SudTirol vs Bari Prediction: 22.05.2026 Serie B 2025/26 Relegation

SudTirol and Bari face off in the decisive Serie B relegation clash at Stadio Druso. This fixture carries extra tension since the first leg ended goalless, leaving everything open for the return. The bookmakers see SudTirol as favorites, but both teams have plenty of question marks. Emanuele Pecorino, SudTirol’s forward, and Bari’s Gabriele Moncini should catch the eye. Each has the potential to tip the tie with a single moment. The “hot stat”? SudTirol have only scored one goal in their last five games, while Bari have managed five in the same period. This contrast in attacking output shapes expectations for a tight contest.

SudTirol vs Bari prediction

We predict a narrow win for SudTirol. Their home advantage and bookmakers’ confidence lean that way, but recent form clouds the picture. Bari have been more productive in attack but less disciplined defensively. With both sides managing a 0-0 in the first leg, the pressure mounts. We expect SudTirol to edge this, exploiting Bari’s occasional lapses and capitalizing on set pieces. The match will likely feature few goals, given both teams’ recent struggles to convert chances. SudTirol’s more careful approach and Bari’s tendency for yellow cards and fouls could slow the tempo, leading to a low-scoring affair. Bari’s 13 yellow cards in their last five games highlight their aggressive style, which may cost them, especially away from home. SudTirol, by contrast, play a more composed passing game, and their 66.8% pass accuracy is marginally better than Bari’s. We predict a single-goal margin, possibly 1-0.

Team Analysis

SudTirol’s last five games underline a worrying trend. They haven’t won any, suffering three defeats and drawing two. Their latest outing was the first leg against Bari, which finished 0-0. SudTirol struggled for attacking rhythm, managing only a handful of shots on target and rarely troubling Bari’s keeper. In previous games, defensive issues were evident—conceding six goals to Spezia and three to Mantova. Possession was more controlled at home, but the final third lacked quality. The midfield, especially Fabian Tait, tries to dictate play but transitions break down too easily.

Bari come in with better recent form: two wins, two losses, and a draw from their last five. They also played SudTirol last, keeping things tight but showing more forward intent. Bari’s most recent wins over Catanzaro and Entella featured sharper attacking moves, with Moncini finding the net twice in that span. Bari’s defensive lapses show in losses to Venezia and Avellino, both by multiple-goal margins. Still, their pressing game and ability to force errors in midfield remain strengths. Bari’s formation—3-5-2—gives them width but exposes them centrally at times.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated SudTirol vs Bari stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: SudTirol the favourite

• Moneyline SudTirol 1.97 | Bari 4.10
• Draw 3.42
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.30 | Under 2.5 1.55
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.05 | No 1.65

SudTirol’s odds reflect their home advantage and marginally steadier approach in tight matches. Bari’s longer odds show both the away factor and their inconsistency. The Under 2.5 price is short—bookmakers see little attacking risk from either side. Both teams to score is seen as less likely, echoing the stats. These prices make sense; SudTirol’s chance creation is limited but their defensive lapses are less frequent at home. Bari’s edge comes from their ability to break quickly, but they lack consistency over 90 minutes.

Possible Starting Lineups

SudTirol possible starting eleven

This lineup relies on a 4-3-1-2, with Adamonis trusted in goal after starting all recent games. The back four is the most settled line for SudTirol, with Pietrangeli and Veseli anchoring. The midfield three’s balance is key—Tait orchestrates while Molina and Casiraghi add verticality. Pecorino leads the line, needing better service; Merkaj offers movement. Casiraghi’s creativity could break the deadlock if Bari allow him space.

Bari possible starting eleven

Bari’s 3-5-2 structure gives them options on the flanks with Dorval and Mane, while Maggiore and Braunöder give bite centrally. Cerofolini keeps his spot in goal. Mantovani, Odenthal, and Nikolaou are the mainstays in defense. Moncini and Piscopo have the edge up front—both have scored recently and can exploit SudTirol’s occasional slow starts. Bari’s lineup can switch quickly from defense to attack, but discipline remains a concern as several midfielders are prone to bookings.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict SudTirol to win narrowly, likely 1-0, based on their strong home focus and Bari’s recent discipline problems. SudTirol’s defense should hold, while Bari’s aggression could lead to costly mistakes. We expect a low-scoring game, with a premium on set pieces and limited clear-cut chances. The match is unlikely to become open unless a team scores early, so under 2.5 goals is the strongest tip. Our data points to SudTirol edging out a tense contest and securing their Serie B status.

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