Tarma vs Alianza Lima Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Liga 1 - 14.04.2026

The Liga 1 2026 Apertura presents a riveting encounter as Tarma hosts Alianza Lima at the historic Estadio Union Tarma in the city of Tarma, Peru. Set for kick-off at 22:15 CEST on 14 April 2026, this fixture brings together two teams with contrasting trajectories but shared ambitions in the heart of Peruvian football. While Alianza Lima’s consistent performances have solidified their position as title contenders, Tarma is eager to carve out crucial points on home soil and defy the bookmakers’ predictions.

This match is not short of key players capable of changing the outcome within moments. For Tarma, midfielder Jordan Guivin stands out with his recent goals and relentless energy in the engine room. Alianza Lima counters with the dynamic forward Erick Castillo, whose incisive runs and goal-scoring instinct have made him a focal point of their attack. Their duels in midfield and advanced areas promise to shape the tempo and intensity of the match.

A “hot stat” from recent matches: Alianza Lima have conceded only five goals in nine Apertura fixtures, underlining the discipline and structure Pablo Guede has instilled in their defensive phase — the best defensive record among the league’s top teams.

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Tarma vs Alianza Lima predictions

Me best bet: Alianza Lima to win. Despite Tarma’s home advantage and their demonstrated ability to trouble stronger opponents on occasion, Alianza Lima’s greater consistency and tactical discipline make them favorites here. Their superior win rate (50% in the last 30 days, 53% in the current campaign) and impressive defensive numbers instill confidence in their ability to edge this contest. Furthermore, the versatility in attack provided by Castillo and the midfield orchestration of Esteban Pavez should see them control large periods of the game.

Both teams favor the 4-2-3-1 formation, yet statistical trends reveal subtle divergences in style. Tarma has committed 37 fouls in their last five matches, picking up 10 yellow cards, signifying a combative and sometimes desperate approach in midfield. Alianza Lima, in contrast, have managed only five yellow cards with a comparable fouls tally (35), reflecting a disciplined press and intelligent positional play. Tarma’s higher interception rate (23) indicates a willingness to disrupt, but their occasional recklessness could expose them to set-piece dangers or costly bookings. Ball possession, inferred from pass counts and completion rates, has been slightly higher for Alianza Lima (909 passes, 82 percent accuracy) than Tarma (828 passes, 76 percent), suggesting more control and composure in central phases — factors that should tilt proceedings in the visitor’s favor.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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A look at their most recent head-to-head record reveals that home field has traditionally been decisive: Tarma swept Alianza Lima 3-0 the last time they met at this venue, while Alianza Lima claimed a convincing 3-1 victory in the previous encounter. However, underlying trends point to Alianza Lima’s evolving resilience and more diverse attacking solutions over the past year.

🚨Read our full Tarma vs Alianza Lima stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Alianza Lima has won six of its last nine Apertura matches and conceded just five goals (best among leading teams).
• Tarma has lost twice at home in the last month, conceding five goals in those fixtures.
• Alianza Lima’s pass accuracy in the last five matches: 82 percent, indicating midfield control.
• Jordan Guivin is Tarma’s leading scorer over the last month, directly involved in 50 percent of their goals.
• Both teams have averaged two yellow cards per match in recent meetings, highlighting a competitive but not reckless rivalry.

Tarma vs Alianza Lima score prediction: 0-1

In a contest likely defined by tactical caution and disciplined pressing, Alianza Lima’s superior structure in defense and attacking transitions should be decisive. Expect Erick Castillo’s direct play and Paolo Guerrero’s experience to trouble Tarma’s backline, while Tarma’s sporadic attacking threat may find it difficult to break through Alianza Lima’s disciplined lines. A narrow 1-0 victory for the visitors appears most probable, with late impacts from substitute forwards a potential plot twist if Tarma pushes numbers forward late.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Alianza Lima the favourite

The bookmakers slightly favor Alianza Lima, reflecting their better season form and stronger pedigree. The under 2.5 goals market is heavily preferred, echoing both teams’ recent trends for tight, low-scoring matches, especially given Alianza Lima’s formidable defense. Tarma’s attractive moneyline odds indicate home field can play a role, but statistical and qualitative analysis justifies confidence in the visitors despite the away fixture.

Tarma vs Alianza Lima Over/Under Analysis

• Four of Alianza Lima’s last five matches have produced under 2.5 goals.
• Tarma’s last three matches have all ended with two or fewer goals.
• Only once in their last six meetings have both teams scored in the same match.
• Tight midfield battles and strong defensive organization point to another low-scoring encounter.

Tarma Preview

After a turbulent run of form, Tarma comes into this match with a recent record that raises questions about their momentum. Their last outing, a 2-3 defeat at home to high-flying Cienciano, showcased both resilience and defensive frailty. With just two wins in their last ten matches this year and only one victory across the last month, Tarma’s challenge remains turning possession into sustained attacking threat against the division’s stronger sides. Notably, Jordan Guivin has provided a spark in midfield, but the lack of clinical finishing persists, underscored by recent shot conversion struggles.

Tarma possible starting eleven

Alianza Lima Preview

Alianza Lima approaches this clash on the back of an unexpected 0-1 home defeat to Universitario de Deportes, but their broader form is reassuring for their fans. With six wins from nine in the Apertura, Guede’s men have demonstrated defensive stability and efficiency in the final third. Key contributors such as Paolo Guerrero, Erick Castillo, and Jairo Vélez offer both veteran poise and direct penetration, ensuring the team can unlock compact defenses when patient build-up is required. Their versatility in attack is complemented by a composed midfield, typified by Esteban Pavez and Jesús Castillo. The recovery after setbacks has been a theme for this side, as they typically bounce back with assertive displays.

Alianza Lima possible starting eleven

The Verdict

On behalf of the TipsGG expert team, our main pick is for Alianza Lima to triumph in this intriguing Apertura clash. The prediction is grounded in their sustained tactical discipline, recent display of defensive solidity, and a more effective attacking unit spearheaded by Castillo and Vélez. We project a 54 percent win probability for Alianza Lima, based on our AI prediction engine’s readings of recent form, squad depth, and advanced statistics. Tarma’s home advantage is not to be dismissed lightly, but unless their inefficiencies in converting opportunities are addressed, they remain at a disadvantage against the league’s upper echelon.

How to watch Tarma vs Alianza Lima

When?
14 April 2026, kick-off time: 22:15 CEST

Where?
Estadio Union Tarma, Tarma, Peru
How to watch: {streaming options}.
Favorite: Alianza Lima

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