Tondela vs Alverca Prediction: 13.02.2026 Primeira Liga Preview

When Tondela welcomes Alverca to Estádio João Cardoso on February 13th, both sides will recognize the high stakes: neither are safe from relegation concerns, yet a positive result could provide crucial momentum for the campaign’s second half. Set against the backdrop of the Primeira Liga’s intensity, this match features two teams with distinct paths—Tondela fighting to break a stubborn winless run and Alverca aiming to consolidate mid-table security.

Much of the tactical intrigue will center on Tondela’s creative midfielder Clebson Cicero, whose passing accuracy and transitional play offer control in central areas. For Alverca, the dynamic Nabil Touaizi will look to build on his recent goal contributions, threatening with intelligent movement and a sharp eye for link-up play. Both players are instrumental to their sides not only for technical prowess but also the energy and initiative they inject into their team’s forward advances.

The “hot stat” for this fixture: Alverca have notched up 14 corner kicks in their last five games—a clear indication of their offensive initiative, compared to Tondela’s 10 over the same period.

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Tondela vs Alverca prediction

Given recent form and statistical output, the most balanced and value-oriented prediction is Draw No Bet: Alverca. Alverca have shown a marginally stronger run (40 percent win rate this year versus Tondela’s 17 percent), and their capacity to carve open defenses—evidenced by more goals, shots, and corners in recent matches—places them in a slight position of advantage. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, but Alverca’s recent away victory and attacking intent tip the scales.

Tactically, Tondela tend to rely on their 4-2-3-1 for defensive compactness but struggle to convert possession into goals (just two in their last five outings). Their 8 yellow cards in that period hint at a side forced into last-ditch interventions, potentially opening up spaces for Alverca’s 3-4-3, a formation which emphasizes width and direct attacks. Alverca’s sharp set-piece execution (as their corner count shows) and improved interplay through midfielders like Lincoln Henrique and attackers like Lucas Figueiredo may stretch Tondela’s lines.

Team Analysis

Tondela’s Recent Games:
Cristiano Bacci’s Tondela have found consistency elusive. The last match—a battling 2-2 draw at home to Estoril—showed promise in attack, with forward Pedro Maranhão breaking a drought. Previous clashes, however, exposed vulnerabilities: they were shut out and beaten soundly by Famalicao (0-3), Braga (0-1), and Moreirense (0-1). Tondela’s inability to dominate midfield duels and difficulties in defending open-play transitions underline why they’ve only amassed three wins so far this season, with a concerning -21 goal difference.

Alverca’s Recent Games:
Custódio’s Alverca arrive with somewhat better momentum. While their last outing ended in a narrow 1-2 defeat against title-chasing Benfica, the performance was competitive and showed defensive discipline. Before that, they produced a vital home win versus Moreirense (2-1) and split points with Estrela (1-1). Their 0-5 loss to Braga marks a clear warning—Alverca’s backline can be exploited by high-quality attacks, but against sides lower in the table, their press and intensity often prove decisive.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Tondela vs Alverca stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Tondela the favourite

• Moneyline Tondela 2.50 | Alverca 3.02
• Draw 3.10
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.03 | Under 2.5 1.75
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.89 | No 1.88

The odds slightly favour Tondela thanks to home advantage, yet with Alverca’s sharper form and recent attacking stats, the value option lies with backing the visitors on Draw No Bet or double chance. The bookies’ relatively high price for Alverca reflects their inconsistency but downplays their rising momentum.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Tondela possible starting eleven

• GK: Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes
• DF: Christian Marques, Brayan Medina, Bebeto, Nor Nor Emmanuel Maviram
• MF: Clebson Cicero, Joe Hodge, Yaya Sithole, Hélder Tavares, Makan Aiko
• FW: Pedro Maranhão

This likely 4-2-3-1 setup lends defensive stability but places creative responsibility on Cicero and wide players like Makan Aiko. Pedro Maranhão, with his recent scoring form, remains the primary outlet, while the inclusion of Bebeto and Marques adds both experience and composure at the back. Watch for Cicero’s influence on transitions and Aiko’s energy along the flanks.

Alverca possible starting eleven

• GK: Mateus Oliveira Mendes
• DF: Sergi Gómez, Kaiky Marques Naves, Ndemeni Bastien Chefren Meupiyou Menadjou
• MF: Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos, Isaac James, Sabit Abdulai, Francisco Edgar·Chissumba Rodrigues
• FW: Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos, Nabil Touaizi, Marko Milovanović

Alverca’s propensity to field a 3-4-3 capitalizes on attacking width and pressing up high. The trio of Figueiredo, Touaizi, and Milovanović offers goal threat and interplay, especially with Lincoln Henrique supplying from deep. Their back three, while sometimes exposed, will have midfield cover from Abdulai and James—crucial against Tondela’s counters.

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My take on the Match

Given the data and on-field trends, my main prediction is Alverca Draw No Bet. The squad’s recent attacking output, ability to earn set pieces, and slightly better defensive structure provide enough upside, especially with Tondela’s lack of goals and heavy reliance on a few creative sparks. Expect a tense, tactical affair—a narrow win for Alverca or a low-scoring draw appears most probable, with both sides battling anxiety as much as the opposition.

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