Liam Duckstein
Sweden host Greece at Brann Stadion in Bergen on June 4, in what looks like a tricky friendly for Graham Potter’s side. Sweden come into this off the back of a 1-3 loss to Norway, while Greece arrive having drawn both of their most recent outings without scoring. The interesting angle here is that Greece, under Ivan Jovanovic, have shown a tendency to grind out low-scoring games, and Sweden’s recent form has been inconsistent despite a decent record on paper across 2026.
Two players to keep an eye on are Sweden’s attacking options from their 4-4-2 setup, where wide midfielders often carry the goal threat, and Greece’s central defensive presence in their 3-5-2, which has kept things tight even in difficult away fixtures. Greece’s wing-backs in particular deserve attention, as the 3-5-2 gives them license to push forward and create width against a flat Swedish back four.
Hot stat: Greece have failed to score in three of their last five matches, drawing 0-0 against Hungary and Belarus, losing 0-1 to Paraguay, and conceding a 1-3 loss to Denmark. Their attack has been muted, and that pattern is hard to ignore heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Friendly 2026, June Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Brann Stadion, Bergen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Sweden vs Greece Prediction
Sweden are the bookmakers’ favorites at roughly 47% implied probability, and we agree with that lean. Playing at home, even if Brann Stadion in Bergen is not their usual base, gives them a psychological edge. Potter’s side beat Poland 3-2 and Ukraine 3-1 earlier in 2026, showing they can produce goals when the conditions are right. The 1-3 loss to Norway is a concern, but Norway are a strong side and that result should not define expectations here.
Greece have not won any of their last two matches and have scored just once in their last four games. Their 3-5-2 system is built to be compact and hard to break down, but it also limits their offensive output significantly. Against a Swedish side that pressed aggressively against Ukraine and Poland, the Greeks may struggle to find space on the counter.
We predict a Sweden win with a low-to-moderate goal total. The most value sits in backing Sweden on the moneyline at around 2.00-2.05, which reflects the genuine uncertainty of a friendly setting without overpaying. Greece’s defensive structure means this is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair, and Under 2.5 goals carries real weight given the recent form of both sides.
Greece average a high number of fouls in their defensive block system, which generates free kicks in dangerous areas for Sweden. Sweden’s set-piece delivery in their 4-4-2 can be a real weapon, and that could be the decisive factor if open play stays tight. Greece’s yellow card accumulation in recent matches also suggests they will be tested physically, which suits Sweden’s direct style.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Sweden to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Sweden’s 2026 record reads two wins from three matches, with victories over Poland (3-2) and Ukraine (3-1) before the Norway loss. The Poland win was particularly encouraging, coming against a side that had recently beaten several mid-tier European opponents. The Ukraine result showed clinical finishing from Potter’s setup. The Norway game, however, exposed Sweden’s defensive vulnerabilities, conceding three times in what was a comfortable win for their Scandinavian neighbors.
Their longer form is mixed. The sequence wwlwwwdlllldwwl shows stretches of poor results sandwiched between better runs. Sweden are not a side that dominates possession or presses relentlessly for 90 minutes. They are more reactive, and against a team like Greece that is content to sit deep, they will need patience and set-piece quality to break the deadlock.
Greece’s form paints a different picture. Their 2026 record is zero wins from two matches, with a 0-0 draw against Hungary and a 0-1 loss to Paraguay. Before that, they managed a 0-0 draw against Belarus and a 3-2 win over Scotland, which remains their most eye-catching result of the year. The Denmark loss (1-3) showed they can be exposed when opponents press high and move the ball quickly.
The form sequence wlwlwwwwlllwdld suggests Greece go through cycles of decent results followed by poor patches, and they appear to be in one of those down cycles right now. Jovanovic’s 3-5-2 is defensively organized but functionally limited in attack, and with no goals in their last two games, confidence in the final third will be low heading into Bergen.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
There is no recent head-to-head data available between Sweden and Greece prior to this fixture. The table below reflects the upcoming match context based on bookmaker expectations.
| Statistic | Sweden | Greece |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | – | – |
| Total shots | – | – |
| Free kicks | – | – |
| Corner kicks | – | – |
| Total fouls | – | – |
| Pass accuracy (%) | – | – |
| Interceptions | – | – |
| Offsides | – | – |
🚨Check out our dedicated Sweden vs Greece stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Sweden the Favourite
- Moneyline Sweden 2.05 | Greece 3.48
- Draw 3.58
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds across major bookmakers are fairly consistent. Sweden at 2.05 is fair value given the home advantage and their stronger attacking output this year. Greece at 3.48 reflects the reality that they have not won in their last two and have struggled to score. The draw at 3.58 is interesting but not something we would chase here, given Sweden’s ability to score against mid-level opposition. To be honest, the 2.05 on Sweden feels like the cleaner bet of the available options, with Greece’s blanks in recent matches making the “No” on BTTS a strong secondary consideration.
Greece. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Sweden Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Robin Olsen
- DF: Emil Krafth, Victor Lindelof, Isak Hien, Ludwig Augustinsson
- MF: Mattias Svanberg, Albin Ekdal, Viktor Claesson, Jesper Karlsson
- FW: Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres
Sweden’s preferred 4-4-2 gives them a solid defensive base and two genuine goal threats up front. Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres are the players to watch in this match. Both are capable of finishing chances created from wide areas, and against a Greece side that may leave gaps between their defensive line and wing-backs, there will be opportunities. Jesper Karlsson on the left should test Greece’s right wing-back repeatedly. Robin Olsen provides experience and command in goal.
Greece Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Odysseas Vlachodimos
- DF: Konstantinos Mavropanos, Panagiotis Retsos, Sokratis
- MF: Giorgos Masouras, Manos Siopis, Kostas Fortounis, Petros Mantalos, Tasos Bakasetas
- FW: Anastasios Douvikas, Fotis Ioannidis
Greece’s 3-5-2 relies on the three-man backline staying compact and the wing-backs tracking back quickly. Odysseas Vlachodimos will be busy between the posts if Sweden apply early pressure. Kostas Fortounis remains Greece’s most creative central presence, and his ability to link midfield to attack will be key if Greece want to threaten on the counter. Tasos Bakasetas as a deep-lying playmaker keeps possession ticking but Greece will need more urgency in forward areas than they have shown recently.
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Sweden. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Sweden should edge this one. Their home setting, stronger attacking record in 2026, and the presence of Isak and Gyokeres up front give them a meaningful edge over a Greek side that has gone cold in front of goal. Greece’s 3-5-2 will make life difficult, but Sweden’s set-piece delivery and wide play in a 4-4-2 are well-suited to unpicking that kind of defensive structure.
We predict a 2-0 or 1-0 win for Sweden. Greece’s inability to score in recent outings, combined with Sweden’s threat from wide positions and through their two strikers, points toward a clean sheet for the hosts. Under 2.5 goals and “No” on BTTS are our secondary tips, with Sweden to win to nil as the standout value play at likely odds above 2.50 depending on your bookmaker.
