Liam Duckstein
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Sturm Graz welcome Celje to Liebenau sitting just outside the League Phase cutoff, while the Slovenian visitors arrive rooted near the foot of the 36-team table with a single point from three games. Both clubs need a lift here, but the gap in current trajectory looks wide. Celje have managed only two goals across their three European outings so far, and that drought looks like the central theme of this fixture.
Keep an eye on Oumar Diakité for the hosts. The midfielder has scored five goals in his last five appearances, a remarkable return for a player operating from deep positions, and he looks like Sturm Graz’s most dangerous weapon regardless of scoreline context. On the Celje side, Blaž Kramer carries their attacking hopes, having found the net in his most recent outing and logging the most minutes of any forward in their rotation.
Hot stat: Oumar Diakité’s five goals in five matches for Sturm Graz stand out as the single most striking number in either side’s recent run, especially given his team has only scored once and conceded three times in the League Phase itself. Celje, by contrast, have been held scoreless in two of their last three European fixtures, a pattern that should worry Zoran Zeljkovic heading into Graz.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction
We predict Sturm Graz to win this one, and comfortably. The bookmakers already price them as heavy favourites at around 1.53, and the underlying numbers back that figure up. Sturm Graz racked up 12 goals and 27 corners across their last five matches, while Celje managed just two goals and two corners across the same sample. That gulf in attacking output is too large to bet against.
Style-wise, Sturm Graz dominate the ball and the stat sheet: 1413 passes compared to Celje’s 515 in the same five-match window, along with far higher shot and interception counts. Celje do pick up fewer cards and commit fewer fouls on paper, but that largely reflects a team that sees less of the ball and spends more time defending deep rather than a disciplined pressing unit. Expect Sturm Graz to control territory, work the channels repeatedly, and create enough separate chances that a clean sheet for Celje feels unlikely.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Oumar Diakité to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Sturm Graz’s last five results have been a mixed bag: two wins, two draws, and a loss, with their most recent match ending 1-1 against Wolfsberger. That draw followed a 2-3 defeat to Austria Lustenau, suggesting some fragility defensively even as their attack keeps producing goals through individuals like Diakité and Simon Seidl. Playing at home in Liebenau should help settle them back into a more controlled rhythm, and we expect a return to winning ways here rather than another slip.
Celje’s most recent result was a 4-0 win over Nafta, a confidence boost on paper, but one that came outside continental competition against weaker opposition. Their European form tells a different story: a scoreless draw with Maribor-level resistance was never really tested, and the 2-2 draw with Salzburg remains their best result in the League Phase. In our preview of Celje vs Salzburg we backed the visitors to win by a single goal with goals under 2.5 and no for both teams to score, and the eventual 2-2 draw went against that call on every count. Celje showed more fight than expected that night, but their overall scoring struggles in Europe remain the bigger pattern, and we see little reason to trust them finding the net consistently in Graz.
🚨Check out our dedicated Sturm Graz vs Celje stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Sturm Graz the favourite
- Moneyline Sturm Graz 1.53 | Celje 5.50
- Draw 4.40
The market leaves little doubt here. Odds around 1.53 on Sturm Graz translate to roughly 62% implied probability, matching the bookmakers’ own published split almost exactly. Celje’s price near 5.50 reflects a side that has won none of its last three European games and scored only twice in that stretch. We see no value in backing the underdog or the draw given how one-sided the recent attacking numbers look.
Possible Starting Lineups
Sturm Graz possible starting eleven
- GK: Ammar Helac
- DF: Paul Koller, Joshua Quarshie, Luis Balbo, Petar Petrović
- MF: Jon Gorenc Stanković, Simon Seidl, Luca Weinhandl, Jacob Peter Hödl, Oumar Diakité
- FW: Belmin Beganovic
Sturm Graz should line up in their usual 4-2-3-1, with Ammar Helac continuing between the posts after starting all five recent matches. Koller and Quarshie anchor a settled back four, while the midfield five built around Stanković and Seidl gives Diakité license to push forward into scoring positions, exactly where he has found success lately. Beganovic leads the line as the focal point for crosses and cutbacks.
Celje possible starting eleven
- GK: Žan Luk Leban
- DF: Artemijus Tutyskinas, Pijus Sirvys, Žan Žužek
- MF: Mark Zabukovnik, Milot Avdyli, Mario Kvesić, Darko Hrka
- FW: Benjamin Verbič, Veton Tusha, Blaž Kramer
Expect Celje to set up in a 3-4-2-1 shape designed to stay compact and limit space between the lines. Leban takes the gloves off the back of a clean recent outing, while Kramer leads the attack supported by Verbič and Tusha, the two players most likely to combine for a rare scoring chance. The back three and busy midfield four will need a near-perfect shift defensively to keep Sturm Graz quiet.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Celje. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Sturm Graz should get the job done at home against a Celje side that has struggled to score goals all season in Europe. The hosts’ attacking numbers from their last five matches, twelve goals compared to Celje’s two, make a strong case for backing both a home win and an over 2.5 total. Perhaps the only caution is Sturm Graz’s own defensive wobbles lately, but even that points toward an open game rather than a routine shutout. To be honest, this looks like one of the clearer calls on the Europa League card this week, and our punters team is leaning firmly toward a home win paired with goals at both ends being unnecessary for the bet to land.
