Togo vs Sudan Prediction: 09.09.2025 FIFA World Cup CAF Qualification 2026 Preview

The Stade de Kegue in Lome prepares to witness a pivotal encounter as Togo host Sudan in Group B of the FIFA World Cup CAF Qualification 2026. With Togo still searching for their first win in this phase and Sudan keen to cement their top-three placing, the stakes are high, especially given both sides’ recent inconsistencies and desire to prove their mettle on African football’s grandest qualifying stage. Intriguingly, both teams have struggled for attacking prowess lately but possess players capable of producing game-changing moments.

A close look at the squads reveals that Togo’s forward Kevin Denkey, despite a frustrating goal drought, remains a physical presence and target man upfront, while Sudan will look to Mohamed Tia Abu Daqn, their most recent scorer, hoping his energy and willingness to run the channels disrupt Togo’s backline. Midfield dynamo Dermane Karim for Togo and Sudan’s industrious Mohamed Mahamoud are as crucial in dictating their respective teams’ tempo. With so much on the line, these battles in the middle of the park could be decisive.

Notably, Sudan arrive with a remarkable trend of collecting corners—25 in their last five fixtures—showcasing set-piece threat and sustained width, a “hot stat” to keep in mind for anyone scrutinising potential match-winners or betting markets.

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Togo vs Sudan prediction

Despite dire form from both sides, an argument could be made for marginal Togo superiority at home, particularly given Sudan’s travel fatigue—six games in the last month alone compared to Togo’s single outing. Togo’s need to ignite their campaign can spur a more aggressive approach, while Sudan’s robust midfield play and high number of corners point to a combative affair. The best value pick here leans towards a “Draw No Bet” on Togo, mitigating some of the risk stemming from their attacking woes but leveraging home soil advantage.

Stylistically, Togo have shown a tendency for cautious build-up but lack bite up front (just four goals in the group phase). They rarely get involved in foul-heavy duels but do average more midfield turnovers, which could leave them susceptible to Sudan’s rapid transitions. Sudan, for their part, are physical—eleven yellow cards and 77 fouls in their last five matches—suggesting we might see stop-start action and plenty of set-piece opportunities, especially with their high corner count. Neither side has a flourishing attack; expect cagey play, long stretches of midfield grappling, and the odd flash of individual brilliance potentially settling the tie.

Team Analysis

Togo’s recent games:
Togo’s last outing, a 0-2 defeat to Mauritania, exposed their defensive frailties and inability to respond after conceding. Despite the presence of talents like Djené and Denkey, Togo often find themselves lacking creative incision and clinical finishing. Their last five fixtures include three draws and two losses, with a dismal record of only four goals in the qualification campaign. Squad rotation remains minimal due to a thin bench, making them predictable but potentially more cohesive against sides lacking star quality.

Sudan’s recent games:
Sudan also fell 0-2 to Senegal in their latest fixture—a result many would have anticipated given Senegal’s defensive might. However, Sudan showed spirit and pressed bravely, underlining their set-piece danger with a flurry of corners and attempts. Earlier, they went down in a 3-5 goal-fest, again versus Senegal, hinting at vulnerabilities when pushed out of their conservative 4-4-2 comfort zone. Their knack for earning free kicks and yellow cards denotes a high-octane pressing game, but finishing often lets them down.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Togo vs Sudan stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Togo the favourite

• Moneyline Togo 2.27 | Sudan 3.30
• Draw 2.94
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.85 | Under 2.5 1.34
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.17 | No 1.68

Togo edge the outright odds due to home advantage and Sudan’s erratic away form, but the margins are far from overwhelming. The market expects goals at a premium, matching well with both sides’ creative struggles. The price on ‘both teams to score: no’ is short, reflecting the attacking inefficiency from both, while the over/under numbers further back a likely cagey, low-scoring affair. Overall, these odds align nicely with statistical and tactical realities.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Togo possible starting eleven

The Togolese eleven should feature their regulars in a familiar 4-3-3. Achirafou Yaya starts in goal with Djené organising the defence. Midfield pivots around Karim’s energy, while Denkey and Klidjé lead the three-man attack flanked by Kodjo and Annor—this quartet must spark improvement in Togo’s attacking play. Watch for Denkey—if he breaks his duck, confidence could surge throughout the squad.

Sudan possible starting eleven

Sudan are expected to line up in their customary 4-4-2, anchored by Alnour Adam Saeed between the sticks and a solid back four. Their midfield is robust—with Mahamoud and Khidir dictating play—while Tia Abu Daqn partners Musa Ali up top, both eager to pounce on mistakes. Expect plenty of defensive work but also forward surges from Khidir, whose two recent assists highlight creative potential.

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My take on the Match

My main pick here is Togo Draw No Bet. The logic? Togo are desperate for their maiden win and, even amidst attacking traumas, should respond to home pressure. Sudan are dogged and will scrap for every ball, but their penchant for conceding under duress away from home remains a real weakness. The most likely scenario, though, is a tense tussle settled by one moment—or none at all—with Sudan’s corner threat needing to be stifled if Togo are to break their duck. On balance, this match will be about grit rather than glamour, with Togo’s hunger likely just shading it.

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