Tottenham vs Leeds Prediction: 11.05.2026 English Premier League

Tottenham and Leeds will clash in the late hours on May 11th at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with both sides desperate for points in a tense Premier League season. Tottenham, now managed by Roberto De Zerbi, are stuck near the bottom, just above the relegation line, while Leeds, under Daniel Farke, are safe but far from comfortable. Both teams are fighting for more than pride. Tottenham look to avoid one of their worst finishes in recent history; Leeds eye a potential late surge into the top half. Leeds striker Noah Okafor has been prolific, netting four in his last five. For Tottenham, Pedro Porro, not just a defender but also their recent scorer and key creator, is essential to any attacking progress.

Hot stat: Leeds have scored 10 goals in their last five matches, double Tottenham’s output in that span. This firepower could tilt the balance.

Tottenham vs Leeds prediction

We predict a hard-fought encounter, with Leeds looking the sharper side. The best value lies with the double chance on Leeds (Draw or Leeds), thanks to their stronger recent form, clinical finishing, and Tottenham’s defensive leaks. Leeds’ 67% win rate over the last month stands out, compared to Tottenham’s 50%. Tottenham have netted just five times in five games and conceded nine; Leeds, by contrast, have scored ten and conceded just six. Daniel Farke’s men take more shots (70 vs 45 over the last five) and complete more passes (1,668 vs 1,365), underlining their confidence on the ball. Leeds do commit more fouls and rack up more yellow cards, which hints at aggression that could both disrupt Tottenham and open themselves to counterattacks. Tottenham, on the other hand, have struggled to control matches, with fewer passes and lower accuracy.

Team Analysis

Tottenham’s last match saw them scrape past Aston Villa 2-1, finally snapping a poor run. Their form line reads: win, draw, loss, loss, draw. The win gave a glimpse of their capability, with Richarlison and Pedro Porro influencing play in the final third, but the team still looked shaky at the back. Defensive errors remain a recurring problem.

Leeds, meanwhile, thumped Burnley 3-1 in their last outing, showing off both their attacking prowess and ability to control tempo. Their five-match run: win, loss, draw, win, draw. Noah Okafor and Dominic Calvert-Lewin have been dangerous up front, and midfielders like Ao Tanaka and Ethan Ampadu provide stability and energy. Leeds’ style is direct, quick, and risk-taking, which pays off against less compact defenses like Tottenham’s.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Tottenham vs Leeds stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Tottenham the favourite

• Moneyline Tottenham 2.05 | Leeds 3.55
• Draw 3.70
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.82 | Under 2.5 2.00
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.65 | No 2.15

Bookmakers favor Tottenham, likely due to their home advantage and bigger-name squad, but the gap isn’t wide. The value on Leeds is strong given their attacking output and current form. The over 2.5 goals market makes sense, with both teams shaky defensively and Leeds particularly efficient in attack. Both teams to score is a high-probability outcome—Tottenham often concede, but rarely draw blanks.

Possible Starting Lineups

Tottenham possible starting eleven

Kinsky has seen the most action in goal recently. At the back, Porro and van de Ven offer stability, Danso brings defensive grit, and Udogie adds width. The midfield is likely to see Bentancur and Bissouma as the engine, Gallagher for ball progression, with Bergvall and Simons adding creativity and late runs. Richarlison is the focal point up front. The 4-2-3-1 looks set, with Pedro Porro a player to watch for both defensive duties and set-piece threat.

Leeds possible starting eleven

Darlow is the clear number one, with Struijk and Bogle anchoring the defense, and Gudmundsson offering energy on the flank. Ampadu and Tanaka are mainstays in midfield, with Aaronson and Justin likely to start for balance. Up top, Okafor and Calvert-Lewin provide a dangerous partnership. Leeds will probably line up in a 3-4-2-1 or fluid 3-4-3, maximizing Okafor’s form and Calvert-Lewin’s physical presence.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict Leeds to come away with at least a point, possibly all three. Their scoring form, tactical shape, and hunger outweigh Tottenham’s stuttering defense and inconsistent attack. Expect Leeds to score multiple times, but both teams will find the net. To be honest, Tottenham’s vulnerabilities and Leeds’ aggression should make for a high-tempo, chance-filled match.

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