Sport Recife vs Cuiaba Prediction: 28.07.2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

Sport Recife sit third in the Série B table with 25 points from 15 games, making Ilha do Retiro a genuine fortress in this campaign. Cuiaba arrive 15th with 17 points and a worrying run of form that includes just one win in their last four outings. The hosts carry a strong season-long win rate of 53%, compared to Cuiaba’s 19%, and the gap between these two sides in quality and confidence is hard to ignore. One stat worth flagging: Sport Recife have drawn three of their last four matches, so despite the form advantage, clean-cut wins have been harder to come by lately.

Midfielder Biel is the engine room for Sport Recife, contributing 1 goal and 2 assists across the last five matches while racking up 6 interceptions and logging 340 minutes, making him the most complete performer in midfield. For Cuiaba, defender Marlon stands out as the lone scorer in their recent run and brings consistent defensive work rate with 3 interceptions and 77 passes, making him a pivotal figure on both sides of the ball.

Hot stat: Sport Recife have scored 6 goals across their last five matches but have also conceded enough to draw three of those games, including a wild 3-3 with Botafogo SP and a 2-2 with Operario PR, pointing to a side that creates chances but leaves gaps at the back.

Sport Recife vs Cuiaba Prediction

Sport Recife are the clear favourite here. They hold home advantage, sit third in the table, and have a significantly better season-long record. Cuiaba have managed just 9 goals in 15 league matches, the second-lowest attacking output in the top half of the table, and their last four results include two losses and a draw. The only previous meeting this season ended 0-0, which introduces some caution around backing a high-scoring game.

Sport Recife average 11 yellow cards across their last five matches and commit 69 fouls, which is notably high. Cuiaba are somewhat cleaner with 59 fouls and 8 yellow cards, but both sides generate a fair number of set-piece situations. Sport Recife’s pass accuracy sits at 1317 out of 1582 attempts, showing a direct style that suits home conditions. Cuiaba are more conservative with 1409 passes but a lower accuracy of 1159, suggesting they struggle to build from the back under pressure. Cuiaba’s 27 corner kicks in five games is a genuinely high number and worth noting for corners markets.

We predict Sport Recife to win, but the draw remains a live option given the hosts’ recent tendency to drop points. The total goals market leans toward a modest output given Cuiaba’s muted attack and the 0-0 head-to-head earlier this season.

Team Analysis

Sport Recife have gone four matches without a win in the last 30 days, collecting three draws and one loss. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw with Goias, following a 2-2 draw against Operario PR the week before. Prior to that run, the team had been in strong form, stringing together multiple wins earlier in the season. Coach Gilmar Pozzo will be aware that the draw habit needs to break, especially at home where the crowd at Ilha do Retiro can be a genuine factor. Pedro Henrique Perotti has 1 goal in 4 appearances and 8 total shots, while Chrystian Barletta leads the attack with 2 goals from 3 games and 11 shots.

Cuiaba have lost two of their last four matches, with their only win coming against América MG, currently the second-bottom side in the division. Their most recent game was a 0-1 home defeat to Atletico Goianiense, continuing a run that includes a 0-2 loss to Juventude. Coach Eduardo Barros has struggled to unlock consistent attacking output, with the team scoring just 3 goals across five matches. The 2-2 draw with São Bernardo and the 2-0 win over CRB are the brightest results in that stretch. Rodrigo Antonio Rodrigues leads the attack with 6 shots in 4 games but is yet to score, which sums up Cuiaba’s finishing problems.

🚨Check out our dedicated Sport Recife vs Cuiaba stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Sport Recife the Favourite

• Moneyline Sport Recife 1.95 | Cuiaba 4.10
• Draw 3.18

The moneyline odds of around 1.95 for Sport Recife reflect the bookmakers’ 49% win probability, which aligns with the table position and home advantage but also accounts for their recent draw-heavy form. Cuiaba at 4.10 is an accurate reflection of their poor season win rate of 19%. The draw at 3.18 carries genuine value given that three of Sport Recife’s last four matches ended level, and the head-to-head earlier this year finished 0-0. We still lean toward a Sport Recife win, but the draw is not a throw-away option here.

Possible Starting Lineups

Sport Recife Possible Starting Eleven

Sport Recife are likely to line up in their preferred 4-2-3-1 shape. Thiago has been the consistent choice in goal across four of the last five matches. The back four of Andre Felipe, Benevenuto, Habraão Saraiva, and Madson Ferreira provides a solid base, with Benevenuto contributing a goal from centre-back. Biel is the standout name in midfield, and his combination with Zé Gabriel gives the team both creativity and defensive cover. Chrystian Barletta leads the line with 2 goals from 3 appearances and is the main goal threat to watch.

Cuiaba Possible Starting Eleven

Cuiaba’s 4-1-4-1 structure is likely to feature Marcelo Carne in goal, with João Basso and Alan Empereur as the more reliable defensive options based on minutes played. Raul Lô anchors the midfield with 7 interceptions across four matches, the highest in the squad, making him the key defensive midfielder. João Pedro Vilardi provides the creative link with 1 assist and 133 passes in four games. Marlon, the only outfield player to score in this recent run, drops into a deeper role but remains a set-piece threat from defender position.

🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

The Verdict

Sport Recife are the better team on paper and at home, but their recent results demand respect for the draw. Cuiaba’s attack has produced just 3 goals in five games, and their only win in that stretch came against the second-bottom side. The 0-0 head-to-head from earlier this Série B season is a relevant data point. We predict Sport Recife to win this match 1-0 or 2-0, with Cuiaba failing to score for the second time in three away fixtures. The corners market is also worth targeting, as Cuiaba have generated 27 corners in five games, and Sport Recife push forward aggressively at home, making over 9.5 corners a strong secondary play.

More useful links for football fans

• Gamble Responsibly
• Best Football Betting Websites
• How to Bet On Sports
• Sports Betting Glossary
• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG