SudTirol vs Bari Prediction: 13.05.2025 Serie B 2024/25 Preview

As the Serie B 2024/25 regular season winds towards its climax, SudTirol welcome Bari to the Stadio Druso in Bozen on the 13th of May. Both sides are separated by just two points in the mid-table dogfight—there’s genuine tension and the whiff of opportunity in the air. While Bari’s pedigree and higher overall ranking shine through, SudTirol’s home form and spirited recent run make this confrontation a particularly intriguing affair.

Keep an eye on SudTirol’s Gabriele Gori, whose recent clinical finishing has galvanised their attack, and Bari’s Kevin Lasagna, always a menace in transition and capable of changing the game’s tempo with his direct running.

The talking point? SudTirol have scored nine goals in their last five outings—an attacking flourish that puts their recent patchy defensive record firmly in the shade.

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SudTirol vs Bari prediction

After poring over the tactical numbers and current run-ins, the best value prediction here is for a low-scoring, tightly contested affair with Bari edging the match. Bari bring a marginally superior squad depth and attacking variety, reflected in their higher league ranking and bookmakers’ edge at 46% win probability. Still, SudTirol’s home edge and recent offensive vim prevent this from becoming a foregone conclusion.

Expect both teams to set up in familiar shapes—3-4-2-1—with a scraping battle in midfield and plenty of tactical fouls: both average 13 yellow cards across their last five matches. Ball retention sees Bari holding 1168 passes with a 56% completion rate (recent five games), while SudTirol manage 569 passes with 74% accuracy, indicating SudTirol’s more direct, risk-reward style clipped with quick verticals and a high pressing line. Corners are another flashpoint, as both teams have racked up 20+ in their last five games, suggesting set-pieces might be crucial.

Team Analysis

SudTirol’s recent matches have featured a blend of gutsy comebacks and occasional defensive lapses. Their entertaining 3-3 draw against promotion-chasing Pisa showcased real attacking variety, with Gori delivering twice inside the box and the team converting 50 shots over their last five fixtures. Gabriele Gori and Silvio Merkaj provide dangerous movement in the final third, but concerns endure over transition defence, highlighted by conceding three to Pisa and another two to relegation-threatened Salernitana. Still, their 2-0 result over Juve Stabia signals that on home turf, SudTirol remain a stubborn nut to crack.

Bari, under Moreno Longo, have endured inconsistency—evident in only two wins from their last five and just four wins across 17 league fixtures. Their most recent 1-3 home tumble against Cittadella raised eyebrows, especially after an uplifting 1-0 result over Pisa. The squad’s ball progression is more possession-oriented, with players like Mehdi Dorval and Andrea Oliveri central to build-up play. In attack, Kevin Lasagna and Nicholas Bonfanti have carried the load, but creativity from midfield has been fitful at best, making them vulnerable when pressed high—leading to as many as 27 interceptions conceded in recent matches.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full SudTirol vs Bari stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bari the favourite

With Bari at 2.00 and SudTirol drifting to 3.75, the bookmakers are banking on Bari’s technical quality and away strength to prove decisive. However, the high pricing on SudTirol and the relatively short draw odds reflect just how finely poised this fixture is—neither team can afford mistakes with so much play-off positioning on the line.

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Possible Starting Lineups

SudTirol possible starting eleven

SudTirol are likely to persist with the 3-4-2-1 formation that has allowed for defensive solidity and quick breaks. Marius Adamonis remains steadfast between the posts, shielded by a back three led by the experienced Masiello. Gabriele Gori stands out as the attacking focal point, with Silvio Merkaj providing vital support as a second striker. Versatility in midfield and the energetic Niklas Pyyhtia will be key to both breaking lines and tracking Bari’s runs.

Bari possible starting eleven

For Bari, the same 3-4-2-1 structure is expected. Boris Radunović commands the backline, with Vicari and Mantovani as defensive anchors. In midfield, the interplay between Dorval and Oliveri will determine their tempo. Up top, the duo of Kevin Lasagna and Nicholas Bonfanti is likely to start, both bringing mobility, pressing, and an eye for the half-chance. Watch for Andrea Favilli as a potential bench-impact option if the match tightens in the latter stages.

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The Verdict

This clash is delicately balanced, with SudTirol punching above their statistical weight and Bari’s collective resolve a constant threat. While Bari should have just enough to nick it, SudTirol have the momentum and home support to keep things on a knife-edge throughout. My main pick is Bari Draw No Bet, reflecting both their edge in squad quality and the risk SudTirol pose on their day. Expect a tactical battle defined by the midfield, with a healthy dose of drama right until the dying moments! The winner takes a big step towards playoff consolidation, but neither can afford to let concentration slip at this crucial juncture.

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