Liam Duckstein
This is a Group A decider in the UEFA Women’s World Cup Qualification League A. Sweden host Italy at Brann Stadion in Bergen on June 9, and the stakes could not be higher for both sides. Sweden sit third on seven points, two behind Italy in second, and a win here would put serious pressure on the qualification picture. The fascinating detail: these two sides already met in this same group campaign, and Sweden claimed a narrow 1-0 victory. Italy come into this rematch with momentum, winning their last match 3-0 against Serbia, while Sweden lost their most recent game 1-2 to Denmark.
Johanna Kaneryd is the name to watch for Sweden. She provided the only goal in their last outing and brings directness in wide areas that can cause real problems for any backline. For Italy, Cristiana Girelli led the attack with seven shots in the previous match, a remarkable number that shows how aggressively Italy look to press the issue in the final third.
Hot stat: Italy scored six goals against Serbia earlier in this campaign. Their attacking output across recent matches stands at 24 total shots in the last game alone, which is the standout figure from either camp heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Women’s World Cup Qualification UEFA 2026, League A Group A |
| 🏟 Venue: | Brann Stadion, Bergen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Sweden W vs Italy W Prediction
We predict Italy to score in this match. Their attacking output has been far superior across recent games, and Sweden have shown defensive fragility, losing twice to Denmark by the same 1-2 scoreline. Italy’s 10-2 goal tally in the group is the most telling number in this section. Sweden managed just four goals in five group matches.
The head-to-head record gives Sweden a slight edge, but Italy arrive with better form and more firepower. Sweden’s 3-5-1-1 shape gives them defensive compactness, yet Denmark exposed it twice. We predict Italy to win or at minimum find the net, making Both Teams to Score a reasonable angle, with Sweden capable of a set-piece moment through their structured build-up.
Sweden average 13 total fouls per game in recent matches compared to Italy’s five. That physical edge from Sweden might disrupt Italy’s rhythm, but Italy’s pass accuracy and volume suggest they will find ways through. Sweden’s ball retention is notably lower, with 355 accurate passes to Italy’s 452, which points to Italy controlling larger portions of the match.
Corners are another area where Sweden lead with 12 in their last match versus Italy’s seven. That set-piece threat is real and worth factoring into a total corners bet. We predict over 8.5 corners in this match given Sweden’s wing-heavy 3-5-1-1 system and Italy’s tendency to press high.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Italy W to Win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Sweden’s group campaign has been inconsistent. They beat Serbia 1-0 and drew with them 0-0, but lost twice to Denmark and now face Italy needing a result. Their 3-5-1-1 formation provides width through the wing-backs but limits their attacking options centrally. In their last match against Denmark, they managed 17 shots but only scored once, showing a conversion problem that has plagued them throughout this qualification phase. The squad relies heavily on collective structure rather than individual brilliance, and their form over the past 30 days reads as one loss from one game.
Italy have been the more convincing side in this group when facing lower-ranked opposition. Their 6-0 and 3-0 wins over Serbia demonstrate genuine attacking depth, and their 0-0 draws against Denmark show they can also defend when required. In their most recent match, Arianna Caruso scored and Giada Greggi assisted, showing that the goals are spread across the squad rather than dependent on one player. Coach Andrea Soncin’s 4-2-3-1 system gives them balance, and their low foul count of five in the last game suggests they play a disciplined, technical brand of football.
🚨 Check out our dedicated Sweden W vs Italy W stats page for more info.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Sweden W the Favourite
- Moneyline Sweden W 1.62-1.66 | Italy W 4.33-4.60
- Draw 3.37-3.55
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Sweden’s odds around 1.62-1.66 reflect their home advantage and head-to-head record, but the bookmakers’ implied probability of 54% feels generous given Sweden’s recent form. Italy at 4.33-4.60 looks like the more interesting side of the market. Their attacking numbers, low foul count, and sharper form over the last 30 days suggest the gap between these sides is smaller than the odds imply. To be honest, Italy winning outright at those prices carries real value for a side that has scored 10 group goals and arrives in better shape.
Possible Starting Lineups
Sweden W Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jennifer Falk
- DF: Amanda Ilestedt, Smilla Holmberg, Amanda Nildén, Hanna Lundkvist
- MF: Julia Zigiotti Olme, Filippa Angeldal, Hanna Bennison
- FW: Johanna Kaneryd, Stina Blackstenius, Fridolina Rolfö
Peter Gerhardsson is expected to set up in his familiar 3-5-1-1, with Jennifer Falk behind a back three anchored by Amanda Ilestedt, who contributes both defensively and in build-up with 62 passes in the last game. Julia Zigiotti Olme is the engine in midfield with 69 passes and two interceptions in the previous match. Johanna Kaneryd is the most likely source of a Sweden goal, having scored in the last outing and showing the directness this team needs in the final third.
Italy W Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Francesca Durante
- DF: Cecilia Salvai, Lisa Boattin, Martina Lenzini, Lucia Di Guglielmo
- MF: Giada Greggi, Arianna Caruso, Manuela Giugliano, Giulia Dragoni
- FW: Cristiana Girelli, Sofia Cantore
Andrea Soncin should line up in a 4-2-3-1 with Francesca Durante in goal. Manuela Giugliano, who played 90 minutes with 60 passes in the last match, is the creative hub and the player most likely to dictate Italy’s tempo. Cristiana Girelli led all players with seven shots in the previous game and remains the attacking focal point. Arianna Caruso is another player to watch closely, having scored in the last match while completing 68 passes at high accuracy.
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Italy W. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
This match carries significant weight in the group standings, and both sides know exactly what they need. Sweden must win to keep their qualification hopes alive. Italy need at least a draw to protect second place. That pressure tends to produce cautious early football, but Italy’s attacking instincts and superior shot volume suggest they will not sit back.
Sweden’s home record in this group is mixed at best. They beat Serbia at home but lost to Denmark. Italy arrive as a side with genuine momentum and the best goal difference in the group outside of Denmark. We predict Italy to score at least once, and given Sweden’s need to attack, both teams finding the net is a real possibility.
We predict a 1-1 draw or a narrow Italy win. The value sits with Italy on the moneyline at 4.33-4.60, and Both Teams to Score at Yes is our strongest recommendation for this fixture. Sweden will push forward given the circumstances, which opens space for Italy’s counter-attacking quality through Girelli and Cantore.
