Tarma vs Deportivo Garcilaso Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Liga 1 2025 Apertura Match - 28.06.2025

On June 28, 2025, Estadio Union Tarma in the heart of Tarma will witness a pivotal Liga 1 Apertura showdown as Tarma host Deportivo Garcilaso. The match kicks off at 21:00 CEST, with both sides seeking crucial points as the season reaches its competitive midpoint in Peru’s top-flight football. Tarma, under the guidance of Leo Rojas, look to halt a worrying slide in form, while Guillermo Duró’s Deportivo Garcilaso arrive eager to solidify their upper-table credentials.

All eyes will be on two instrumental figures: Tarma’s defensive leader Jhon Narvaez, whose ball-playing and tactical discipline anchor the backline, and Garcilaso’s forward Adrián Ugarriza, whose clinical finishing has often made the difference in tight encounters. These two could shape the match’s destiny outside of the usual spotlight of the goalkeepers.

Notably, Deportivo Garcilaso’s recent fixture against Juan Pablo II saw them record an emphatic 4-0 victory, a clear testament to their offensive potency and ability to capitalize against struggling defenses.

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Tarma vs Deportivo Garcilaso predictions

My best bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes). Given Garcilaso’s recent attacking fluency evident in an average of two goals per game over their last three and Tarma’s defensive gaps (conceding eight goals in their last three league matches), this contest looks primed for action at both ends. While Tarma have struggled to secure results, their need for points, home advantage, and Garcilaso’s sometimes vulnerable rearguard suggest that both sides will have ample opportunity to find the net.

Stylistically, Tarma have oscillated between a structured 4-3-3 and moments of individual improvisation, but have been undermined by lapses in discipline 12 total fouls and a red card in their recent stretch betray a desperation to disrupt more competent attacks. Garcilaso, lining up in a fluid 3-4-1-2, thrive on transitions and create overloads in midfield. However, their robust press comes at a price in the form of bookings: they accumulated eight yellow cards across their last five outings, illustrating a combative edge that can leave them exposed during defensive transitions. The combination of frequent fouls (35 for Garcilaso recently) and high pressing may contribute to more set-piece opportunities for both teams a trend worth monitoring for its potential betting value.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Tarma vs Deportivo Garcilaso Most recent H2Hs

Their most recent head-to-head meeting in the Liga 1 2024 Clausura ended with a narrow 1-0 win for Deportivo Garcilaso. Despite bookmakers favoring Tarma in that encounter, it was Garcilaso’s clinical approach and defensive resilience that ultimately prevailed. Both sides generated a similar number of goal-scoring opportunities, but Garcilaso’s edge lay in their superior passing accuracy and ability to convert set pieces into dangerous situations a trend worth considering when evaluating the upcoming rematch.

🚨Read our full Tarma vs Deportivo Garcilaso stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Deportivo Garcilaso have scored 8 goals in their last five matches, compared to just 3 for Tarma.
• Garcilaso’s recent matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 games.
• Tarma have accumulated 12 yellow cards in their last 5 games an indicator of defensive stress and tactical fouling.
• Garcilaso have won 67 percent of their games in the last 30 days.
• Both teams average more than 10 fouls per game, highlighting the likelihood of a physical contest.

Tarma vs Deportivo Garcilaso score prediction: 1-2

Deportivo Garcilaso’s current momentum, spearheaded by the attacking duo of Pablo Agustin Erustes and Adrián Ugarriza, gives them a narrow edge. While Tarma’s defensive woes are likely to persist, home support could inspire a spirited reply expect Jhon Narvaez and Gerson Barreto to play decisive roles in keeping Tarma in the contest. Still, the visitors’ attacking variety and midfield control should be enough to secure a 2-1 away win.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Tarma the favourite

Bookmakers suggest Tarma as slight favourites thanks to home advantage and historical odds trends. However, the sharp gap in recent form Garcilaso’s superior winrate and clinical edge creates genuine value on the away side and BTTS markets. Odds on over 2.5 goals are also attractive considering both teams’ recent defensive vulnerabilities and offensive intent.

Tarma vs Deportivo Garcilaso Over/Under Analysis

• 3 of Deportivo Garcilaso’s last 4 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
• Tarma have conceded at least 2 goals in 3 straight matches.
• Garcilaso’s games average 3.2 goals per match since the start of June.
• Recent foul counts suggest a high probability of multiple set-pieces and thus goalmouth opportunities.

Tarma Preview

Tarma enter the match amid a difficult run, having lost their last three by an aggregate score of 0-8, with their last league outing ending in a 0-5 defeat to leaders Universitario de Deportes. The 4-3-3 formation has not yielded stability, and with defensive vulnerabilities and red-card discipline issues, Tarma are desperate for a recalibration. However, home support at Estadio Union Tarma could motivate players like Narvaez and Barreto to elevate their individual performances.

Deportivo Garcilaso Preview

Garcilaso arrive in stronger shape, winning two of their last three, including a thumping 4-0 against Juan Pablo II, though a recent 2-3 slip against Sporting Cristal exposes their defensive openness. The 3-4-1-2 system provides robust transition options and allows Ugarriza and Erustes to spearhead attacks. The team’s ability to spread goal-scoring responsibility positions them as a significant threat, especially against a Tarma side struggling for clean sheets.

Our prediction: Who Wins?

Main pick: Deportivo Garcilaso Double Chance (Win or Draw). As TipsGG team experts, we see Garcilaso’s superior recent form and attacking balance giving them the edge. AI prediction engine assigns a 46 percent win probability to Deportivo Garcilaso, 30 percent to Tarma, and the remainder to a draw. In a contest of form versus home advantage, the visitors’ energy and discipline should prevail.

How to watch Tarma vs Deportivo Garcilaso

When? June 28, 2025. Kick-off at 21:00 CEST.

Where? Estadio Union Tarma, Tarma (PE).

How to watch: Local Peruvian broadcasters, plus streaming via official Liga 1 partners (consult local listings).

Favourite: Tarma (by odds), though the form book tells a different story.

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