Liam Duckstein
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South Sudan welcome Egypt for a Group B qualifier that looks lopsided on paper, but the numbers behind both squads tell a story worth a closer look. Egypt sit second in the group after a goalless start against Angola, while South Sudan already trail after a 1-2 defeat to Malawi. Perhaps the most interesting wrinkle here is how thin South Sudan’s recorded output has been lately, their aggregate shot and pass numbers from the last five matches read almost like a blank sheet, which says plenty about the gap in quality on show this week.
Omar Marmoush remains Egypt’s biggest attacking threat and the player most likely to unlock a stubborn South Sudanese backline. Emam Ashour’s work in midfield, both defensively and as a creative outlet, gives Hossam Hassan’s side control that South Sudan simply cannot match man for man.
Hot stat: Egypt fired five goals past Australia in one of their last five outings, while South Sudan’s own aggregate figures from their last five matches show zero shots and zero completed passes recorded, a gap that says everything about the level difference on show this weekend.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Africa Cup of Nations 2027, Qualifier Group B |
| 🗓️ Date: | 29.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
South Sudan vs Egypt prediction
We predict Egypt to win comfortably here, and the value angle we like is Egypt to win without conceding. South Sudan have shown almost nothing offensively across their recent games, drawing blanks against Djibouti and Syria, and their defense already leaked two goals to Malawi in the qualifier opener. Egypt, even with a shaky spell against Argentina and Australia, have tightened up defensively of late, keeping a clean sheet against Angola.
South Sudan’s discipline record shows a side that fouls often and struggles to keep the ball, which against Egypt’s passing patience, over 55% pass accuracy on individual defenders in recent games, should let the visitors dictate tempo throughout. Egypt’s 5-4-1 setup gives them extra bodies to press and win the ball back quickly, something South Sudan’s disjointed 4-2-3-1 has not handled well against stronger opposition this year.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Egypt to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
South Sudan arrive off the back of a 1-2 loss to Malawi in their qualifier opener, a game where they conceded twice and only found the net once late on. That result continued a pattern from their 2026 form, where wins have been rare and heavy losses, including a 0-1 defeat to Djibouti, have been more common than positive results. In our preview of Malawi vs South Sudan we backed the hosts to get the job done against a South Sudan side lacking confidence going forward, and the eventual 1-2 scoreline backed that call even though the match produced more goals than we anticipated.
Egypt opened their own campaign with a 0-0 draw against Angola, a result that looked frustrating given their attacking pedigree but showed a defense capable of holding firm under pressure. Before that qualifier, Egypt had been involved in high-scoring, unpredictable matches, a 5-3 win over Australia and a narrow 2-3 loss to Argentina among them, suggesting a team that can be exciting but occasionally careless at the back. In our preview of Egypt vs Angola we called for the Pharaohs to win while also conceding at least once, and the goalless draw went against that read entirely.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
South Sudan and Egypt have no recent competitive meetings on record between them, so there is no historical head-to-head data to draw from for this qualifier.
🚨Check out our dedicated South Sudan vs Egypt stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Egypt the favourite
- Moneyline South Sudan 13.65 | Egypt 1.20
- Draw 5.70
The odds leave no doubt about who the market considers the stronger side here. Egypt’s price sitting around 1.20 reflects the near 77% implied probability from bookmakers, and given South Sudan’s total lack of attacking output in recent fixtures, we see little reason to argue against that assessment. A South Sudan win at 13.65 looks tempting purely on price, but their form simply does not support backing an upset.
Possible Starting Lineups
South Sudan possible starting eleven
- GK: Majak Mawith
- DF: Benjamin Laku Lotelek
- MF: Jackson Dwang, Peter Chan
- FW: Valentino Kuach Yuel, Paul Jawa, Patrick Oleyo Jimmy Valentino, Keer Mangar Majak
South Sudan’s available data points to a squad built around a heavy front line, likely arranged in their usual 4-2-3-1. Paul Jawa and Valentino Kuach Yuel look set to lead the attacking line, though neither has produced a shot or a completed pass in the recorded stats from their last outing, which underlines how much they will need to improve to trouble Egypt’s back line.
Egypt possible starting eleven
- GK: Mostafa Shobeir
- DF: Ahmed Fatouh, Mohamed Hany, Ramy Rabia, Hossam Abdelmaguid, Karim Hafez
- MF: Emam Ashour, Mohanad Lashin, Mahmoud Saber, Ali Mahmoud
- FW: Omar Marmoush
Egypt’s preferred 5-4-1 shape gives them a compact defensive base with Ramy Rabia and Ahmed Fatouh both showing strong passing numbers from recent matches. Emam Ashour stands out in midfield with nine free kicks taken in his last appearance alone, while Marmoush leads the line alone up top, tasked with converting the chances Egypt’s numbers suggest they should create against a weaker opponent.
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South Sudan. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Egypt should have too much for South Sudan across the full ninety minutes. South Sudan’s defense has already shown cracks against Malawi, and their attack has offered almost nothing in recorded output over the last five matches. Egypt, even coming off a flat 0-0 draw with Angola, carry enough quality in Marmoush and Ashour to break down a side struggling for confidence at both ends of the pitch. We predict a comfortable Egypt win, most likely by two or three clear goals, with a clean sheet for the visitors well within reach given South Sudan’s toothless recent form.
