Liam Duckstein
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Sunderland welcome Dinamo Zagreb to the Stadium of Light for a League Phase clash that looks straightforward on paper but hides some real cracks underneath. The hosts sit ninth in the table with seven points from three games, yet their domestic form has gone sideways lately with just two wins from their last seven outings. Dinamo arrive 18th with four points and a mixed recent run, but they travel with a striker who has been scoring at nearly a goal a game. That contrast between table position and current form is what makes this fixture worth a closer look rather than a straight favourite tick.
Two names stand out heading into this one. Granit Xhaka continues to dictate tempo for Sunderland from deep, racking up the most passes of anyone in either squad over the last five matches, and his range still sets the pace for the Black Cats build-up play. On the other side, Dion Drena Beljo has been nothing short of a problem for opposition defenses, scoring five goals in his last five appearances for Dinamo while also picking up two yellow cards for his aggressive style up front.
Hot stat: Beljo has found the net in basically every recent outing for Dinamo Zagreb, a goal-a-game return across his last five matches that makes him statistically the most dangerous attacker on the pitch this Thursday, ahead of any Sunderland player.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadium of Light, Sunderland |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction
We predict goals at both ends here rather than a comfortable home shutout. Sunderland have conceded in four of their last five matches and just lost 1-3 at Coventry, which tells us their defensive structure is not currently trustworthy, home advantage or not. Dinamo have scored ten goals across their own last five games, and with Beljo in this kind of scoring streak, the visitors carry enough bite to punish any defensive lapse.
Looking at the underlying numbers, Dinamo have actually out-shot Sunderland 88 to 67 over their last five matches and hold a cleaner pass accuracy rate too. Sunderland foul more and have collected the same number of cards as Dinamo despite playing a tighter, more conservative shape in the 4-1-4-1. Dinamo’s 4-2-3-1 gives them extra bodies in central areas, which should help them control spells of the game even away from home. To be honest, backing Sunderland on the moneyline at such short odds feels like poor value given how shaky they have looked defensively in recent weeks.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Dion Drena Beljo to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Sunderland’s last outing ended in a 1-3 defeat to Coventry, continuing a stretch where they have won only two of their last seven matches. Before that they beat Brentford 3-2, drew 0-0 with Leeds and 1-1 with Lech Poznan, and lost 0-2 at Bournemouth. The pattern here is clear: Sunderland can score against weaker opposition but their back line keeps leaking goals against anyone with genuine attacking quality, and Coventry exposed that again just days ago. In our preview of Coventry vs Sunderland we leaned toward the visitors edging a tight relegation six-pointer alongside goals at both ends, and the 1-3 final score went against the win call even though both sides did find the net.
Dinamo Zagreb’s most recent match brought a narrow 0-1 loss to Rudes, snapping a run that had otherwise looked promising. Before that they won 2-1 against Rijeka, lost 2-4 to Nijmegen in Europe, then smashed Slaven Belupo 5-1 and beat Anderlecht 1-0. Four wins in five overall shows a squad capable of putting goals together quickly, and Beljo’s five goals across those matches have carried most of that output personally. In our preview of Dinamo Zagreb vs Nijmegen we backed the hosts for a routine win with a possible clean sheet, and the 2-4 result that followed went firmly against that call, a reminder that this Dinamo side can be breached just as easily as it attacks.
🚨Check out our dedicated Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Sunderland the favourite
- Moneyline Sunderland 1.46 | Dinamo Zagreb 6.30
- Draw 4.60
Bookmakers rate Sunderland around 65% likely to win this one, with Dinamo given only 15%. Those numbers feel a touch generous toward the hosts given how porous Sunderland have looked defensively over the last month. The draw price sitting near 4.60 looks more interesting than it first appears, and Dinamo’s price past 6.00 feels worth a small each-way interest purely off Beljo’s current scoring streak, even if a straight away win remains the less likely outcome.
Possible Starting Lineups
Sunderland possible starting eleven
- GK: Robin Roefs
- DF: Luke O’Nien, Omar Alderete, Dayann Methalie, Reinildo Isnard Mandava
- MF: Granit Xhaka, Chris Rigg, Enzo Le Fée, Habib Diarra, Noah Sadiki
- FW: Malick Fofana
Régis Le Bris looks likely to stick with the 4-1-4-1 that has become his go-to shape, with Xhaka screening the back four and allowing Le Fée more license to push forward. Fofana remains the main outlet up top and his five appearances with a goal to his name make him the clear pick as lone striker here.
Dinamo Zagreb possible starting eleven
- GK: Dominik Kotarski
- DF: Niko Galešić, Sergi Dominguez, Bruno Goda, Moris Valinčić
- MF: Josip Mišić, Lukas Kacavenda, Luka Stojkovic, Miha Zajc, Mislav Oršić
- FW: Dion Drena Beljo
Mario Kovacevic should keep faith with the 4-2-3-1 that has served the squad well recently, pairing Mišić and Kacavenda to shield the back line and freeing Oršić and Zajc to support Beljo in behind the ball. Beljo himself is the obvious player to watch, given his finishing record this term.
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Dinamo Zagreb. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a tighter contest than the odds suggest, with Sunderland edging it but not without conceding at least once along the way. The hosts’ shaky defensive numbers over their last five matches, combined with Beljo’s current scoring form, point toward both teams finding the net. Our punters desk leans Sunderland Double Chance paired with BTTS Yes, backing home advantage without ignoring the clear threat Dinamo carry on the counter. Perhaps the safer single pick for value hunters is simply BTTS Yes paired with Over 2.5 goals, given how both sides have performed defensively this autumn.
