Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 Prediction: 1. HNL 27.02.2026

As we approach the late February fixture in the Croatian 1. HNL, Slaven Belupo host Istra 1961 at Gradski Stadion, Koprivnica. While both sides sit at mid-table Slaven Belupo edging Istra by just a single point this clash is characterized by the hunt for consistency and invaluable points in the run up to the final third of the campaign. Interestingly, both managers, Mario Gregurina and Oriol Riera, have adopted a similar tactical blueprint (4-2-3-1), making this encounter a true test of execution and discipline rather than formation-based innovation.

Keep a close eye on Ljuban Crepulja for the home side his creative play from midfield has accounted for crucial assists, while Josip Mitrović brings directness and goal threat up front. For Istra 1961, the dynamic showing of Emil Frederiksen on the wings and the finishing prowess of Smail Prevljak have been bright spots in what’s otherwise been a tumultuous recent run.

The “hot stat”? Across their last five matches, Slaven Belupo have registered a notable 56 shots an indicator of offensive intent, even if the conversion rate (4 goals) doesn’t fully reflect their attacking presence.

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Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 prediction

Given current form and historical balance between these teams, the marginal edge sits with Slaven Belupo at home. The hosts have had more attacking output and hold a slight psychological advantage, having not lost to Istra in their last four meetings at Gradski Stadion. Although neither team comes in sparkling form (Slaven: 1 win in 4, Istra: 1 win in 5), Belupo’s recent ability to generate attacking opportunities (56 shots in five matches) combined with Istra’s away struggles (only 3 goals in last five) tip the scales for a home result.

Both teams have been disciplined in defence, but high card counts signal potential midfield battles and disruptions. Slaven Belupo have amassed 6 yellows in their last five, while Istra notched up 10 suggesting a scrappy encounter. Ball possession is relatively even, but Belupo’s higher shot tally and superior set-piece execution (1 free kick goal in recent matches) could prove decisive against an Istra side prone to lapses their 4-0 defeat to Dinamo Zagreb and 2-3 stumble against Vukovar highlight defensive vulnerabilities.

Team Analysis

Slaven Belupo Recent Games: The Pharmaceutists have had a roller-coaster February, splitting points with Vukovar 1991 (2-2) before impressively shutting out Lokomotiva Zagreb (2-0). However, a 0-2 home defeat to Hajduk Split and another by the same scoreline against Varazdin expose cracks in their defensive structure when facing pressure from quick forwards. That said, there’s a resilience in Mario Gregurina’s side a quality they’ll be relying on to secure a much-needed home win and keep pace in the battle for European spots.

Istra 1961 Recent Games: Oriol Riera’s men will feel stung by the harsh 0-4 schooling at Dinamo and a dispiriting 0-2 home loss to Gorica. A 2-1 triumph over Hajduk Split showed their capacity for upsets, but a slim 1-1 draw at Lokomotiva and a narrow 2-3 fall against Vukovar reveal frailties under pressure. The main concern remains up top: aside from a solitary goal in their last three, Istra have struggled with creativity and sharpness, reflected in their meagre tally of 33 shots across the last five.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Slaven Belupo the favourite

• Moneyline Slaven Belupo 2.10 | Istra 1961 3.50
• Draw 3.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.25 | Under 2.5 1.68
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.96 | No 1.83

Bookmakers have assigned edge to the hosts, with Slaven Belupo averaging 2.10 for a win and Istra’s away upset potential marked by odds exceeding 3.50. This is logical given the home side’s historical resilience and minor edge in goal-creating actions, but the relative lack of goals in both camps feeds stronger value to under 2.5 goals and “No” on both teams to score. Draw odds are not excessively lengthy, reflecting their history of close encounters four of their last six have been draws or decided by a single goal.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Slaven Belupo possible starting eleven

Gregurina is likely to stick with the tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1, relying on Hadžikić’s experienced hands in goal and a defensive quartet led by Božić and the tenacious Žuta, who’s popped up with crucial goals recently. In midfield, Crepulja serves as the creative linchpin centrally, ably supported by Cubelic. Up front, Mitrović’s direct running and Lepinjica’s hold-up play form a fluid frontline with Dabro and Qestaj ready to exploit any spaces behind Istra’s defensive line. Watch for Crepulja and Žuta to dictate tempo and threaten from set pieces.

Istra 1961 possible starting eleven

Oriol Riera’s 4-2-3-1 likely remains intact, built on Kolic’s command of his box and a steady, if sometimes mistake-prone, back four. Radošević is tasked with ball recovery and dictating build-up from deep; Lončar and Frederiksen add thrust and creativity. Up front, Prevljak’s finishing will be key if Istra can unlock his service, they stand a puncher’s chance. Key to their stability will be containing Belupo’s movement between the lines, but their main trump card may be swift transitions and set pieces.

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The Verdict

This promises a tight, tactically absorbing contest rather than an all-out attacking spectacle. Slaven Belupo’s tangible home edge, higher shot volume, and ability to seize initiative in big moments gives them the nod here. While Istra can cause issues via Prevljak’s finishing and the drive of Frederiksen, their patchy recent form and defensive vulnerabilities on the road can’t be ignored. Our main prediction is Slaven Belupo Draw No Bet: a low-risk approach for punters, with under 2.5 goals and a likely edge to the hosts in key moments. Expect a match that swings on midfield battles, set pieces, and the composure of both keepers every point vital as the top half tightens up in 1. HNL.

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