Liam Duckstein
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Sunderland welcome Hull City to the Stadium of Light in Round 3 of the EFL Cup 2026/27. Régis Le Bris’s side enter this fixture as clear favourites, backed by strong home form and a squad that has been building momentum over the past month. What makes this tie particularly interesting is that Hull have beaten Sunderland in their two most recent competitive meetings, including a 1-0 win at the Stadium of Light in the EFL Championship last season, so there is a genuine upset narrative in play here.
Enzo Le Fée has been one of Sunderland’s standout performers in recent weeks, contributing a goal and showing strong passing output through the middle. For Hull, Semi Ajayi has added an unexpected attacking threat from defence, netting once in his last three appearances while also averaging solid interception numbers at the back.
A notable stat from Hull’s recent matches: goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis has recorded 9 saves across four games, which tells you a lot about how much defensive work Hull’s backline has had to absorb against high-quality opposition.
| 🏆 Tournament: | EFL Cup 2026/27, Round 3 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadium of Light, Sunderland |
| 🗓️ Date: | 08.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Sunderland vs Hull Prediction
Sunderland are the right side to back here. They have won three of their last five matches, their home record is strong, and the EFL Cup context suits a side that will want to progress without overextending key players. Hull, by contrast, have drawn three of their last six games and carry a tendency to sit deep and absorb pressure, which is reflected in their goalkeeper’s heavy workload.
The best value bet is a Sunderland win. The bookmakers price them at roughly 56% probability, and the underlying stats support that. Sunderland have outshot Hull in recent form windows, and Hull’s pass accuracy of just 78% in their last five matches suggests they will struggle to build sustained attacking play against a well-organised Sunderland midfield anchored by Granit Xhaka’s 189 passes and 4 interceptions.
Hull commit fouls at a similar rate to Sunderland (34 vs 33 over five matches), but they have accumulated 9 yellow cards to Sunderland’s 5. In a cup tie where discipline matters, that edge goes to the home side. Hull’s defensive shape is disciplined, but their lack of a free-kick goal in recent games (0 from 35 free kicks) limits their set-piece threat significantly.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Sunderland to win & Under 2.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Sunderland have been in decent form over the past 30 days, picking up three wins, one draw, and one loss from five matches. Their most recent game ended 1-1 against Brentford, a solid result against a Premier League side rated significantly higher. Before that, they beat Fulham 1-0, which shows they can grind out wins against quality opposition. Their two losses during a slightly longer run came against Ipswich (1-2) and in an earlier stretch, but the general trajectory has been positive. In their last five matches combined, they have scored 7 goals and kept the ball moving with 1,331 passes at a pass accuracy of around 83%.
Hull have been more inconsistent. They drew 0-0 with Aston Villa most recently, a result that flatters them slightly given Villa’s quality, but also confirms Hull’s ability to stay compact and frustrate. Before that, they beat Coventry 1-0 and drew 1-1 with Stoke City, while their most eye-catching result was a 2-0 win over Manchester United. Over five matches, Hull have scored 4 goals and attempted 43 shots, which is actually more than Sunderland’s 37, though their pass accuracy sits lower at around 78%. Sergej Jakirovic sets his team up to be hard to beat rather than dominant in possession.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Sunderland | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Sunderland vs Hull stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Sunderland the favourite
- Moneyline Sunderland 1.65 | Hull 4.60
- Draw 3.65
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds on Sunderland at around 1.65-1.68 reflect a side that the market trusts at home, but the price is not generous. The draw at 3.65 is worth noting given Hull’s tendency to share points in recent games. Hull at 4.60 to 5.00 is a long price, but their head-to-head record against Sunderland (two wins from the last two competitive meetings) means the upset value is not zero. We prefer Sunderland to win, and the odds available represent fair rather than exceptional value.
Possible Starting Lineups
Sunderland possible starting eleven
- GK: Robin Roefs
- DF: Trai Hume, Dan Ballard, Reinildo Isnard Mandava, Nordi Mukiele
- MF: Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Enzo Le Fée, Chris Rigg
- FW: Wilson Isidor, Nilson Angulo
Sunderland look set to line up in their preferred 4-2-3-1 shape. Granit Xhaka anchors the midfield with authority, completing the most passes of any outfield player in the squad over recent matches. Enzo Le Fée operates just ahead of him and has been the team’s creative engine. Wilson Isidor leads the line with pace and has chipped in with a goal recently. Régis Le Bris may rotate some squad options given the cup context, but the core of this XI has looked settled.
Hull possible starting eleven
- GK: Konstantinos Tzolakis
- DF: John Egan, Semi Ajayi, Ryan Giles, Lucas Herrington
- MF: Lucas Gourna-Douath, Regan Slater, Jens Hjertø-Dahl, Elliot Stroud
- FW: Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi
Hull are likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1 as well. Konstantinos Tzolakis has been the busiest goalkeeper in this dataset, making 9 saves in four matches, and he will need to be alert again at the Stadium of Light. John Egan and Semi Ajayi form a physical centre-back partnership. Mohamed Belloumi has been the most active forward in terms of interceptions (9 over four games), which tells you he presses hard and tracks back. Jakirovic will likely ask his team to remain compact and look to hit on the counter.
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Hull. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a narrow Sunderland win in a low-scoring match. Hull have the defensive organization to frustrate, and their recent head-to-head record gives them credibility, but Sunderland’s home advantage, superior pass accuracy, and the quality of players like Xhaka and Le Fée in central areas should be enough to make the difference.
Hull’s 9 yellow cards in five matches also points to a team that struggles when pressed, and Sunderland press well at home. To be honest, the most likely scenario here is a 1-0 or 2-0 home win, with Hull creating limited clear-cut chances. The corners market is also worth attention: both teams have been generating double-digit corner counts recently, so over 8.5 corners offers genuine appeal at standard prices.
Our pick is Sunderland to win and under 2.5 goals total.
