Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction: 13.02.2026 1. HNL Preview

As the 2025/26 1. HNL season intensifies, Slaven Belupo and Lokomotiva Zagreb meet in a crucial mid-season clash at the Gradski Stadion in Koprivnica. Both teams sit mid-table and are separated by just one point, making this fixture pivotal for their European aspirations and long-term league ambitions. A notable subplot to watch here is that both clubs share an identical -6 goal difference, pointing to defensive vulnerabilities and attacking deficiencies that could shape the face of this encounter.

Among the many talented players set to impact this matchup, Slaven Belupo will rely on forward Ilija Nestorovski, whose ability to find space in the final third has been a rare spark for the hosts. Lokomotiva Zagreb, on the other hand, will hope for another influential performance from attacking full-back Marko Pajač, who has delivered two goals in his latest appearances—a strong indicator of his threat from set-pieces and open play.

One ‘hot stat’ stands out: Lokomotiva Zagreb have registered six goals across their last five matches, a significant upgrade over Slaven’s two, underlining a difference in clinical edge in front of goal coming into this contest.

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Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Zagreb prediction

The data points to a closely-fought contest, with both sides displaying inconsistent form but Lokomotiva Zagreb boasting a more potent attack, especially in recent matches. Slaven Belupo, though resilient at home, have scored only twice in their last five games and struggled to convert chances, ranking among the league’s lowest for total shots on target. Lokomotiva, meanwhile, enter with a solid winrate (57 percent over last seven games) and much better attacking efficiency, as evidenced by their six goals in the same period and strong performances away from home.

Both teams demonstrate aggressive intent: Slaven Belupo average 46 fouls in five recent matches and have accumulated seven yellow cards, while Lokomotiva Zagreb were shown four yellows and committed 39 fouls. Expect midfield battles to be fierce given this track record, with disruptions likely due to tactical fouls. Slaven’s slightly higher pass accuracy (1102 passes at 85 percent compared to Lokomotiva’s 625 at 72 percent) indicates they may opt for a more measured build-up, whereas Lokomotiva could exploit transitions and set pieces—especially given Pajač’s threat.

Given the above, the best value bet favors Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Asian Handicap or Draw No Bet market, minimizing risk in a match that could just as easily end level as swing away. For goals, with both teams’ defensive frailties and Lokomotiva’s recent attacking flurry, over 2.5 goals is a realistic target. However, Slaven’s scoring struggles should also be weighed, making Both Teams To Score: Yes a slightly more cautious pick.

Team Analysis

Slaven Belupo: Their last outing was a 0-2 home defeat against Hajduk Split, highlighting a worrying lack of firepower despite reasonable possession and passing statistics. Prior to this, Slaven struggled to break down Varazdin, losing 0-2 again at home, though a 2-2 draw against Rijeka proved they can compete with the upper-middle tier when their attack clicks. Interestingly, their defensive lapses—conceding four against Lokomotiva in their last head-to-head—remain an ongoing concern, especially given a tendency to give up quick transitions and set-piece opportunities.

Lokomotiva Zagreb: Entering on the back of a confidence-boosting 3-0 victory over Gorica, Lokomotiva have demonstrated more effective game management and clinical finishing. Their ability to turn midfield turnovers into counter-attacks has paid dividends, with Dusan Vukovic and Pajač emerging as crucial players in recent wins. Lokomotiva followed their strong showing against Gorica with a 1-1 draw vs Istra 1961 and a tough 2-1 victory at Vukovar 1991, underlining their ability to grind out results even when not at their attacking peak.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Zagreb stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Slaven Belupo the favourite

• Moneyline Slaven Belupo 2.34 | Lokomotiva Zagreb 2.84
• Draw 3.23
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.91 | Under 2.5 1.82
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.75 | No 1.95

Pre-match odds marginally favor Slaven Belupo, likely due to their home record and tight historical margins between the sides. However, Lokomotiva Zagreb have the upward momentum and attacking form as per recent performances, making their odds particularly attractive for punters seeking value. The draw remains a notable possibility, aligning with the clubs’ tendency for stalemates and both teams’ inconsistencies in front of goal. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are well-priced, reflecting the expectation of open, end-to-end football and defensive nerves on both sides.

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Possible Starting Lineups

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My take on the Match

This fixture is likely to produce goals and drama. Lokomotiva Zagreb arrive with the superior attacking edge, while Slaven Belupo look to their experienced core to engineer a home response. However, the evidence suggests Lokomotiva’s current momentum and effectiveness on the break gives them the slight edge—especially if Pajač and Vukovic can maintain form. My main pick is Lokomotiva Zagreb Draw No Bet, taking into account both their improved efficiency front of goal and Slaven’s home resilience. With recent data showing both sides’ tendency to concede and create, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are attractive supplementary plays.

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