Liam Duckstein
The League One Playoffs reach a decisive stage as Stockport County hosts Stevenage at Edgeley Park on 13 May 2026. The bookmakers side with Stockport, but both teams arrive with identical win rates in their last 7 games, adding a layer of suspense. These sides have already met twice this month, with Stockport clinching a narrow 1-0 win most recently. Louie Barry stands out as a game-changer for Stockport with three goals in his last six appearances, while Stevenage’s Daniel Kemp consistently delivers attacking threat and creativity, tallying one goal and one assist in his last six. The battle in midfield could swing the outcome either way.
Hot stat: In the last five games, Stockport County has fired an impressive 93 total shots, nearly double Stevenage’s 54, underlining their high attacking output.
| 🏆 Tournament: | League One 2025/26 Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Edgeley Park, Stockport |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Stockport County vs Stevenage prediction
We predict Stockport County will claim another narrow victory at home. The best value is backing Stockport County on the moneyline, given their stronger home performance, superior shot volume, and more creative attack. The team’s 50% win rate this year at Edgeley Park, combined with a recent 1-0 head-to-head success, gives them the edge.
Both teams play with a disciplined edge. Stockport, under Dave Challinor, averages 12.6 fouls and 2 yellow cards per match in their last five, showing some bite but rarely crossing the line—no red cards in recent games. Stevenage, managed by Alex Revell, also keeps it tidy with 1.4 yellow cards per game and slightly fewer fouls. Stockport’s high shot count, passing accuracy at 81%, and consistent set piece threat (46 corners in last 5) suggest sustained pressure. Stevenage prefers a compact 4-2-3-1, leans on counter-attacks, and will rely on defensive structure, but their lack of cutting edge in attack is worrying. This match projects as a tactical contest, with Stockport’s attacking volume being decisive.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Stockport County to win and under 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Stockport County’s recent games point to steady improvement and growing confidence. In their last match, they edged Stevenage 1-0 at home, showing sharpness in transition and efficiency in finishing. Louie Barry’s form has been key, supported by midfield engine Oliver Norwood (2 assists in last 6). Their earlier 3-1 win over Peterborough highlights the squad’s offensive threat and ability to break down weaker defenses, but lapses against Port Vale and Mansfield signal vulnerability under pressure.
Stevenage struggled in their most recent outing, falling 0-1 to Stockport County away. Their playstyle remains pragmatic, often setting up deep and absorbing pressure, then springing counters. Daniel Kemp offers flashes of inspiration, but the forward line lacks bite, as shown by only five goals across their last five matches. Their 1-0 win over Wigan suggests potential for grinding out results, though consistency remains an issue.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Stockport County | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 9 | 5 |
| Total shots | 93 | 54 |
| Corner kicks | 46 | 21 |
| Total fouls | 63 | 73 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 81 | 62 |
| Interceptions | 46 | 47 |
| Offsides | 14 | 13 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Stockport County vs Stevenage stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Stockport County the favourite
- Moneyline Stockport County 1.87 | Stevenage 4.25
- Draw 3.47
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.78
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.05 | No 1.75
Stockport County’s clear favoritism is justified. Bookmakers price them at around 1.87, reflecting superior form and home advantage. Stevenage’s odds drift above 4.00, showing little faith in an upset. The market leans towards a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals at 1.78 and both teams not to score at 1.75. We see strong value in combining Stockport to win with under 2.5 goals, given recent results and both teams’ defensive approaches.
Possible Starting Lineups
Stockport County possible starting eleven
- GK: Ben Hinchliffe
- DF: Ethan Pye, Josh Cogley, Oliver Norwood, Roman Dixon
- MF: Ben Osborn, Odin Bailey, Lewis Fiorini, Jack Diamond
- FW: Louie Barry, Malik Mothersille
This lineup features Stockport’s most reliable performers from the recent run. Ben Hinchliffe starts in goal with a steady defense built around Pye and Cogley. Norwood anchors midfield, flanked by Osborn and Bailey, while Barry’s pace and Mothersille’s link-up play offer a threat up front. The 4-4-2 formation should allow for flexibility, maximizing their wide play and set-piece strength. Watch for Louie Barry’s incisive runs and Osborn’s late surges from midfield.
Stevenage possible starting eleven
- GK: Filip Marshall
- DF: Carl Piergianni, Dan Butler, Saxon Earley, Charlie Goode
- MF: Harvey White, Louis Thompson, Jordan Roberts, Daniel Kemp, Jasper Pattenden
- FW: Jamie Reid
Stevenage likely sticks with a 4-2-3-1, focusing on a compact shape. Piergianni leads a resilient back line, while Kemp and Roberts inject creativity. Jamie Reid operates as the lone striker, expected to stretch Stockport’s defense. Filip Marshall’s shot-stopping will be tested. Thompson and White provide cover and work rate in midfield. Kemp remains the key to unlocking Stockport’s lines.
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Stevenage. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Stockport County to secure a narrow win. The team’s high shot count, superior pass accuracy, and effective set-piece routines are likely to break down Stevenage’s defense. Stevenage will sit deep, but recent attacking struggles and the inability to keep Stockport at bay in their last meeting suggest another low-scoring win for the hosts. Under 2.5 goals looks a safe pick, and Stockport’s win probability is backed by their recent consistency at Edgeley Park.
