Slaven Belupo vs Gorica Prediction: 05.12.2025 1. HNL 2025/26

The 1. HNL’s regular season continues as Slaven Belupo hosts Gorica at Gradski Stadion, Koprivnica. Both teams occupy mid-table positions, making this clash a vital test for their ambitions. While Slaven Belupo come into this fixture tighter at the back, Gorica’s away form presents intriguing uncertainty. The midfield battle, anchored by Slaven’s Adriano Jagusic and Gorica’s Jurica Pršir, could shape the tempo and influence the final outcome.

For Slaven Belupo, in-form striker Ilija Nestorovski, with three goals in his last three league outings, will be the key attacking threat. Gorica are looking to their creative engine Jurica Pršir, who has been instrumental in dictating possession and launching attacks from midfield.

Recent stats highlight Slaven Belupo’s ability to stay unbeaten in their last four home games, while Gorica’s nine corners earned in their last five matches underscore their set-piece threat.

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Slaven Belupo vs Gorica prediction

Given Slaven Belupo’s robust recent form—four games unbeaten and a strong home advantage—the most valuable match prediction is a home win or Draw No Bet on Slaven Belupo. Their defense has looked disciplined, conceding just three goals in the last four matches, and their attackers, spearheaded by Nestorovski, are in sharp form. Gorica, by contrast, struggle for consistency on the road, and their recent fixture against high-flying Dinamo Zagreb (0-2) demonstrated vulnerabilities against organized teams.

Key tactical dynamics will revolve around ball retention: Slaven Belupo have slightly lower pass completion (824 out of 1116) than Gorica, but their direct play and ability to win fouls (36 in their last five) often break up the rhythm. Both teams tally seven yellow cards in their last five games, indicating a physical contest. Gorica’s set-piece prowess with nine corners could test Slaven Belupo, but Belupo’s compact defensive organization is well-suited to limit high-quality chances.

Team Analysis

Slaven Belupo: Their last match, a 1-1 draw against Istra 1961, demonstrated resilience despite being challenged by Istra’s pressing game. Nestorovski’s hold-up play, combined with Jagusic’s midfield dynamism, ensured Slaven created enough threat, while their defense, led by Tomislav Božić, largely kept Istra at bay. Over their last four matches, Slaven’s record (one win, three draws) reflects a team that rarely gets beaten but sometimes struggles to turn control into victories.

Gorica: Gorica’s previous outing ended in a 0-2 home defeat to Dinamo Zagreb—a performance marked by a struggle to create clear chances. Their midfield, orchestrated by Jurica Pršir, attempted to set the rhythm, but defensive lapses allowed Dinamo to capitalize. In the preceding games, Gorica’s form (win vs Istra 1961, draw with Vukovar 1991, emphatic win over Lokomotiva Zagreb) signals inconsistency, especially defensively, as shown by ten goals conceded in their last five away games.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Slaven Belupo vs Gorica stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Slaven Belupo the favourite

• Moneyline Slaven Belupo 2.05 | Gorica 3.50
• Draw 3.25
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.70
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.80

Slaven Belupo open as favourites with the bookmakers, reflecting their superior home form and Gorica’s away instability. The modest price for home win underscores public confidence in Belupo’s defensive solidity. Odds suggest a low-scoring game, fitting the data from both teams’ recent matches, and the “No” on both teams to score aligns with Gorica’s struggle to break down compact defenses on the road.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Slaven Belupo possible starting eleven

Slaven Belupo will most likely line up in a familiar 4-2-3-1, building their play through the energetic Jagusic and the creative Cubelic in midfield. The defense is anchored by Božić and Kovačić, ensuring stability, while striker Nestorovski’s form makes him the player to watch up top. Expect Suto to provide pace on the flank, complementing Mitrović’s work rate and Nestorovski’s goal threat.

Gorica possible starting eleven

Gorica are expected to maintain their 4-3-3 system. Pršir remains the heartbeat in midfield, linking play and looking to release Cuic and Gashi in attack. Matijaš is a safe pair of hands in goal, supported by a defense that will need to be alert against Slaven’s direct approach. Watch out for Pozo’s passing range and Perić’s physical presence at the back.

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My take on the Match

My main prediction is that Slaven Belupo will edge this contest, making the Draw No Bet on the hosts the safest approach. Their undefeated run in recent matches, coupled with a tactical framework that limits high-quality chances against them, bodes well, especially at home. Gorica’s lack of cutting edge away from home and vulnerability at the back could tip the encounter in Belupo’s favour. Given form, style, and statistical trends, expect a closely contested game with Slaven Belupo holding the cards for a marginal yet deserved victory.

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