Sport Recife vs Anapolis Prediction: 13.03.2026 Copa do Brasil

The Copa do Brasil never fails to deliver stories of ambition, resilience, and tactical intrigue qualities that will be on full display as Sport Recife clash with Anapolis at the iconic Ilha do Retiro. This third-round encounter offers a fascinating contrast: Sport Recife, buoyed by home advantage and recent form, face an Anapolis side eager to shake up the hierarchy and prove doubters wrong. Both managers, Roger Silva and Jeff Strasser, have quietly fine-tuned their squads for high-stakes cup nights such as this, setting up an encounter where the margins will be decided not only by star performers but the tactical nuances on display.

Keep an eye on Sport Recife’s Alexandre Lima, whose movement and pressing from the front have frequently unlocked stubborn defenses, and Anapolis’s Bruno Souza, whose directness down the flanks has been the catalyst for several recent upsets. The midfield battle will be pivotal, but do not underestimate set-piece specialists both sides have shown an ability to take advantage when concentration lapses.

Hot stat: Anapolis have recorded a noteworthy 68 total shots across their last five fixtures, underlining a bold attacking approach that could unsettle Sport Recife if left unchecked.

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Sport Recife vs Anapolis prediction

The bookmakers have installed Sport Recife as firm favorites (average 71% chance), and for good reason. Roger Silva’s squad have not tasted defeat in their last five outings, combining defensive discipline with precise attacking transitions evidenced by a 3-0 win in their most recent derby against Nautico. Statistically, Sport Recife’s home form and tactical consistency, typically operating in a 4-2-3-1, put them in commanding position.

Anapolis, while undeniably dynamic going forward with a whopping 68 shots in recent matches, have also shown defensive volatility their last six games yielding three wins, two losses, and a draw. If they concede the midfield battleground, the likes of Alexandre Lima and André Santos can capitalize.

Disciplinary records raise flags for both camps: 9 yellow cards for Recife, 11 for Anapolis over five games, highlighting a readiness to disrupt play but also a potential Achilles’ heel for either side, should the referee set a low threshold early on. Recife’s slightly lower recent goal tally (4) compared to Anapolis (9) suggests a controlled, patient approach, while Anapolis’s directness could result in an open second half.

Throw in set-piece effectiveness 23 corners for Sport Recife, 33 for Anapolis in the last five and we have all the ingredients for a game of calculated risk and occasional chaos.

Team Analysis

Sport Recife have found rhythm and solidity in their recent fixtures, particularly in their commanding 3-0 win against rivals Nautico where positional discipline and swift wing play set the tone. Despite being held to a draw in previous outings, such as against Desportiva Ferroviaria (0-0), their tactical structure rarely wavers, and their pressing game routinely forces turnovers high up the pitch. While their scoring rate has dipped, their defensive line remains highly organized, conceding just five goals in the last five matches. Set pieces, notably corners, continue to be an avenue of opportunity, with midfielders joining to add aerial threat.

Anapolis approach this encounter riding a wave of attacking confidence, exemplified by their recent 4-2 victory against Ouvirdorense. Goals have flowed freely 9 in five games and their aggressive pressing often translates into high-volume shot counts and set-pieces earned. Nonetheless, inconsistency creeps in, as reflected in a 0-2 reversal against the same Ouvirdorense and a draw against Vila Nova. High pressing sometimes leaves them vulnerable during quick transitions, and their disciplinary record hints at a willingness to risk tactical fouls to stem the tide. If the front three click, they can trouble even well-organized defenses.

🚨Read our full Sport Recife vs Anapolis stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Sport Recife the favourite

• Moneyline Sport Recife 1.34 | Anapolis 9.40
• Draw 4.90
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 2.00
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.15 | No 1.62

Given these odds, Sport Recife’s home advantage and higher win probability are clear, but savvy bettors should note Anapolis’s offensive output and their tendency to play fearlessly. The value here lies in combination markets home win with goals or both teams scoring. Anapolis’s odds reflect a long shot, but their attack ensures they won’t go quietly, especially if Recife overcommit. The draw is less attractive, given both sides’ recent urgency in play. Over 2.5 goals is well-priced given both teams’ corner/kick statistics and Anapolis’s attack-minded approach.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Sport Recife possible starting eleven

This selection reflects Roger Silva’s reliance on a settled back four anchored by Joao Victor’s aerial ability, with midfield dynamism from André Santos and Luis Felipe. Upfront, Alexandre Lima’s energy and Rodrigo Oliveira’s movement will be crucial. The 4-2-3-1 formation balances ball retention with width. Lima, in particular, looks well-placed to exploit spaces left by Anapolis’s pressing fullbacks.

Anapolis possible starting eleven

Head coach Jeff Strasser is expected to persist with the 4-2-3-1, hoping for longevity in midfield from Bruno Souza, who remains the team’s stand-out creator, and defensive solidity from Igor Costa. The front trio of Jonathan, Daniel Amorim, and Leo will be tasked with stretching Recife’s defense and converting half-chances; quick transitions are central to their plan.

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The Verdict

Expect a fiercely contested cup clash where the scoreline may not fully reflect the underlying battle. Sport Recife’s tactical clarity and home support tilt the tie their way look for them to control possession, spring quick attacks, and exploit Anapolis’s sometimes risky transitions. Anapolis’s attacking numbers are impressive, but in a knockout scenario, defensive concentration will be tested to the limit.

Main pick: Sport Recife -1.0 Asian Handicap. Their blend of discipline and attacking threat, especially at home, makes this the standout option. Should Anapolis get on the scoresheet, it will likely be through set-piece chaos or direct play. In the words of coach Roger Silva, “These cup ties are won by details and unity. We have both.” The message is clear: Recife’s focus is razor sharp.

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