Levi Rothermund
Slaven Belupo host Paksi at Gradski Stadion in Koprivnica on July 16 in what looks like a fairly straightforward friendly on paper, but the form gap between these two sides makes this more interesting than the setting suggests. Slaven Belupo have won just once in their last four matches, losing the other three, while Paksi arrive with four wins from eight games in the same period and a generally more settled rhythm through preseason. Mario Gregurina’s side have shipped goals in every recent defeat, including a 3-1 loss to Sanfrecce Hiroshima and a 2-3 home reverse against Zalaegerszegi, which points to defensive fragility that György Bognár’s attackers could look to exploit.
Paksi’s 4-0 win over Hapoel Ramat Gan in their most recent outing is the standout result from either camp heading into this fixture. That kind of efficiency up front, combined with a clean sheet, signals Paksi are building momentum at the right time. On the Slaven side, keep an eye on whoever leads the line in Koprivnica, given the home side managed a 3-1 win over Csikszereda just days before losing to Sanfrecce, showing they can produce goals when the conditions align.
Hot stat: Paksi have scored 12 goals across their five friendly fixtures this July, conceding 8, giving them a goal involvement rate of 4 goals per game on average. That is the most prolific attacking output of either side in this match by a clear margin.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026, July Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Gradski Stadion, Koprivnica |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:30 CEST |
Slaven Belupo vs Paksi Prediction
Paksi are the better-performing side right now. They sit 81st in the July friendly standings with 7 points from five games, while Slaven Belupo sit 827th with just 3 points from four games and a goal difference of -2. The bookmakers reflect this, pricing Paksi as slight value at around 2.50 against a Slaven Belupo moneyline sitting at 2.25 to 2.34. We think the draw at 3.70-3.75 is overpriced given both teams have shown they can score, and a low-scoring stalemate feels unlikely based on recent patterns.
Paksi’s win over Osijek 4-0 and the 4-0 against Hapoel Ramat Gan show they can be ruthless against beatable opposition, which Slaven Belupo may well be in this context. Slaven did beat Csikszereda 3-1, so they carry a goal threat, but their defensive record across recent games is poor. A match with goals at both ends feels very plausible. Paksi to win with both teams scoring is our primary angle here.
In terms of playing style, the detail stats for individual matches are not available in granular form for this fixture, but the broader pattern of fouls and set-piece exposure tends to be elevated in preseason friendlies between Central European sides at this level. Slaven Belupo have conceded from open play in each of their three recent losses, suggesting their defensive shape is not yet tight. Paksi, by contrast, kept a clean sheet in their last outing, which may point to a more organized defensive block. Expect Paksi to be the more disciplined side in and out of possession, with Slaven likely to concede corners and free kicks in dangerous areas.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Paksi to win and both teams to score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Slaven Belupo come into this game having won just one of their last fifteen matches across all competition formats, losing ten and drawing four. That is a deeply concerning run for a side trying to build shape and confidence through preseason. Their most recent result, a 1-3 home loss to Sanfrecce Hiroshima, was particularly damaging, with the Croatian side unable to hold back a Japanese opponent ranked well above them. Prior to that, a 0-1 loss to Debrecen and a 2-3 loss to Zalaegerszegi underline the same problems: they can create but cannot hold a lead or keep a clean sheet.
The one bright spot was a 3-1 win over Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc on July 7, showing at least some attacking capability. Slaven Belupo sit 827th in the broader standings, and their year-long win rate of 25% from 28 matches reinforces that this is a side still searching for consistency under Mario Gregurina.
Paksi have been considerably more convincing. Their last five games include a 4-0 win over Hapoel Ramat Gan, a 4-0 demolition of Osijek, and a 3-3 draw with Maccabi Haifa that showed they can handle higher-quality opposition. The one blip was a 0-3 loss to Kozarmisleny SE, which was clearly an anomaly given the context, and a 1-2 defeat to Dundee. György Bognár’s side have won four of their last eight matches, drawn two, and lost two, with a 50% win rate over the last 30 days. They sit 81st in the standings with 7 points and a positive goal difference of +4 across five games this July.
Paksi’s year-long win rate of 39% from 28 matches is noticeably stronger than Slaven’s, and they carry a much better head of steam into this fixture.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have met once in the current International Club Friendly 2026 July phase, with the match ending 0-0. Beyond that single data point, no further historical head-to-head records are available in our system.
🚨Check out our dedicated Slaven Belupo vs Paksi stats page for more info.
Slaven Belupo. Source: Official Website
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Paksi the Favourite
- Moneyline Slaven Belupo 2.34 | Paksi 2.54
- Draw 3.75
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmaker average pegs Slaven Belupo at 40% and Paksi at 36%, with the draw at 24%. Honestly, we think Paksi are slightly undervalued at 2.50 given their recent form advantage. Slaven at 2.25-2.34 reflects home advantage, but their current run makes that price hard to back with confidence. The draw at 3.70-3.75 is maybe the least appealing option given how open both sides have been defensively. Paksi’s price is the most interesting in the market right now.
Possible Starting Lineups
No confirmed player data is available for either squad ahead of this fixture. Both Slaven Belupo and Paksi have not released lineup information through our data provider at this stage, so we are omitting projected elevens to avoid presenting inaccurate selections.
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Paksi. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think Paksi take this one. Their form over the past month is meaningfully better than Slaven Belupo’s, they have scored 12 goals in five July fixtures, and they arrive off a clean sheet against Hapoel Ramat Gan. Slaven have shown they can score, as the 3-1 win over Csikszereda confirms, but their defensive record in recent weeks makes it hard to see them keeping Paksi quiet for 90 minutes.
A Paksi win with goals at both ends is our preferred prediction. Slaven’s attacking players may find a way onto the scoresheet, but Paksi have the personnel and the momentum to come away with three points at Gradski Stadion. Over 2.5 goals looks well-supported by both teams’ recent output, and the corner market should be active given both sides’ tendency to attack from wide areas in these preseason settings.
- Paksi to win: best odds around 2.50
- Both teams to score: Yes
- Over 2.5 goals
- Over 7.5 corners
