Rafael Nogueira
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Senegal visit Sudan in a Group J qualifier that carries real weight for the group table. Senegal sit top with seven points from three matches, while Sudan occupy fourth place on three points and need results. The sides met on 12.11.2026, when Senegal won 4-1, and that result shapes how both coaches approach this rematch. Patrick Vieira will look to control possession again, while Kwesi Appiah must find a way to limit Senegal’s attacking volume.
Two players stand out. Nicolas Jackson has scored two goals and taken ten shots in the last two matches, making him the main danger for Senegal. For Sudan, Mohamed Abuaagla has scored twice and completed six interceptions, so he carries the responsibility of linking defence and attack.
Hot stat: Senegal scored eight goals in their latest five matches, while Sudan managed only two in the same span.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Africa Cup of Nations 2027, Qualifier Group J |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Sudan vs Senegal prediction
We predict a Senegal win, and the best value sits in the Asian handicap market. Senegal at -1.5 pays more than the straight moneyline at 1.27 and still fits the gap in quality. Senegal scored four goals against Sudan last time out and have produced more than two goals in most of their recent outings. Sudan have conceded heavily in their own qualifiers, including a 4-1 loss to Mozambique, so the margin should favour Senegal by two or more.
Senegal play with more control. They made 1,016 passes across their latest five matches against 518 for Sudan, which points to sustained possession and territory. Senegal committed 20 fouls in that sample compared with 38 for Sudan, so Senegal press cleanly while Sudan rely on defensive tackling. Sudan picked up four yellow cards in the same period, the same total as Senegal, so discipline should not decide the game. Senegal’s 32 shots and 14 corner kicks suggest a team that forces the opponent back, which should keep the match tilted toward their goal.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Senegal to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Sudan recent form
Sudan have won only one of their last five matches in 2026, and their form across the last 15 games shows three wins, two draws and ten defeats. The most recent result was the 4-1 loss to Senegal, where Sudan found the net once but conceded four times. Before that, a 4-1 defeat to Mozambique exposed the same weakness at the back. Sudan won 1-0 against Ethiopia, which shows they can hold a lead, but they have struggled to keep a clean sheet. In our preview of Senegal vs Sudan we called a Senegal win, and the 4-1 result delivered it.
Senegal recent form
Senegal have won eight of their last 15 matches and lost only five, which places them among the most consistent sides in the group. They beat Sudan 4-1 in their most recent meeting, and they followed it with a 1-0 win over Comoros. Senegal’s scoring has come from several sources, including Nicolas Jackson and Boulaye Dia, who each scored twice in the recent sample. Senegal also won 1-0 against Ethiopia and drew 1-1 with Mozambique, so they have shown they can grind out results without dominating every minute. In our preview of Senegal vs Sudan we called a Senegal win, and the 4-1 result delivered it.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Sudan | Senegal |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 14 |
The table shows total goals across six played meetings, with Senegal winning the 2025 Round of 16 and the 2026 qualifier.
Check out our dedicated Sudan vs Senegal stats page for more info.
Sudan. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Senegal the favourite
- Moneyline Sudan 9.00-11.30 | Senegal 1.22-1.30
- Draw 4.33-4.90
Bookmakers make Senegal a 71 percent favourite, with a 20 percent chance of a draw and 9 percent for Sudan. The price on Senegal is short, so the moneyline offers little value. The draw at around 4.50 looks overpriced given Senegal’s control in recent matches, so we avoid it. The handicap market gives a better route into the result.
Possible Starting Lineups
Sudan possible starting eleven
- GK: Mohamed Mustafa
- DF: Mustafa Karshom, Ahmed Yousif Tabanja, Yaser Awad Boshara
- MF: Mohamed Abuaagla, Abdelrazig Omer, Salaheldin Adil Ahmed Alhassan, Walieldin Khidir
- FW: Mohamed Eisa, Aamir Abdallah Yunis, Musa Hussein Ali
We expect Sudan to line up in their popular 3-4-2-1 shape. Mohamed Abuaagla and Abdelrazig Omer have played every minute across the last two matches, so they anchor the midfield. Mohamed Eisa should lead the line with support from Aamir Abdallah Yunis. Sudan will need Abuaagla to link play and cover the wide areas when Senegal push forward.
Senegal possible starting eleven
- GK: Yehvann Diouf
- DF: Kalidou Koulibaly, Moussa Niakhaté, Sadibou Sane, El Hadji Malick Diouf
- MF: Lamine Camara, Dion Lopy
- FW: Nicolas Jackson, Iliman Ndiaye, Boulaye Dia, Ibrahim Mbaye
Senegal should start in a 4-2-3-1 shape, with Iliman Ndiaye operating just behind Nicolas Jackson. Kalidou Koulibaly and Moussa Niakhaté have each played every minute of the recent matches, which gives the back line stability. Lamine Camara offers the midfield control that drives Senegal’s possession game. Nicolas Jackson remains the main threat, while Boulaye Dia and Ibrahim Mbaye add pace on the flanks.
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Senegal. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
To be honest, the result looks clear, and we predict Senegal to win with a comfortable margin. Senegal have the stronger recent output, with eight goals across five matches and a superior record in the group. Sudan have struggled to score and concede too often, which makes a Senegal clean sheet a realistic outcome. Our pick is Senegal -1.5 for the best value, with Over 2.5 goals as the supporting market. Perhaps Sudan can frustrate them for a spell, but the quality gap should show by the second half.
