The New Saints vs Shkendija Prediction: 08.07.2025 UEFA Champions League Preview

When the Champions League anthem rings out at Park Hall in Oswestry, The New Saints and Shkendija will stride onto the pitch not only representing their clubs but also carrying the hopes of Wales and North Macedonia respectively. Both sides have enjoyed continental campaigns before, but the lure of advancing further remains as intense as ever. Interestingly, while TNS command more European pedigree by ranking, recent domestic form muddies the waters, setting up a fascinating tactical battle. This tie, the first qualifying round of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League, is more than a mere curtain-raiser; it’s a telling litmus test for both managers: Craig Harrison, the ever-calculating tactician for TNS, and Jeton Bekjiri, who helms a Shkendija side eyeing another upset.

Key players to watch include The New Saints’ lively forward Declan McManus, who boasts a knack for delivering under pressure and Shkendija’s versatile attacker Besart Ibraimi, whose flashes of skill can alter the narrative in an instant. With both sides searching for attacking inspiration, the creative influence of these two will be pivotal.

Hot stat: The New Saints have remained unbeaten in 13 of their last 15 home matches in all competitions at Park Hall—a testament to their fortress-like consistency on familiar turf.

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The New Saints vs Shkendija prediction

After dissecting both squads’ form and profiles, the most prudent pick here is an Asian Handicap (0) or Draw No Bet towards The New Saints. Why? Despite an unremarkable month (no wins in their last three), TNS have demonstrated an admirable home resilience and tactical maturity under Harrison. Shkendija, with a slightly higher winrate in their last 30 days, are a threat but have tended to falter against defensively-organised opponents.

Both clubs play with directness but are not reckless—TNS favour possession-heavy buildups (as reflected in past match pass accuracy) and measured pressing, which limits their fouls and disciplinary issues. Shkendija, meanwhile, counter with efficient midfield links and a tendency for fouls when stretched under pressure, meaning we could see a few cards but nothing outlandishly high.

Given the nature of the first legs in two-legged ties—where caution often trumps chaos—a low-scoring draw or an edgy one-goal victory for TNS seems likely. Corners could be a touch above average, given both teams’ focus on wing play, but don’t expect a high-scoring classic this time.

Team Analysis

The New Saints – Recent Games & Analysis:
TNS are coming into this Champions League opener off a run of three matches without a win (L-D-D). Their most recent outing, a 0-1 defeat to Newtown, was a frustrating affair that exposed some attacking bluntness and perhaps a bit of complacency following a long dominant stretch. Before that, they’d drawn 1-1 with Ayr and 2-2 with Larne, both games showing flashes of their ability to control possession but also a worrying inability to finish gilt-edged chances.

Over the year, TNS have picked up an impressive 79% win rate from 19 matches—speaking volumes for their consistency. However, stepping up to European competition always presents a different type of pressure. Defensively they are usually sound, rarely conceding cheaply at Park Hall, and Harrison is expected to revert to his strongest XI for this crucial clash.

Shkendija – Recent Games & Analysis:
Shkendija’s recent results inspire cautious optimism: two wins, one draw, and one lopsided defeat in their last four games. Most notably, they edged Dinamo Tirana 2-1, showing character after going behind, but their 0-4 humbling by Koper exposed defensive cracks when pressed by high-tempo attacks. They tend to oscillate between well-drilled organisation and brief, damaging lapses—a sign of a side in transition under Bekjiri.

Their year-to-date win rate of 54% over 28 matches indicates a competitive but not dominant side in Macedonian football. Yet, as history tells us, Shkendija often lift their performance on the continental stage, particularly when underestimated.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full The New Saints vs Shkendija stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: The New Saints the favourite

• Moneyline The New Saints 2.17 | Shkendija 3.30
• Draw 3.44
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.30 | Under 2.5 1.60
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.25 | No 1.65

The bookmakers lean towards The New Saints, albeit with a modest 44 percent win probability. Shkendija’s odds reflect their underdog status away from home, but they are not to be taken lightly. The narrow spread suggests a tight encounter, and the low Over/Under odds for Under 2.5 hint at a match likely to be decided by narrow margins—with both managers known for pragmatic approaches at this stage of the competition.

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Possible Starting Lineups

The New Saints possible starting eleven

Craig Harrison will likely opt for a familiar 4-3-3, maximising their wide options and steady midfield. Roberts’ experience in goal is instrumental, while the leadership and aerial strength of Astles at the back offer assurance. Routledge’s passing range will anchor the midfield, freeing up Smith and Clark to drive play. Up front, McManus and Robles can be expected to create headaches for a sometimes erratic Shkendija defence. This lineup offers balance, energy, and a proven track record at home.

Shkendija possible starting eleven

Bekjiri’s most trusted shape is a flexible 4-2-3-1 that morphs into a 4-3-3 in attack. Zahov’s shot-stopping has bailed them out before, and the defensive duo of Bejtulai and Hasani will need discipline to stifle TNS’s front line. Shehu and Iseni offer ball-winning bite, while the trio behind Ibraimi boast pace and unpredictability. The wild card could be Nafiu’s ability to exploit gaps, particularly late on. This formation has the right balance to frustrate and counter rapidly.

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My take on the Match

Given the strengths, recent doubts, and European ambitions of both clubs, my main pick is The New Saints on a Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0). The Welsh outfit’s home strength, combined with deeper squad cohesion under Harrison, should give them just enough of an edge to avoid defeat. However, Shkendija’s unpredictability and attacking verve mean a nervy night isn’t out of the question—backed by their well-drilled lines and a tendency to spring surprises. Supporters can expect a chess-like tactical duel that, while perhaps not a thriller, will be compelling for the purist. TNS look set to edge it, but a low-scoring draw remains a very real prospect.

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