Levi Rothermund
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Sweden sit top of League B Group 4 after a 2-1 win over Romania, while Poland only managed a goalless draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the opener. There’s a curious subplot here too: these two sides met just months ago in the World Cup qualification playoff final, where Sweden edged a 3-2 thriller. Poland will want revenge, but honestly, the underlying numbers don’t paint a comfortable picture for Jan Urban’s men right now.
Watch Alexander Isak closely. He scored and fired three shots in Sweden’s last outing, and his movement between the lines could stretch Poland’s back four all night. On the other side, Robert Lewandowski remains Poland’s outlet even when the service dries up, and one half-chance from him is usually enough.
Hot stat: Poland picked up 18 fouls and three yellow cards across their last five matches, while Sweden committed just six fouls and collected zero cards in the same stretch. That discipline gap could matter if this game gets physical near either box.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League B Group 4 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Sweden vs Poland prediction
We lean toward Sweden here, and not just because the bookmakers agree at close to 1.90. Poland’s recent form reads two losses, two draws and only one win from five, a stretch that includes that Bosnia stalemate where they failed to score. Sweden, meanwhile, have scored in four of their last five and Isak looks sharp again after the Romania win.
Sweden’s passing game is noticeably cleaner. They completed 588 passes in their last outing compared to Poland’s 435, and their shape under Graham Potter keeps possession higher up the pitch. Poland compensate with more shot volume (14 attempts to Sweden’s 11) but that hasn’t translated into goals lately, and their foul count suggests a team chasing the ball rather than dictating with it. That combination, tidy Swedish buildup against a scrappier Polish approach, tilts this toward a narrow home win, maybe with goals at both ends given Poland’s habit of finding the net against modest opposition.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Sweden to win by exactly one goal (Correct Score 2-1) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Sweden’s win over Romania was built on two clinical finishes from Isak and Gyökeres, and Victor Lindelöf anchored a defense that, while still shipping the odd sloppy goal this year, held firm when it mattered. Before that they’d lost 0-3 to France and 1-5 to Netherlands, so the Romania result reads more like a reset than a trend confirmed. In our preview of Sweden vs Romania we suggested a tight, high scoring win for Sweden around 2-1 with both sides finding the net, and the 2-1 final score delivered exactly that.
Poland’s 0-0 with Bosnia was low on quality from either side, and Lewandowski barely got a sniff. Before that draw they’d conceded twice against Nigeria in a 2-2 and lost 0-2 to Ukraine, a run that shows real fragility at the back. In our preview of Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina we called Poland to win with goals at both ends, but the 0-0 scoreline went firmly against that call.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Sweden | Poland |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Sweden vs Poland stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Sweden the favourite
- Moneyline Sweden 1.91 | Poland 3.75
- Draw 3.70
Markets have settled close to what the bookmakers’ own model suggests, roughly 49% Sweden, 25% draw, 26% Poland. That gap feels fair given Poland’s shaky recent form, though it’s not a landslide either. We think there’s a touch of value on Sweden at home considering how much sharper their attack has looked compared to Poland’s misfiring one.
Poland. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Sweden possible starting eleven
- GK: Viktor Johansson
- DF: Victor Lindelöf, Carl Starfelt, Emil Holm, Hjalmar Ekdal
- MF: Lucas Bergvall, Yasin Ayari, Sebastian Nanasi, Elliot Stroud
- FW: Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres
Potter likes the 4-4-1-1 shape and both Isak and Gyökeres played every minute of the Romania game, so expect them paired again up top. Bergvall and Ayari control the middle, and Lindelöf’s experience should settle a defense that’s leaked goals in bunches this year.
Poland possible starting eleven
- GK: Marcin Bułka
- DF: Jan Bednarek, Matty Cash, Kacper Potulski, Jakub Kiwior
- MF: Sebastian Szymański, Piotr Zieliński, Nicola Zalewski, Bartosz Ślisz
- FW: Robert Lewandowski, Michał Skóraś
Urban’s 4-4-2 leans on Zieliński and Szymański to create, but neither managed much against Bosnia. Lewandowski still leads the line and one moment of quality from him could change the whole complexion of this match.
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Sweden. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We’re backing Sweden to win this one, probably by a single goal margin given how their last meeting went. Poland’s defense hasn’t looked settled all year, and Sweden’s front two have the sharpness to punish that. Maybe a 2-1 finish suits both sides’ recent patterns, with Poland grabbing something late the way they often do against sides they respect. The TipsGG punters team leans Sweden win, over 2.5 goals, and both teams to score as our core combination for this fixture.
Read also: Sweden vs Poland Predicted Line-ups and Team News: Both Expected XIs
Read also: Sweden vs Poland Head-to-Head: Record, Stats and Form as of 26 Sep 2026
