Sutjeska vs Kairat Almaty Prediction: 15 July 2026 UEFA Champions League

Sutjeska host Kairat Almaty at Stadion Gradski in Niksic for the second leg of their UEFA Champions League 2026/27 First Qualifying Round tie. The Montenegrin side must overturn a 1-2 deficit from the first leg, making this a near must-win fixture on home soil. Kairat arrive with confidence, having already beaten Sutjeska once in this tie and carrying a strong run of form over the past month. The Kazakhstani side are ranked significantly higher in world club rankings and the bookmakers strongly back them to progress.

Two players stand out as ones to watch. For Kairat, Brazilian defender Lucas Áfrico has scored twice across the last two matches, making him a genuine threat from defensive positions. For Sutjeska, striker Marko Mrvaljevic is the home side’s main attacking threat, also registering two goals in recent outings, and will need to deliver if the hosts are to turn this tie around.

A hot stat worth flagging: Kairat Almaty registered 32 total shots across their last five matches compared to Sutjeska’s 14, almost double the attacking output. That difference in shot volume tells a clear story about the gap between these two sides right now.

Sutjeska vs Kairat Almaty Prediction

Kairat Almaty are the clear pick to advance here. They won the first leg 2-1 away from home, and now Sutjeska must chase the game. The Montenegrin side has lost all four of their last 30-day fixtures, while Kairat have won three of their last four with one draw. The gulf in recent form is significant.

Sutjeska’s 4-2-3-1 setup may offer some defensive structure, but they lack the consistency to contain a Kairat side playing with momentum. Kairat’s 4-3-3 presses high and generates volume in attack. The home side’s yellow card count across recent matches (six compared to Kairat’s two) suggests they foul more and are under pressure when opponents attack with pace, which plays into Kairat’s hands. Kairat’s corner count of 14 across five matches versus Sutjeska’s two is another indicator of territorial dominance. We predict Kairat to control large portions of this match and secure the result they need to advance.

Team Analysis

Sutjeska have been in poor shape lately. They have lost all four matches played in the last 30 days, including the 1-2 defeat to Kairat in the first leg and a 1-2 loss to Sarajevo before that. Earlier results against Mornar (0-1) and Borac Banja Luka (0-1) only add to the concern. Looking further back, they did show a better run of results earlier in the year, but their current slide is hard to ignore. The squad lacks depth going forward, and their goals tally of just two across the last five matches underlines the attacking problem. Coach Milorad Pekovic needs a response from his side, but the numbers do not point in that direction.

Kairat Almaty’s recent run tells a very different story. They thrashed Okzhetpes 5-0 just days after winning the first leg against Sutjeska, which shows the depth and quality Rafael Urazbakhtin has at his disposal. Before that, they beat Kyzylzhar 3-0 and drew 1-1 with Atyrau. Their only blemish in recent weeks is a 1-1 draw with Ulytau back in late May. Four goals scored and 32 shots taken across the last five matches show an attack that is functioning well. The team’s low yellow card count also suggests they play with discipline, which tends to be an advantage in European knockout football.

🚨Check out our dedicated Sutjeska vs Kairat Almaty stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Kairat Almaty the Favourite

• Moneyline Sutjeska 4.52 | Kairat Almaty 1.69
• Draw 3.75
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The odds reflect the broader picture accurately. Kairat at around 1.65 to 1.72 across bookmakers represent fair value given their form, the first-leg result, and Sutjeska’s current losing streak. Sutjeska at 4.20 to 4.75 carry some appeal for risk-tolerant bettors if the home crowd can spark a reaction, but to be honest, the underlying stats do not support backing the home side. The draw odds around 3.75 to 4.10 are interesting only if you believe Sutjeska can level the aggregate but not push further, which feels unlikely given the attacking output data.

Possible Starting Lineups

Sutjeska Possible Starting Eleven

Sutjeska are likely to line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 shape. Vladan Giljen is the clear first-choice goalkeeper, having featured in both recent matches. Andrija Raznatovic and Anto Babic provide the defensive backbone. In midfield, Aleksa Golubovic brings some energy but carries two yellow cards already, which makes him a booking risk in a high-pressure second leg. Deni Hočko has two assists in recent matches and will be key in linking midfield to attack. Up front, Marko Mrvaljevic is the one to watch, with two goals in five matches making him the most dangerous player in this Sutjeska squad.

Kairat Almaty Possible Starting Eleven

Kairat look set to deploy their 4-3-3. Temirlan Anarbekov is the established first-choice goalkeeper. The back four features Lucas Áfrico, who is perhaps the most dangerous player on the pitch given his two goals from defensive positions, alongside Luis Mata and the experienced Aleksandr Shirobokov and Erkin Tapalov. Jaakko Oksanen and Aleksandr Mrynskiy have both played full minutes across the recent matches and form a solid midfield base. Up front, Ismail Bekbolat has four assists in two games, which makes him one of the most creative players in this tie. Jorge Gabriel Costa Monteiro leads the line and has been consistently involved in attacking play.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Kairat Almaty are the standout pick in this match. They lead the tie, they are in form, and they are the more dangerous attacking side by a clear margin. Sutjeska have not won in their last four matches and will need to score at least once to have any chance of advancing, which makes this a game where both teams to score feels likely. Kairat’s 32 shots and 14 corners across five matches compared to Sutjeska’s 14 shots and two corners tells you everything about where the pressure will come from.

We predict a Kairat Almaty win, with goals at both ends. The Kazakhstani side should have enough quality to see off Sutjeska and book their place in the next round. Back Kairat to win and both teams to score as the headline bet for this fixture.

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