Sudan vs Iraq Prediction: 06.12.2025 FIFA Arab Cup 2025 Preview

The group stage of the FIFA Arab Cup 2025 heats up as Sudan face off against Iraq in Doha at Stadium 974. With both sides eager to make a statement in Group D, this fixture brings together two diverse footballing philosophies—Sudan’s organized resilience versus Iraq’s dynamic attacking play. The context is compelling: Iraq, already sitting atop the group after a narrow win over Bahrain, look to cement their position, while Sudan aim for their first victory following a tightly contested draw with Algeria. Noteworthy is the tactical evolution seen in recent matches, especially with Iraq’s increasing efficiency in front of goal, suggesting a chess-like duel rather than a frantic shoot-out.

For Iraq, striker Mohanad Ali stands out, having netted 2 goals from 3 recent appearances, while midfielder Amir Al-Ammari provides stability and transitional threat in the middle of the park. Sudan’s Walieldin Khidir, with commendable work rate and high pass completion in their last fixture, will be critical in orchestrating play and attempting to break Iraq’s momentum.

A “hot stat”: Iraq have fired an impressive 30 shots in their last five matches, underscoring their attacking appetite, in stark contrast to Sudan’s more conservative 10 shots in the same span.

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Sudan vs Iraq prediction

Considering both teams’ current forms, betting odds, and recent performances, the best value prediction for this matchup is an Iraq win. Iraq’s 67% win rate in the last 30 days and their 2-1 win over Bahrain in the group opener highlight their consistency and firepower. Sudan, meanwhile, have secured only 2 wins from 17 matches this year (12% win rate) and registered a goalless draw in their opening game. Iraq’s superior shots, corner tally, and effective pressing all point towards their sustained dominance in both control and final-third action.

Looking deeper, both sides deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, yet their approaches differ—Sudan focus on preserving shape and minimizing risks (10 fouls and just 1 yellow card over their last 5 matches), whereas Iraq are notably more aggressive, as reflected by 6 yellow cards and 34 fouls over the same span. This could see Sudan aiming to frustrate Iraq and unleash quick counters, but Iraq’s overall possession play, higher pass completion, and relentless attack should tilt the contest in their favor.

Team Analysis

Sudan’s recent performances have been marked by defensive discipline and low-scoring draws, evident from their 0-0 result against a high-ranked Algeria. Their previous four games reflect one win, one loss, and two draws. Against Algeria, Sudan struggled to create clear chances (zero goals, 10 shots), but showed organization in defense, limiting Algeria to a stalemate. In their earlier match versus Lebanon, Sudan showed attacking promise with a 2-1 win, but failed to replicate this form against Oman and Oman U23, managing only a point after two goalless matches.

Iraq’s recent games showcase sharper offense and adaptability. Their opening match saw them defeat Bahrain 2-1 with clinical finishing and better control in midfield. In preparation matches, Iraq edged out UAE (2-1) and drew (1-1), displaying both their ability to attack and fall back into defensive organization when required. With 5 goals in their last 5 encounters and 12 corners earned, Iraq’s proactive style is paying dividends, and the side now exudes confidence under coach Graham Arnold.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Sudan vs Iraq stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Iraq the favourite

• Moneyline Sudan 5.20 | Iraq 1.65
• Draw 3.50
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.77
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.17 | No 1.69

Iraq’s pre-game odds of 1.65 clearly indicate bookmaker confidence in their potential, supported by their recent win streak and superior squad depth. Sudan’s odds at 5.20 signal both their underdog status and their struggle to convert chances, making a draw or upset look unlikely. The under 2.5 goals at 1.77 represents Iraq’s efficiency but also Sudan’s capacities as spoilers in stalemates.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

Possible Starting Lineups

Sudan possible starting eleven

Sudan are likely to stick with their favored 4-2-3-1 formation, prioritizing compactness in defense with Mohamed Alnour Adam Saeed as a steady presence between the sticks. Key players to watch remain Walieldin Khidir for distribution in midfield and Yaser Awad Boshara for defensive grit. Expect Sudan to set up defensively, inviting Iraq to break them down.

Iraq possible starting eleven

Graham Arnold’s Iraq will also go with the trusted 4-2-3-1, blending experience and youth. Jalal Hassan brings assurance in goal; Mohanad Ali and Aymen Hussein spearhead the attack with proven efficiency; Amir Al-Ammari links midfield to forwards seamlessly. The formation suits Iraq’s approach—dominate possession and unleash creative runs down the flanks.

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My take on the Match

All analysis points to a focused Iraq side with superior attacking metrics and recent competitive edge. My main pick is Iraq to win, and a strong case can be made for a handicap bet given Sudan’s struggles in front of goal and Iraq’s penchant for starting games quickly. Iraq’s midfield superiority—both in ball recovery and chance creation—could overwhelm Sudan, especially if the latter fall behind early. Sudan’s defense will be resilient, but Iraq’s multi-pronged approach, led by Mohanad Ali and supported by Amir Al-Ammari, should eventually be decisive.

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