient run at home and Amiens looking for an upset against the odds. This match stands out thanks to two teams on divergent trajectories—Toulouse’s consistency faces the underdog spirit of Amiens, setting up a classic French cup night.

Key players set to influence proceedings include Toulouse’s dynamic forward Santiago Hidalgo, who has notched three goals across his last four appearances, and Amiens’ versatile midfielder Kylian Kaiboue, whose distribution from deep has been a rare spark in recent performances. Both are expected to play central roles not just in possession, but in dictating their team’s tempo from box to box.

Hot stat: Toulouse recorded a stunning 5-1 win against Nice in their recent run, underlining their attacking prowess at home and raising expectations for an open, entertaining contest.

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Toulouse vs Amiens prediction

Taking into account Toulouse’s recent form (three wins and a draw in five), home advantage, and their clinical display in attack, the hosts emerge as confident favorites. Amiens, by contrast, arrive with only a single win in their last five outings and a win rate of just 20 percent in that span.

Toulouse tend to set up in a 3-4-3, emphasizing width, which comes through in their high number of corner kicks (19 in last five matches) and pressing intensity (60 interceptions). Their average of eight yellow cards in the same period suggests an aggressive edge, though not crossing into red-card territory—a balanced but combative approach suiting knockout football.

Amiens, meanwhile, typically favor a 4-3-3 with less possession-based football but higher collective defensive action (70 total fouls, 46 interceptions in the last five matches). Their attack hasn’t clicked consistently, evidenced by just six goals scored and only one win in their recent run, making Toulouse’s back three likely to go largely untroubled.

Team Analysis

Toulouse:
Toulouse have shown steady improvement across their last five fixtures, including a dominant 5-1 demolition of Nice and a thrilling 7-6 win over Angers. Their only stumble came against high-flying Lens, yet their defensive shape and attacking flexibility have otherwise kept them firmly in control.

Their most recent match—a disciplined 0-0 draw against Auxerre—emphasized patience and defensive compactness, with Toulouse shading possession and preventing Auxerre from generating quality chances. Drilled in set pieces and rapid transitions, Toulouse look efficient at both ends of the pitch.

Amiens:
Amiens’ recent form is cause for concern—one win, one draw, and three defeats in their last five. Their campaign seesawed between a vital 4-2 victory against Montreuil FC and a disappointing 1-2 home defeat to Grenoble last time out, where defensive errors and a lack of penetration up front were costly.

The 0-2 loss against Annecy especially highlighted Amiens’ issues: a toothless attack and lapses when defending set pieces. With 70 fouls committed across five games and only one red card, discipline is a recurring challenge, and their attack seldom stretches opposition defenses.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Toulouse vs Amiens stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Toulouse the favourite

• Moneyline Toulouse 1.26 | Amiens 9.85
• Draw 5.80
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.90
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.65

These odds reflect Toulouse’s pronounced home advantage and recent strong form. With bookies giving Toulouse a 74 percent win probability, the market expects a convincing home performance. The wide gulf in odds, coupled with Amiens’ goal struggles and away record, supports backing Toulouse with an Asian handicap or a straight win.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

Possible Starting Lineups

Toulouse possible starting eleven

Toulouse are expected to retain their preferred 3-4-3, blending youth and experience. Guillaume Restes commands the box well and has delivered consistent performances in goal. Nicolaisen and Cresswell anchor a strong defensive line, while creative thrust comes from Diop and Casseres in midfield. Hidalgo is in red-hot scoring form, and Vignolo’s movement is key to stretching defenses.

Amiens possible starting eleven

Likely to stick with their 4-3-3, Amiens’ squad is structured for compactness and counterattacks. Kaiboue is vital in midfield battles, while the backline led by Bakayoko needs to stay organized against Toulouse’s press. Up front, Leautey and Ikia Dimi must find ways through on rare transitions if Amiens are to have a chance. With recent struggles, the inclusion of energetic players like Rafii provides hope for an attacking spark.

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My take on the Match

My main pick for this match is a Toulouse win with a -1.5 Asian Handicap. Based on current form, superior squad depth, and home support, Toulouse possess the tools to control both territory and tempo. Amiens will need a near-perfect defensive display and sharp counterattacks to stay in the contest, but the gulf in quality and recent stats is difficult to ignore. Expect Toulouse’s attacking line to make the difference in a high-scoring encounter, reclaiming their status as one of the Coupe’s most dangerous sides this season.

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