Sofia Quijada
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Tarma sit rock bottom of the Clausura table with just two points from nine games, and their home form gives little reason for optimism against a Cienciano side that, on paper, should be pulling away from them. Cienciano arrive with a curious backdrop though: they spent the last fortnight locked in a two-legged Copa de la Liga tie against Montevideo City Torque, winning the first leg 2-0 before collapsing 0-3 in the return and getting knocked out on aggregate. That continental detour likely drained legs and focus right when the league table demands urgent points. Both clubs enter this one desperate, but for very different reasons: Tarma to avoid a historically bad campaign, Cienciano to climb out of 14th place before the gap to safety grows uncomfortable.
Carlos Garcés has been Cienciano’s most reliable attacking threat, scoring three goals from 17 shots across his last five appearances, and he looks the obvious focal point up top again. For Tarma, Jeremy Canela stands out as practically the only source of end product, netting their solitary goal in this sample and racking up 11 shots, a number nobody else in that squad comes close to matching.
Hot stat: Tarma have scored only two goals across their last five matches combined, while Cienciano have fired 94 total shots in the same stretch compared to Tarma’s 44. That gap in output tells most of the story before kickoff.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga 1 2026, Clausura Phase |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 22:00 CEST |
Tarma vs Cienciano prediction
We lean toward Cienciano avoiding defeat here, and our preferred angle is Cienciano on the double chance. Tarma have won once in their last five outings and haven’t scored more than two goals in any of them, while Cienciano, despite their own inconsistency, still carry a squad ranked hundreds of places higher globally and a shot output more than double their opponent’s. Backing Cienciano outright feels reasonable too, but the double chance covers the draw risk that comes with a tired squad fresh off a continental exit.
Style-wise this should be a physical, stop-start match. Cienciano committed 80 fouls and picked up 12 yellow cards plus three reds across their last five games, well above Tarma’s 40 fouls and six bookings in the same span, so referee involvement should be frequent. Passing numbers are interesting too: Tarma actually complete a higher share of their passes (around 80%) than Cienciano (around 71%), but they generate far fewer shots from that possession, suggesting a side that is safe with the ball but toothless in the final third. Expect a scrappy, foul-heavy contest where territorial control from Cienciano doesn’t necessarily translate into a goal avalanche.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Cienciano Double Chance (Draw or Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Tarma’s last match ended 0-2 against Alianza Lima, extending a run in which they’ve now lost four of their previous five and scored just twice. Before that, they shipped three at Melgar and three more against Sport Huancayo, with the only bright spot a 2-0 win over struggling Moquegua. The pattern is consistent: a defense that leaks goals in bunches and an attack that rarely finds the net twice in the same game. Nine losses across their last 15 matches, with a mere three wins in that span, paint a club fighting relegation rather than results.
Cienciano’s most recent outing was that 0-3 loss to Montevideo City Torque, which eliminated them from the Copa de la Liga despite the 2-0 first-leg cushion. In our preview of Cienciano vs Montevideo City Torque we backed Torque to get the win needed to progress, and the 0-3 scoreline delivered exactly that, even though the BTTS side of our staking angle missed since Cienciano failed to register a shot on target. Domestically Cienciano remain streaky, mixing a 5-2 thrashing of FC Cajamarca with a 1-5 collapse against Sport Boys inside the same five-game window, which explains why 14th place still feels precarious for a club ranked so much higher globally than most of their Clausura rivals.
🚨Check out our dedicated Tarma vs Cienciano stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Cienciano the favourite
- Moneyline Tarma 2.91 | Cienciano 2.31
- Draw 3.31
Bookmakers give Cienciano the clearest edge, roughly 40% implied win chance against Tarma’s 32%, which lines up with the gulf in shot volume and global ranking between the two sides. The draw at odds close to 3.30 reflects how open this table’s bottom half has been, and given Cienciano’s recent stumbles against weaker opposition, that draw price looks worth respecting rather than dismissing outright.
Possible Starting Lineups
Tarma possible starting eleven
- GK: Carlos Martin Solis
- DF: Jhair Soto, Alejandro Ramos, Joaquín Pereira, Orlando Nunez
- MF: Luis Pérez, Jeremy Canela, Joao Rojas, Jair Reyes, Angel Ojeda
- FW: Juan Lucumi
Víctor Rivera’s 4-2-3-1 leans on Canela as the creative outlet behind Lucumi, who has taken more shots than any other Tarma forward in the sample. Solis keeps his spot in goal after four consecutive starts, and the back four remains largely unchanged given the lack of alternatives with real minutes.
Cienciano possible starting eleven
- GK: Ítalo Espinoza
- DF: Kevin Becerra, Marcos Martinich, Rotceh Aguilar, Claudio Nuñez
- MF: Santiago Arias, Gerson Barreto, Ray Sandoval, Carlos Cabello, Gonzalo Aguirre
- FW: Carlos Garcés
Horacio Melgarejo also favors a 4-2-3-1, with Arias and Barreto shielding the back line while Sandoval and Cabello, both direct goal contributors this season, support Garcés up front. Becerra’s passing range from right-back (170 attempts in five games) makes him a key outlet for building attacks against a deep Tarma block.
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Cienciano. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Cienciano avoid defeat in Tarma, most likely through a narrow win built on their superior shot volume and Tarma’s ongoing scoring drought. Perhaps a 0-1 or 1-1 outcome captures this best: Tarma’s defense has been generous but their attack rarely punishes anyone, while Cienciano’s own recent form suggests goals won’t flow freely either. To be honest, the safer route here is the double chance on Cienciano paired with under 2.5 total goals, a combination that respects both sides’ attacking limitations without ignoring the class gap between them.
