Alex MacQuoid
Dinamo Zagreb arrive in Switzerland as clear favorites for this second qualifying round first leg, and honestly, the gap in European pedigree between these two clubs makes the bookmakers’ pricing pretty reasonable. Thun, playing out of the Swiss Challenge League, have punched above their weight domestically this year but face a different animal entirely here. What makes this match genuinely interesting is the fixture coming so soon after Thun’s 3-8 loss to Young Boys in late June — a result that exposed real defensive vulnerabilities, yet they followed it with a 6-2 win over Xamax, which tells you something about how unpredictable Jeff Strasser’s side can be at Stockhorn Arena.
For Dinamo Zagreb, Mario Kovacevic will be keen to establish control early. Their form over the last 30 days — three wins and a draw from four matches — reflects a team that is well-oiled heading into European competition. The Croatian giants have not lost in their last ten matches, and that kind of consistency is hard to ignore. Watch the Dinamo midfield closely; their ability to recycle possession and press high is likely to be the biggest tactical factor in this match. On the Thun side, their attacking output in recent weeks — particularly in the 6-2 demolition of Xamax — suggests their forward line can cause problems on transitions, and any Thun player who can exploit space behind a high Dinamo defensive line will be the one to watch.
Hot stat: Dinamo Zagreb beat Brinje Grosuplje 9-0 in their most recent competitive outing before their last two matches, underscoring just how dominant they have been against lower-tier opposition this summer. Thun’s last five competitive results include a swing from a 3-8 defeat to a 6-2 win — the variance in their performances is striking.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stockhorn Arena, Thun |
| 🗓️ Date: | 21.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction
The case for a Dinamo Zagreb win here is straightforward. They carry a 75% win rate over the last 30 days, their squad depth far exceeds what Thun can offer, and they come in with genuine European experience. Thun’s home record does provide a layer of comfort — they have won 14 of 24 matches this year — but their defensive fragility, evidenced by conceding 8 to Young Boys and 2 to Mannheim in recent weeks, is a real problem against a Dinamo side that scored nine in their last cup outing.
Thun tend to commit to an open style of play, which generates chances at both ends. Their foul counts in recent matches suggest they are not a team that parks the bus, and Dinamo’s movement in the final third should find space. We think the most likely outcome is a Dinamo win, with goals flowing in both directions given Thun’s attacking inclination and defensive brittleness. A straight Dinamo win to nil feels too generous a price to lay against a Thun side that does score, so both teams to score combined with a Dinamo victory is the value angle here.
- Main tip: Dinamo Zagreb to win
- Value pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes
- Goals market: Over 2.5 goals
Thun’s style — relatively high press, frequent fouls to disrupt transitions, and a willingness to commit men forward — means this match is unlikely to be a tight, tactical affair. Dinamo will not sit back either; Kovacevic’s teams typically seek to dominate possession and move the ball quickly through the lines. With Thun averaging a high number of free kicks conceded in recent matches, Dinamo’s set-piece delivery could be a secondary avenue to goals. The corner market also looks promising given both teams’ tendencies to attack wide and whip in deliveries from the flanks.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Dinamo Zagreb to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Thun’s last 30 days have been a mixed bag — one win, one draw, one loss from three matches. The loss came against Mannheim (1-2), a result that will sting heading into a European tie, and the draw against Elversberg (1-1) before that showed a team capable of competing but not consistently finishing off games. Going back slightly further, the 6-2 win over Xamax was encouraging, though Xamax’s ranking suggests limited resistance. The 3-8 collapse against Young Boys in late June is the stat that lingers; Thun were torn apart by a team pressing aggressively from the front, and Dinamo Zagreb have the personnel to do the same. Jeff Strasser will need a defensive game plan that is significantly more disciplined than what was on show in that match.
Dinamo Zagreb’s recent form is genuinely impressive. Three wins and a draw in their last four, with a 4-2 win over Koper being the most recent league outing before a 0-0 draw with LNZ. That draw against LNZ is the only blemish in a ten-match unbeaten run, and even then it came in a match where rotating the squad ahead of European fixtures was likely a factor. The 9-0 against Brinje Grosuplje and the 3-0 against Radomlje tell the story of a team in dominant domestic form. They have not lost since early in the year, and their consistency over 30 matches — 22 wins from 30 — places them in a different category to almost any Swiss second-tier opponent.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two clubs have not met before, so there is no historical head-to-head data to draw from. The only entry in the head-to-head record is the upcoming fixture itself.
🚨Check out our dedicated Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Dinamo Zagreb the Favourite
- Moneyline Thun 3.45 | Dinamo Zagreb 1.98
- Draw 3.65
The market has Dinamo Zagreb at roughly 1.93–2.07 across the major books, which reflects a win probability somewhere around 47–52%. For a club of Dinamo’s stature against a Swiss second-tier side, that actually represents decent value on the Croatian side — the bookmakers are perhaps giving Thun’s home advantage more credit than the underlying form warrants. The draw at 3.30–3.86 is not particularly appealing given how one-sided the quality gap is, and Thun at 3.20–3.60 is only worth considering if you believe the home factor and Dinamo’s potential squad rotation can combine to produce an upset. We think Dinamo at around 1.95–2.00 is the cleanest entry point.
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Thun. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Dinamo Zagreb are the right side to back here, and the numbers back that up clearly. A 73% win rate across 30 matches this year against Thun’s 58%, a ten-match unbeaten run versus Thun’s recent inconsistency, and a club ranking that sits comfortably in the top tier of European football — all of it points in one direction. The question is not really whether Dinamo win, but whether Thun can get on the scoresheet. Given Thun’s attacking output even in losses and their tendency to play open football, we lean toward both teams scoring.
The 0-0 draw in Dinamo’s most recent match against LNZ is worth noting as a mild caution, but that fixture came before a competitive European assignment and rotation was almost certainly involved. Expect Kovacevic to name a strong side here. Thun at Stockhorn Arena will make noise and their fans will push them, maybe enough to get a goal, but Dinamo controlling the match for large stretches and converting their chances feels like the most probable outcome. Our prediction: Dinamo Zagreb win, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals total.
