Tobol vs Partizan Prediction: 13.08.2026 UEFA Conference League

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Partizan head to Kostanay with a commanding 3-0 lead from the first leg, making this second leg of the UEFA Conference League 2026/27 Third Qualifying Round a near-formality on paper. Tobol are playing at home, which matters emotionally, but the aggregate scoreline leaves almost no room for error. What makes this interesting is that Partizan’s striker Zubairu Ibrahim has scored five goals across his last six appearances, and Tobol have yet to find any kind of reliable attacking rhythm, managing just two goals across their last five competitive matches.

Two players worth watching closely: Ibrahim is the obvious one for Partizan, a constant threat who has been clinical in front of goal this campaign. For Tobol, midfielder Amine Talal is one of the few who has shown any real creative intent, chipping in with a goal in recent domestic fixtures and carrying most of the attacking burden in a squad that looks short on quality at this level. The hot stat from this tie is Partizan’s 87 total shots across their last five matches compared to Tobol’s 46, a gap that reflects just how one-sided the attacking output has been between these two sides.

Tobol vs Partizan prediction

With a 3-0 first-leg deficit, Tobol would need to score at least four goals without reply to advance on aggregate. That is not going to happen. Their domestic form over the last 30 days shows just two wins from seven matches, and their goal output in recent competitive games has been poor. Partizan, on the other hand, have won five of their last eight matches and come into this leg with real confidence. Even if Sasa Ilic rotates his squad to manage fatigue, the Serbian side should have more than enough quality to protect their lead and likely add to it.

Tobol average a high number of fouls relative to their output, with their squad accumulating eight yellow cards across the last five matches while generating almost nothing going forward. Partizan collected 14 yellow cards in the same period, which reflects an aggressive pressing style, but they back it up with 87 shots and 28 corner kicks. Their pass accuracy sits at 706 out of 854 attempts, showing they are not just direct, but structured. Tobol’s passing data is largely unavailable, which honestly tells its own story about the quality of the data collection at this level of Kazakhstani football, but the on-pitch evidence is clear enough. Partizan’s press and positional dominance should create problems for a Tobol side that has struggled to hold shape against top-tier opposition this season.

Team Analysis

Tobol’s recent run is difficult to defend. They lost to Partizan 3-0 in the first leg, then dropped 0-2 to Ordabasy in the Kazakhstani league, a domestic rival ranked well below European competition standards. Their only positive results in the last month came against significantly weaker opposition, including Atyrau and two draws against Panevezys. The squad under Miroslav Romashchenko appears to lack the physical and technical tools to compete at the Conference League qualifying stage. Eight yellow cards in five matches also suggests a side that is often chasing games and conceding territory. Honestly, the numbers paint a grim picture for the hosts here.

Partizan’s form has been notably stronger. They won five of their last eight matches, with their most recent league outing ending in a 1-2 defeat to IMT Novi Beograd, their only real blemish in an otherwise strong period. Before that, they beat UNA Strassen 4-0 and 1-0 in the qualifying rounds, then dismantled Macva 3-1 in domestic competition. The first leg 3-0 win over Tobol was controlled and professional. Sasa Ilic has a squad with genuine depth, and players like Erik Kojzek, who has four assists in six matches, and Chak Traore with three goals from midfield, give Partizan attacking options beyond just Ibrahim. Two red cards across five matches suggest some disciplinary issues to monitor, but it has not affected their results significantly.

🚨Check out our dedicated Tobol vs Partizan stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Partizan the favourite

• Moneyline Tobol 2.92 | Partizan 2.22
• Draw 3.30
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The market has Partizan as favourites at around 2.22, which feels about right given the aggregate situation. Tobol at 2.92 is a number that reflects home advantage and the second-leg dynamic, but we think the Serbian side’s quality is being underpriced slightly in the outright match context. The draw at 3.30 is interesting only if Partizan decide to sit deep and manage the tie, which Ilic may well do. The real value, if any, sits in Partizan winning or the match staying low-scoring from Tobol’s end, as the hosts have very little to offer going forward at this level.

Possible Starting Lineups

Tobol possible starting eleven

Romashchenko will likely set up in a 4-1-4-1 shape, their most used formation recently. Ustimenko is the clear choice in goal. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Cavnić the only defender who has found the net in recent weeks. In midfield, Tagybergen has been involved in build-up play with an assist and should feature centrally. Talal is the one to watch, as he carries the most attacking threat from a deeper position. Up front, Chesnokov leads the line but will receive very little service if Tobol are pinned back early.

Partizan possible starting eleven

Partizan’s 4-2-3-1 structure has been consistent across recent matches. Krunic starts in goal with three saves across six appearances. The back four is anchored by Simić and Djurdjevic, the latter accumulating three yellow cards suggesting a physical approach to defending. Kojzek is arguably the most important player in this lineup outside of Ibrahim, with four assists in six games, he creates the chances that the forwards convert. Ibrahim himself with five goals is the central threat. Traore coming from midfield with three goals adds another dimension. We think Partizan will look to end this tie early and spare their key players unnecessary minutes in the second half.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

This second leg is effectively a dead rubber from a qualification standpoint. Partizan are 3-0 up and, based on everything the numbers show, they are the far superior side. Tobol have managed just two goals across five matches, their defensive structure is suspect, and they are coming off a 0-2 domestic loss. Partizan may not go all out here, but their squad depth means even a rotated lineup should be enough to win or draw on the night.

We think Partizan win this match, maybe without a great deal of urgency, but comfortably enough. The Tobol attack has not shown it can trouble a Serbian top-flight defense, and Partizan’s press should disrupt any attempt at building from the back. A Partizan win with goals likely coming through Ibrahim, Traore, or Kojzek’s creative work is the most logical outcome. For those looking at totals, over 2.5 goals in the match makes sense given Partizan’s attacking output and Tobol’s defensive fragility shown in the first leg.

• Match result: Partizan win
• Both teams to score: No
• Total goals: Over 2.5
• Hot tip: Partizan to score in both halves

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