Liam Duckstein
Spezia welcomes Venezia to Stadio Alberto Picco on May 1st in a clash with high stakes at both ends of the Serie B table. Venezia, sitting top with an imposing record, look to assert their dominance again after beating Spezia 2-0 in the reverse fixture. Spezia, on the other hand, find themselves in a relegation dogfight, desperate for points but struggling for consistency.
Mattia Valoti (Spezia) and Andrea Adorante (Venezia) stand out as players to watch. Valoti’s recent form, with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last three appearances, has been a rare highlight for Spezia. Adorante’s finishing, with 4 goals from his last 4 games, gives Venezia a reliable threat up front.
The hot stat: Venezia boast a remarkable 72% win rate this season, with just 4 losses in 36 league matches, underlining their status as outright promotion favourites.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie B 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia |
| 🗓️ Date: | 01.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:00 CEST |
Spezia vs Venezia prediction
We predict Venezia to win. The gap in quality, consistency, and confidence between these teams is stark. Venezia have lost only once in their last 10 games and their away record is among the best in the league. Spezia, by contrast, have picked up just one win in their last eight, shipping too many goals and lacking both defensive resilience and attacking sharpness.
Spezia’s style involves a three-at-the-back system, but defensive errors remain frequent. Their average of almost 16 fouls and nearly two yellow cards per game point to a combative but often reckless approach, and they have struggled against more organized teams. Venezia, meanwhile, keep possession far better (over 87% pass accuracy across their defense and midfield), control the tempo, and create chances with greater regularity. With fewer fouls and cards, they show more discipline, which might help them capitalize on set pieces and transitions. Expect Venezia to dominate the ball, limit Spezia’s opportunities, and convert their superior build-up into goals.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Venezia to win & Over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Spezia’s last outing ended in a heavy 2-4 home defeat to Catanzaro. Defensive vulnerabilities were on display, as Spezia conceded multiple goals for the fourth time in five matches. Their only recent bright spot was a 6-1 thrashing of SudTirol, but that result now looks like an anomaly rather than a turning point. Spezia’s inability to string together results, along with a tendency to lose focus after conceding, leaves them in real danger.
Venezia, in contrast, produced a clinical 2-0 home win over Empoli in their latest fixture. The team controlled possession, restricted their opponent to few clear-cut chances, and looked ruthless in transition. They have now scored at least twice in three of their last four games. Venezia’s defensive structure and discipline—only 7 yellow cards in the last five games—make them a balanced side, capable of grinding out results or pushing for more when needed.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Spezia | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 2 |
| Total shots | 7 | 11 |
| Free kicks | 12 | 14 |
| Corner kicks | 3 | 6 |
| Total fouls | 14 | 11 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 77 | 86 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 13 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Spezia vs Venezia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Venezia the favourite
- Moneyline Spezia 4.50 | Venezia 1.72
- Draw 3.95
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 1.95
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.75 | No 2.10
Venezia are strong favourites and the bookmakers’ numbers echo the form tables. Their price reflects top spot and away consistency, while Spezia’s long odds mirror their struggles. Over 2.5 goals is favoured, which aligns with the attacking intent of both teams and Spezia’s defensive frailties. Both teams to score is also likely, given Spezia’s need to attack at home and Venezia’s superior finishing.
Spezia. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Spezia possible starting eleven
- GK: Boris Radunović
- DF: Aleš Matějů, Petko Hristov, Giuseppe Aurelio
- MF: Filippo Bandinelli, Ádám Nagy, Leonardo Sernicola, Christian Comotto, Alessandro romano
- FW: Gianluca Lapadula, Mattia Valoti
This lineup sticks with the 3-5-2 that coach D’Angelo prefers. Radunović remains the first-choice keeper, with Matějů and Hristov tasked with stabilizing the back line. Aurelio offers support on the left. The midfield is anchored by Bandinelli and Sernicola, with Valoti as the dynamic advanced midfielder behind Lapadula. Valoti’s form and Lapadula’s experience are pivotal for any Spezia hopes. Expect high energy and a combative edge, though defensive gaps remain a concern.
Venezia possible starting eleven
- GK: Filip Stankovic
- DF: Michael Svoboda, Marin Šverko, Antoine Hainaut
- MF: Gianluca Busio, Issa Doumbia, Ridgeciano Haps, Enrique Pérez Muñoz, Nunzio Lella
- FW: Andrea Adorante, John Yeboah
Stroppa’s Venezia are settled in their 3-5-2 formation. Stankovic is secure in goal, with Svoboda, Šverko, and Hainaut forming a reliable defensive trio. Busio and Doumbia direct play in midfield, while Haps adds width and attacking drive. Adorante’s goal threat and Yeboah’s movement up front cause headaches for any defense. The balance in this lineup—discipline, pace, and technical skill—makes Venezia formidable.
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Venezia. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Venezia to take all three points. Their tactical organization, superior squad depth, and attacking threat should prove too much for a Spezia team that leaks goals and struggles for momentum. Expect goals at both ends, but Venezia’s composure and structure give them a distinct edge. Back Venezia to win, with a high-scoring match likely.
